"Big Short" investor Steve Eisman: AI boom has an "Achilles' heel," but it's too early to short now
Eisman points out that the "Achilles' heel" of the AI boom lies in its heavy reliance on OpenAI and Anthropic. He states that these two companies contribute approximately 70% of AI revenue from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, as well as 25% to 35% of cloud revenue, while about half of Oracle's approximately $600 billion in backlog orders comes from OpenAI. Eisman believes that large language models (LLMs) lack a moat, users frequently switch models, and Chinese open-source competitors offer lower prices, which could eventually trigger a price war. This, in turn, could impact the capital expenditures of hyperscale cloud providers, reversing the entire AI supply chain. However, he emphasizes that he currently lacks the data, similar to what he had before shorting subprime mortgages, to prove that a market collapse has begun. Therefore, it is too early to short, and he himself remains "quite bullish."
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