Deutsche Bank: Gold Price Rally Driven by Reserve Management Institutions, Strait of Hormuz Conflict and Oil Price Decline Outweigh Federal Reserve Rate Hikes
Deutsche Bank's latest metal flow report indicates an anomalous rise in gold prices following the Federal Reserve's rate hike, despite no significant increase in volume from conventional buyers (commercial and non-commercial purchases, CTA positions, China ETF inflows). The bank suggests that the driving force behind this gold price rally points to reserve management institutions. Geopolitical conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz and the simultaneous decline in energy prices have a far more critical impact on gold than the Federal Reserve's rate hike stance. Falling oil prices mean reduced foreign exchange income for energy-exporting countries, increasing pressure on reserve allocation and thereby enhancing gold's attractiveness as a non-sovereign reserve asset. Deutsche Bank concludes that gold's sensitivity to oil prices is rising and maintains its strategy: if crude oil prices increase in the coming week, buy gold on algorithmic selling pressure; if crude oil prices show a reversal signal, actively long gold.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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