JPMorgan Chase's report indicates that previously set economic "red lines," such as the $100 oil price, have been breached, and the market is now pricing in an additional 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply loss. Analysts believe that if the September 24 meeting between the US and China fails to yield a diplomatic breakthrough, the assumption that supply disruptions are temporary will be difficult to sustain. If Middle Eastern supply flows remain at current levels, oil prices in Q4 could be approximately $7 higher than originally forecast, and about $8 higher by December 2026.