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Forecasting the market
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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. US CPI annual rate hits a new high since April 2023, spot gold briefly surges approximately $20; 2. Tom Lee: SpaceX's century-defining IPO is the culprit behind the weakening US stock market; its l
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A smart money address purchased $220,000 worth of "Spurs to defeat Knicks" in NBA Finals Game 4
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel, in the Polymarket event "NBA Finals Game 4: Spurs vs Knicks," a smart money address (0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563) that has earned over
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CFTC Launches Public Consultation to Establish Structured Evaluation Framework for Prediction Market Contracts
Svmuu News: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Mike Selig announced the official opening of a public comment period to establish a structured framework for evaluating the types
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Kalshi Crypto Business Lead: The "Top-Tier VC" Narrative Around SBF Is Inaccurate; The Real Mastermind Is "AI Stock God" Leopold
Svmuu reported that John Wang, Head of Crypto Business at prediction market platform Kalshi, stated on X that it is widely believed Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) was a "top-tier venture capitalist" who succ
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Pharos Announces Alpha Summer Event
Svmuu According to official news, Pharos today announced the official launch of the "PROS Never Sleeps: The Alpha Summer" event. This event consists of three major sections, designed to reward ecosyst
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1 Day Until World Cup Countdown; Polymarket Shows "European Country to Win World Cup" Probability at 72%, Ranking First
Svmuu Seer monitoring shows that with one day remaining until the opening match of the World Cup on June 12, the probability of a "European Country Winning the World Cup" on Polymarket is reported at
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CFTC is proposing a new set of rules to regulate prediction markets and avoid obvious manipulation
Svmuu reported that according to sources familiar with the matter, the CFTC is proposing a broad set of new rules to regulate prediction markets. The parameters of these rules will continue to allow m
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Binance Wallet and United Stables Launch U World Cup Trading Event, First Round Prize Pool of $100,000
Svmuu: Binance Wallet has partnered with United Stables ($U) to launch the Football World Cup U Trading Event. During the event, users can trade events in the "World Cup" category using $U on Binance'
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OKX World Cup Prediction Event Opens 1 BTC Exclusive Prize Pool for First Match
According to official sources, OKX’s World Cup prediction event has opened a 1 BTC exclusive prize pool for the opening match of the 2026 World Cup. Users can now participate in predicting the outcome
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A smart money account has purchased over $150,000 worth of shares, predicting the 2026 World Cup champion will be from France, Spain, England, or Argentina.
Monitoring by Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel shows that in the Polymarket "2026 World Cup Winner" prediction event, a smart money address (0xc6a71cad90060abc0c1ff8ebd6f6a8fc02ed504e) purchased 300,000 Sha
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Svmuu Noon News
1. Robinhood prediction markets saw 3.9 billion event contracts in May, with an annualized revenue of approximately $470 million; 2. A whale increased its 50x short position on SP500 to $147 million,
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Polymarket launches new prediction: "Will SpaceX open higher on its second trading day?"
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or eq
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Robinhood’s May Event Contracts Reach 3.9 Billion, Annualized Revenue Approximately $470 Million
Dragonfly investor Omar posted on X platform, stating that Robinhood released data today showing May was the highest trading volume month in the history of its prediction market, with event contract t
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Kalshi perpetual contract volume manipulation? Kalshi crypto head's remarks draw questions from Polymarket team members
Svmuu reported that CNBC recently covered Kalshi Perpetual Contracts, noting that trading volume surpassed $1 billion within the first week of launch. Kalshi's crypto division head John Wang subsequen
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Polymarket is about to launch a combo (combos) feature
Svmuu News: Polymarket’s official developer account posted on platform X, stating that the combo (combos) feature is about to be launched, and the relevant documentation for the feature has been publi
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To prevent insider trading, Kalshi will require some prediction market participants to disclose employer information
Svmuu News Kalshi plans to require some prediction market participants to disclose their employer identity. It is reported that users will need to submit an online form to disclose their employer when
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Predict.fun launches 2026 World Cup prediction event with a total prize pool of $2 million
Svmuureports that Predict.fun has announced the launch of the 2026 World Cup prediction event "Predict Cup," with a total prize pool of $2 million. During the event, users can select up to five suppor
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A savvy investor purchased $54,000 worth of B8 to defeat BIG in the CS2 IEM Cologne 2026 prediction event.
