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Forecasting the market
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Polymarket probability of "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30" drops to 25%, down 25% in a week
According to monitoring by Svmuu Seer’s Oracle Channel, the Polymarket probability of "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30" has dropped to 25%, a 25% decrease in a single week. The total t
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A smart money address purchased over $810,000 on Flavio Cobolli defeating Zachary Svajda in the 4th Round of the 2026 French Open Men's Singles
Monitoring by Svmuu Seer shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "2026 French Open Men's Singles 4th Round - Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda", a smart money address (0xf8831548531d56ad6a433149
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If Michael Saylor had sold Bitcoin yesterday, Surprised-Legacy would have won $200,000.
Svmuu reported that Arkham posted on X platform, stating that prediction market trader "Surprised-Legacy" would win $200,000 if they correctly predicted that Michael Saylor sold Bitcoin yesterday. The
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Gate Prediction Market: BTC Holding $70,000 Expected to Prevail, Views Diverge on Further Upside
Svmuureports that the latest data from the Gate Prediction Market shows that in the prediction related to "whether Bitcoin will be above the following price levels by June 1st," the probability of BTC
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Wintermute: Will Provide Liquidity for Prediction Markets
Svmuu News Wintermute stated that it is expanding its institutional trading business to prediction markets. Wintermute will provide two-way market liquidity for event contracts on major venues to redu
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U.S. Department of Justice charges a Google engineer with making $1.2 million through insider trading on Polymarket
Svmuu reported that the U.S. Department of Justice has charged a Google engineer with allegedly using insider information to trade on Polymarket, making a profit of $1.2 million. (Solid Intel)
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Polymarket Executive: Perpetual Contract Testing Launched, No New Testers for Now
Svmuu reported that Josh, Vice President of DeFi Engineering at prediction market Polymarket, posted on platform X, stating that the perpetual contract testing on the platform has been opened. Users a
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Svmuu Noon News
1. HYPE broke through 70 USDT to reach a new high, with a 24-hour increase of 7%. 2. BNB saw over 12.5 million USD in liquidations in the past 24 hours, with the largest single liquidation being 395,0
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predict.fun: Spurs’ probability of winning the 2026 NBA championship rises to 65%, up 38% in 24 hours
Monitoring by Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel shows that in the predict.fun "2026 NBA Champion" prediction event, the Spurs' probability of winning has risen to 65%, up 38% in 24 hours; the Knicks' probabi
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A smart money address purchased $956,000 worth of "Spurs Beat Thunder" in the NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals Game 7.
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, in the Polymarket "NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals Game 7 Thunder vs. Spurs" prediction event, a smart money address (0x84cfffc3f16dcc353094de
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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. HYPE short sellers incur losses exceeding $36 million, as whale Loracle closes short positions in BTC, LIT, TON, and VVV; 2. Trump: An agreement with Iran is very close; if the deal is unfair to th
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A smart money address purchased $300,000 worth of Thunder to beat Spurs in NBA Western Conference Finals Game 7
Monitoring by Svmuu Seer Channel shows that in the Polymarket "NBA Western Conference Finals G7 Thunder vs. Spurs" prediction event, a smart money address (0xbddf61af533ff524d27154e589d2d7a81510c684)
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a16z crypto: Prediction Markets Still Need to Overcome Manipulation Risk and Information Bias Challenges
Svmuu News a16z Crypto published an article analyzing the unique value and challenges faced by prediction markets. Prediction markets allow participants to trade on event outcomes, aggregating dispers
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Another upset: Polymarket user loses $157.5K betting on BLG victory
Svmuu News: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi’s monitoring, the Polymarket account TrevorPlovdivBulgariaForHisBirthday predicted a BLG victory in tonight’s LoL match between BLG and WE, incurring a
