US Treasury Considers Cutting or Eliminating 20-Year Bond Issuance; BNP Paribas Warns of Potential Market Panic, Citi Recommends Positioning
The U.S. Treasury faces a critical decision on whether to cut or even eliminate the issuance of 20-year Treasury bonds, which resumed in 2020. Several Wall Street institutions anticipate that the Treasury may signal its intentions clearly in the quarterly refunding statement on November 4. BNP Paribas warns that such a move could be interpreted by the market as a sign of panic, suggesting the Treasury's policy toolkit is exhausted, and potentially emboldening bond vigilantes. Citigroup, on the other hand, advises investors to preemptively position themselves in 20-year Treasuries to capture their potential outperformance relative to 10-year Treasuries. Citi expects the single auction sizes for 20-year and 30-year Treasuries to each be reduced by $3 billion, with the gap filled by short-term Treasury bills. The 20-year U.S. Treasury has long exhibited a "hump" in the yield curve, with its yield consistently higher than both 10-year and 30-year bonds, leading to high financing costs. Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also publicly stated it should be canceled.
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