McKinsey has raised its forecast for the global semiconductor market size in 2030 by 44% to $2.3 trillion, primarily driven by a cumulative six-fold increase in DRAM prices.
McKinsey's latest research has revised its baseline forecast for the global semiconductor market size in 2030 from $1.6 trillion (projected in autumn 2025) to $2.3 trillion, an increase of approximately 44%. The report indicates that this upward revision is not due to an increase in shipments, but rather to the rising average selling prices (ASPs) of advanced process chips and memory. DRAM prices, for instance, have surged approximately sixfold since early 2023, returning to their 2011 peak. AI infrastructure investment is the core driver of this structural change, with the five largest hyperscale cloud service providers planning to invest trillions of dollars in AI infrastructure in 2026 and 2027, continuously pushing up demand and prices for related chips.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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