Variant Perception noted in a report that the recent rise in the US 10-year government bond yield has been driven by the real term premium, rather than inflation expectations or interest rate expectations. This can be seen as a "normalization," with the real term premium returning to its post-Global Financial Crisis range. The firm believes the fair value for the US 10-year government bond yield is between 4.10% and 4.35%, and stated that while the current gap is significant, it is not unprecedented, as similar gaps emerged in 2023 and 2024 and eventually closed. The US 10-year government bond yield closed at 4.782% last Friday.