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Grayscale: Hyperliquid Could Evolve into an On-Chain Financial Infrastructure Giant, Challenging the Traditional Derivatives Market
Svmuu reports that digital asset management firm Grayscale stated in its latest report that the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid is rapidly evolving from a crypto perpetual contract exchange
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Svmuu Evening Brief
1. The U.S. military states that the naval blockade against Iranian ports remains in effect; 2. Kyle Samani criticizes Hyperliquid: Its design architecture is only suitable for centralized environment
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Kalshi Launches American Power Index KPOW to Track Shifts in US Bipartisan Power Dynamics
Svmuureports that Kalshi has announced on the X platform the launch of the Kalshi American Power Index. This index is designed to track shifts in the balance of power between the Democratic and Republ
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Polymarket Releases This Week's Update: World Cup Page Launched with Feature Testing
Svmuu reported that prediction market Polymarket has released its platform update for this week, which includes: launching the World Cup page with feature testing; introducing perpetual contract funct
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Kalshi Crypto Business Lead: Cryptocurrency Accounts for 70% of Platform Prediction Market Trading Volume
Svmuu News: John Wang, head of Kalshi's crypto business, posted on X platform, saying in a joking tone that "Kalshi is not a cryptocurrency company." John Wang stated that Kalshi is the first regulate
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Svmuu Noon News
1. "New Stock God" Serenity: AAOI, SIVE, Foci, and Shunsin are the four stocks with the best current risk-reward ratio; 2. NBA star Tristan Thompson goes 50x short on HYPE, entry price $66.95; 3. Iran
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Polymarket“Strategy Likely to Sell Bitcoin Before May 31” Probability Drops to 23%, Down 17% in 24 Hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket of “Strategy selling Bitcoin before May 31” has dropped to 23%, a 17% decline in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of a sal
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Strategy repurchases 411 BTC, Polymarket’s probability of selling coins this year still stands at 89%
According to monitoring by crypto analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), Strategy withdrew 411 BTC from Coinbase three hours ago, exactly matching the 411 BTC it transferred to Coinbase the previous day. Ai Yi
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Wintermute Enters Prediction Market Making, Expanding into Event Contract Liquidity
Svmuu reports that quantitative market maker Wintermute has announced its entry into the prediction market space, providing two-way quote liquidity services for multiple mainstream event contract plat
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Polymarket: CLOB Outage Affects Trading, Fix Deployment Restart at 21:10 Today
Svmuureports that Polymarket stated the CLOB API is currently under maintenance, impacting trading functionality. The project team has identified the CLOB issue affecting trades and will restart the C
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Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin to reclaim $125K by late 2026, reaching $300K in 2029
Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 before reaching $300,000 in 2029 under its base case, with a bull case of $500,000.
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Kalshi traders see rising odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal, with a 68% chance before Jan. 1, 2028, following Iran's claim of a revenue-sharing deal with Oman.
Kalshi traders see rising odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal, with a 68% chance before Jan. 1, 2028, following Iran's claim of a revenue-sharing deal with Oman. Specifically, the od
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Ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/nvidia-earnings-preview-what-expect-q4-2024-2024-02-20/">prediction market</a> traders are betting on the company to beat earnings expectations, with a 97% probability of success.
Traders on the online prediction market Polymarket believe there’s a 97% chance NVIDIA will beat Wall Street’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expectations when it reports earnings after market clos
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Judge stays CFTC's civil case against US soldier over illegal Polymarket bet, regulator now seeks to weigh in on criminal proceedings
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, while the regulator is attempting to weigh in on the related criminal case.
