JPMorgan Chase: Alibaba's AI business is expected to achieve "self-sufficiency" ahead of schedule, with a historic profitability inflection point anticipated in Q4 2026.
JPMorgan Chase released a research report, predicting that Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba's cloud business profitability will exceed expectations, and AI investments are likely to be absorbed internally ahead of schedule. Its profit structure is expected to reach a critical turning point in the quarter ending December 2026. By then, the cloud business EBITA is projected to surpass the operating losses from AI models and applications for the first time. JPMorgan Chase lowered its target price for Alibaba's U.S. shares from $210 to $200 and for its Hong Kong stocks from HK$205 to HK$195, but simultaneously raised its valuation multiple from 16x to 17x, maintaining an "Overweight" rating. The bank believes that the approaching inflection point of the combined EBITA for cloud business and AI effectively reduces the uncertainty of its earnings trajectory.
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