JPMorgan Chase: Short-term U.S. Treasury yields still biased upwards, active fund selling pressure may exceed CTA extreme short reversal risk.
JPMorgan Chase noted in its latest report that short-term U.S. Treasury yields still face upward pressure. The report analyzed that although quantitative funds (CTAs) have reached an extreme bearish stance on U.S. Treasuries, which could trigger short covering if yields turn downward, active bond managers are continuously reducing their previously accumulated duration long positions. Their capital scale is much larger than that of quantitative funds, so selling pressure may offset the risk of a rebound from CTA short covering. At the same time, risk parity funds are limited in their pace of adding positions due to high bond volatility.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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