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Needham Says Crypto Rally Has Strong Momentum, Prediction Market Kalshi Expects Bitcoin to Reach $90,000 This Year
Needham stated that the cryptocurrency rebound is strong, believing that the large-scale sell-off has largely ended and investor attention is shifting towards digital assets. The prediction market Kal
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Yahoo Finance Review: Gemini exchange offers bank-grade security and regulation, but has higher trading fees and limited coin selection
Reviews indicate that the Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss brothers in 2014, operates as a New York trust company and is strictly regulated by state banking authorities, having reported no l
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Argus Downgrades DraftKings (DKNG) to Hold From Buy, Removes Price Target on Rising Costs, Tax Uncertainty
Argus noted that DraftKings' stock price has fallen by 43.22% over the past year, primarily due to high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes, and increased competition in prediction m
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
Under the planned tie-up, Gemini Titan will become the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. Gemini w
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Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Bans in Multiple US States Amid Legal Battles, While CFTC Defends Industry and Proposes New Rules
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is currently blocked for customers in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada, with Washington state authorities accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling bu
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Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin to end 2026 near current levels, around $75,000
Speculators on the prediction market platform estimate Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts. This forecast suggests a slight decline from
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Prediction Markets Increasingly Skeptical on Near-Term US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices the chances of a deal at 11% before March 1, 2027, 22% before January 1, 2028, and 35% before January 20, 2029.
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Research shows Bitcoin contracts on prediction market Kalshi increasingly lead Binance price discovery as BTC breaks $68,000
Research by financial forecasting firm Synth has found that the price movements of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi are increasingly predictive of subsequent Bitcoin price changes on Binance. Sin
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Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi Prediction Market Trading to Its ~3,000 Institutional Clients
The investment bank will help its institutional clients execute block event contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange. This move aims to increase institutional participation in prediction market
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
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Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin Attorney General in anticipation of state lawsuit over sports contracts
Prediction market platform Novig has filed a lawsuit against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett. The move is preemptive, as Novig anticipates Wisconsin wi
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Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting with cryptocurrency CEOs at the White House this Wednesday, sources say
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House this Wednesday that will bring together CEOs of cryptocurrency, prediction market, and artificial intelligence companies,
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Hyperliquid ETFs See Inflow Reversal Amidst Rising Perpetual Futures Competition
Funds including Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG), Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), and 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) initially performed well, with HYPG nearing $113 million in AUM and the la
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Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
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Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
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Gemini shares slide after reporting $108 million loss; Winklevoss says 'we still have work to do'
The crypto exchange's prediction market volume nearly doubled as it continued expanding beyond traditional crypto trading.
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Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
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US CFTC to hold meeting on Aug. 20 to explore crypto, AI, and prediction market regulations with SEC, without waiting for CLARITY bill
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a meeting for its Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20 to address regulation related to crypto assets, artificial intelligence and pred
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Gemini Exchange: The Path to Regulatory Compliance and Strategic Transformation
Founded in 2014 by the Winklevoss twins, the Gemini exchange is known for its strict regulatory compliance, holding a NYDFS trust charter and CFTC derivatives license. In 2025, Gemini filed for an IPO, and in 2026, it announced its "Gemini 2.0" strategy, shifting its focus to prediction markets and event contracts, while also adjusting its international market presence. Despite facing the Gemini Earn controversy and SEC charges, customer compensation has been completed. The platform is renowned for its security, but users have expressed negative feedback regarding its customer service and account issues.
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Forecasting the market
24H Trending
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1
Japan plans to explore a blockchain-based 24/7 government bond and stock settlement system, aiming to finalize development plans by early 2027.
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Iranian Rial Hits New All-Time Low of 2 Million Per US Dollar, Driving Up Prices for Essentials by Over 70%
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3
Bybit Lists MSTUUSDT TradFi Perpetual Contract With Up to 25x Leverage
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AI is becoming a new gateway to retail, with 38% of surveyed European consumers using it for product research, McKinsey 2026 research finds
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Bybit launches INFQUSDT TradFi Perpetual Contract, with up to 25x leverage
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Trump administration demands Fed Governor Lisa Cook respond by Wednesday to removal case, citing a mortgage document misstatement as cause
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Treasuries Edge Lower Before PCE Data With Fed Risks in Focus
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Ethereum (ETH) Price Today and USD Trend Analysis
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U.S. Dollar Jumps Against Canadian Dollar Amid Trade Spat
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OKX Exchange Newbie Guide to Buying Crypto: P2P and Express Buy Tutorials
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