Goldman Sachs' latest research report: Rising interest rates do not equal a US stock market crash; earnings growth is the key to a bull market.
Goldman Sachs' latest research report on September 11 states that rising interest rates are not the end of the US stock bull market; earnings growth is the key driver. The firm believes that despite the 30-year US Treasury yield surging to a nearly 20-year high of 5.3%, the US stock bull market has a solid foundation as long as corporate earnings remain strong and balance sheets are healthy. Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that historical data shows the S&P 500's average return was -2% in the initial three months of Federal Reserve rate hikes, but the average return soared to +9% in the 12 months following the hikes. The firm expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points next week and forecasts S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) to reach $340 in 2026 (a 24% year-over-year increase) and $385 in 2027 (a 13% year-over-year increase). Goldman Sachs advises companies to enhance earnings growth through AI investments, mergers and acquisitions, and spin-offs to withstand valuation pressure.
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