On Monday, the dollar fell and bond markets stabilized as investors pared bets on an aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Trading was light in Asia due to holidays in China and South Korea, with markets largely influenced by Wall Street's performance last Friday.
The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened down 8 points, or 0.04%, at 23,963 points; the Tech Index fell 19 points, or 0.47%, to 4,138 points; and the China Enterprises Index dropped 9 points, or 0.12%, to 8,021 points.
Last week's data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in September, with non-farm payrolls for the prior two months also significantly revised down, virtually ruling out another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors now assign only a 22% probability to a Fed hike this month, down from 64% a week ago.
The increased likelihood of a Fed pause this month pushed the Tokyo Nikkei Index to open up 804 points, or 1.18%, at 69,113 points, having risen by as much as 1,656 points during the session.
The recent global bond sell-off paused on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly retreating to 5.2643% and the 2-year yield at 4.8143%. The dollar weakened on reduced rate hike expectations, with the euro rebounding from a 17-month low to $1.1243 against the dollar, the pound slightly rising to $1.3241 against the dollar, and the dollar marginally falling to 157.81 against the yen.
Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers, stated that while the labor market is generally stable, last Friday's revisions indicate that the U.S. economy experienced job losses in two of the first nine months of this year, and the risk of further job losses means the Fed cannot hike rates by another 100 basis points.
Cedric Lam, Senior Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank, noted that although recent U.S. data has started to show inflation below expectations, market technicals, driven by forced selling from hedge funds and real estate investment trusts, might temporarily delay the downward trend in bond yields. He added that he does not expect this to be a prolonged sell-off and has taken an opportunistic bullish stance on 10-year U.S. Treasuries.
Elias Haddad, Head of Global Markets Strategy at BBH, believes that policy tightening in other regions and the increased likelihood of a Fed pause in October are negative for the dollar, but the outperformance of the U.S. economy and strong foreign demand for U.S. securities still present upside risks for the dollar.
In commodities, oil prices remained elevated after Yemen's Houthi group claimed to have launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened down 0.04% on Monday, as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike softened following cooler US employment data.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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