Goldman Sachs warns: AI funding pause brings "false calm" to credit market, $150 billion chip debt shock may hit in next two months.
Jeffrey Papai, a credit sales trader at Goldman Sachs, stated in his latest report that the current stability in investment-grade credit spreads is not due to a dissipation of risk, but rather the pause in financing by AI tech giants since September 2025. He warned that this window of opportunity might close within the next two months, as approximately $150 billion in chip financing from companies like Broadcom, SpaceX, and OpenAI enters the preparation or issuance phase. He anticipates that AI-related investment-grade bond issuance will reach $275 billion in 2027, accounting for 20% to 25% of short-end investment-grade supply, significantly higher than this year's approximately 10%. At that time, regional banks, utility companies, and OpenAI's GPU loans will compete for insurance capital, putting significant pressure on the credit curve.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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