VanEck researchers found that eight of 12 signals in its "Bitcoin Capitulation Check" are currently flashing, suggesting the market is nearing or in an accumulation phase. This coincides with long-term holders shedding roughly 356,000 Bitcoin over the past month, pushing their share of supply below 60%. The asset manager noted that previous bear markets averaged 12.7 months from peak to max drawdown, and Bitcoin is now in its 11th month from its October 2025 peak. However, VanEck warned against treating these signals as surefire short-term buy indicators, expecting a shallower trough this cycle due to spot Bitcoin ETFs and a larger institutional holder base.