Goldman Sachs Analysis: S&P 500 Q2 EPS Grew 45%, But Nearly Half Came from Investment Gains, One-Third from AI Infrastructure
According to the latest internal report from Goldman Sachs' sales and trading division, S&P 500 constituent companies' Q2 EPS year-over-year growth reached as high as 45%. However, analysis indicates that if fair value changes in equity investments of large tech companies are excluded, this growth rate would drop to 26%, suggesting that about half of the "record-breaking" earnings growth came from book revaluation rather than actual operating profits. Furthermore, AI infrastructure-related stocks contributed approximately one-third of the S&P 500's overall EPS growth, highlighting the high concentration of earnings. Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the earnings foundation supporting current valuations is far more fragile than surface numbers suggest, with the median S&P 500 company's Q2 EPS growth being only 12%. Concurrently, single-day trading volume for S&P 500 call options hit a new historical high, with actual volatility exceeding implied volatility expectations by more than four times, yet market participants have not shown significant signs of nervousness.
Source:华尔街见闻 · Source Link
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