According to the Svmuu Seer Channel, in the Polymarket "CS2 IEM Cologne 2026 B8 vs. BIG" prediction event, a smart trader (address: 0x52911b9d1d9da4d4783fb3280c0ccd6e73f0d4b6) with a win rate of over
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OKX World Cup Prediction Event Introduces Project Partner Mechanism
Svmuu News: According to official sources, the OKX 2026 World Cup Prediction Event will introduce a project partner mechanism, with some matches co-branded and built by collaborating projects. It is r
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BIT: Crypto market bets on strong post-IPO performance for SpaceX
Svmuu reports that BIT Group posted on X platform, stating that with only days remaining until the SpaceX IPO, market expectations are heating up, with a general consensus that the stock is likely to
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Polymarket: "Claude Mythos Model Release Date June 10" probability currently at 74%, up 24% in 24 hours
Svmuu Seer monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "Claude Mythos model release date being June 10" is currently at 74%, up 24% in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability for "Release
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Polymarket "Wembanyama wins NBA Finals MVP" probability rises to 38%, up 17% in 24 hours
Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Wembanyama wins NBA Finals MVP" on Polymarket has risen to 38%, up 17% in 24 hours, surpassing Towns to move into second place; as
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Binance Wallet and Predict.fun Launch Football Carnival PNL Trading Competition with a Total Prize Pool of 300,000 USDT
Svmuureports that Binance Wallet and Predict.fun are launching the 2026 Football Carnival PNL Trading Competition, featuring a total prize pool of 300,000 USDT. Registration and event period runs from
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Polymarket lists new event: "Will Trump attend the 2026 World Cup final in person"
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has listed a new prediction event: "Will U.S. President Donald Trump attend the 2026 World Cup final in person." As one of the key promoters and org
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Judge stays CFTC's civil case against US soldier over illegal Polymarket bet, regulator now seeks to weigh in on criminal proceedings
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, while the regulator is attempting to weigh in on the related criminal case.
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Needham Says Crypto Rally Has Strong Momentum, Prediction Market Kalshi Expects Bitcoin to Reach $90,000 This Year
Needham stated that the cryptocurrency rebound is strong, believing that the large-scale sell-off has largely ended and investor attention is shifting towards digital assets. The prediction market Kal
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Yahoo Finance Review: Gemini exchange offers bank-grade security and regulation, but has higher trading fees and limited coin selection
Reviews indicate that the Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss brothers in 2014, operates as a New York trust company and is strictly regulated by state banking authorities, having reported no l
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Argus Downgrades DraftKings (DKNG) to Hold From Buy, Removes Price Target on Rising Costs, Tax Uncertainty
Argus noted that DraftKings' stock price has fallen by 43.22% over the past year, primarily due to high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes, and increased competition in prediction m
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
Under the planned tie-up, Gemini Titan will become the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. Gemini w
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Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Bans in Multiple US States Amid Legal Battles, While CFTC Defends Industry and Proposes New Rules
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is currently blocked for customers in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada, with Washington state authorities accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling bu
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Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin to end 2026 near current levels, around $75,000
Speculators on the prediction market platform estimate Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts. This forecast suggests a slight decline from
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Prediction Markets Increasingly Skeptical on Near-Term US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices the chances of a deal at 11% before March 1, 2027, 22% before January 1, 2028, and 35% before January 20, 2029.
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Research shows Bitcoin contracts on prediction market Kalshi increasingly lead Binance price discovery as BTC breaks $68,000
Research by financial forecasting firm Synth has found that the price movements of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi are increasingly predictive of subsequent Bitcoin price changes on Binance. Sin
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Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi Prediction Market Trading to Its ~3,000 Institutional Clients
The investment bank will help its institutional clients execute block event contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange. This move aims to increase institutional participation in prediction market
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
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Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin Attorney General in anticipation of state lawsuit over sports contracts
Prediction market platform Novig has filed a lawsuit against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett. The move is preemptive, as Novig anticipates Wisconsin wi
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Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting with cryptocurrency CEOs at the White House this Wednesday, sources say
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House this Wednesday that will bring together CEOs of cryptocurrency, prediction market, and artificial intelligence companies,
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Hyperliquid ETFs See Inflow Reversal Amidst Rising Perpetual Futures Competition
Funds including Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG), Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), and 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) initially performed well, with HYPG nearing $113 million in AUM and the la
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Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
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Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
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Gemini shares slide after reporting $108 million loss; Winklevoss says 'we still have work to do'
The crypto exchange's prediction market volume nearly doubled as it continued expanding beyond traditional crypto trading.
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Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
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US CFTC to hold meeting on Aug. 20 to explore crypto, AI, and prediction market regulations with SEC, without waiting for CLARITY bill
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a meeting for its Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20 to address regulation related to crypto assets, artificial intelligence and pred
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US CFTC cautions prediction market platforms over "deficient" incentive program filings, citing manipulation risks
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance, expressing concern over an increase in "procedurally or substantively deficient" filings from prediction market firms for ince
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Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
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SKALE Labs launches Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired paper-trading sandbox for training AI agents
SKALE Labs launched Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired, paper-trading prediction market sandbox on its zero-gas blockchain, allowing builders to train AI agents before taking them live on Polymarket.
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Gemini Exchange: The Path to Regulatory Compliance and Strategic Transformation
Founded in 2014 by the Winklevoss twins, the Gemini exchange is known for its strict regulatory compliance, holding a NYDFS trust charter and CFTC derivatives license. In 2025, Gemini filed for an IPO, and in 2026, it announced its "Gemini 2.0" strategy, shifting its focus to prediction markets and event contracts, while also adjusting its international market presence. Despite facing the Gemini Earn controversy and SEC charges, customer compensation has been completed. The platform is renowned for its security, but users have expressed negative feedback regarding its customer service and account issues.
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Forecasting the market
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