Morgan Stanley's Asia team released research in September, stating that AI is reshaping the flow of advertising budgets in China's internet sector. However, at least until 2030, this is more akin to a redistribution within an existing market rather than a new cycle of advertising growth.

The firm estimates that by 2030, the total identifiable AI monetization scale will be approximately 291 billion RMB, with AI-attributed transaction commissions accounting for about 281 billion RMB of that. By 2040, as AI further participates in user discovery, decision-making, and transaction execution, the scale of AI-attributed transaction commissions could reach 1.24 trillion RMB. The survey shows that 72% of advertisers stated that AI has not changed their total budget, and 74% believe that cross-platform spending is more concentrated, indicating that AI is currently primarily reallocating budgets rather than creating incremental growth.