West Africa, the world's most important cocoa producing region, is facing a triple threat of El Niño, the spread of black pod disease, and a shortage of agricultural inputs, leading to increased concerns about supply prospects. Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, is expected to see its output decline by approximately 20% to 1.75 million tons this season. Ghana, the second largest producer, is projected to experience a 13% drop in output, while Nigeria's production is expected to fall by 2.4% to 288,000 tons. Consequently, New York cocoa futures have surged by over 70% since the confirmation of El Niño in June this year. Market expectations for a global supply surplus in the 2026-27 crop season have significantly narrowed to approximately 25,000 tons, far below previous levels, indicating extremely limited market buffer.