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Macroeconomics
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Cathie Wood: Growing Demand for Asset Preservation and Cross-Border Allocation Tools May Boost Demand for Bitcoin and Digital Assets
Svmuu News: Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, stated on X that capital outflows from the world’s more unstable countries will provide new upward momentum for Bitcoin and other digital assets. She no
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Serenity: Global markets are undergoing a correction, and it is unclear how long it will last.
Svmuu News: “The White-Haired Stock Guru” Serenity posted on X, stating that global markets are currently undergoing a correction, and it is unclear when it will end. The KOSPI fell 8.18%, with SK Hyn
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Ahead of the PCE data release, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July stands at 65.8%
Svmuu News: According to CME’s “Federal Reserve”: Federal Reserve The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 ba
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Former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan has died at the age of 100
Svmuu News: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has died at the age of 100. According to NBC News, citing his wife, the network’s chief foreign affairs correspondent and chief Washington co
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Warsh: I hope the market will price assets based on real economic conditions, rather than following interpretations from Federal Reserve
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said Wednesday that he hopes financial markets will price securities based on their own assessment of the economy, rather than attempting to price them based
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Donald Trump: “I don’t want to be another Hoover; reaching an agreement is the way to avoid an economic collapse.”
Svmuu News: U.S. President Donald Trump delivered remarks on Wednesday following the conclusion of the G7 summit in France, defending the agreement reached between the United States and Iran and stati
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Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Rebounds After Holding Above $60,000; Market Structure Shows Selling Pressure Has Eased, but Buying Pressure Remains Unconfirmed
Svmuu News: The Bitfinex Alpha report notes that as tensions in the Middle East ease and expectations for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire grow, Bitcoin (BTC) held its $59,200 support level after multiple tests
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Paul Chan: Hong Kong to Launch Public Consultation on Its First Five-Year Plan Next Week, Focusing on the Two Strategic Directions of "AI+" and "Finance+"
Svmuu News: Paul Chan, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, announced in a blog post that the SAR Government will launch a two-month public consultation on Ho
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People's Bank of China: M2 grew 8.6% year-on-year by end of May, M1 grew 5.5% year-on-year
Svmuu reported that the People's Bank of China announced that by the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) balance stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year. The narrow money supply (M1) b
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analyst: Trump's timing in reigniting the possibility of striking Iran is “peculiar,” possibly paving the way for subsequent data
SvmuuNews: Amid Trump's increasingly aggressive statements on Iran, tensions are high today, though attention remains on the upcoming U.S. trading session. Trump stated that negotiations have been dra
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Wintermute: BTC’s Drop Below $62K Not Due to Strategy’s Token Sale; Real Selling Pressure Comes from U.S. Institutions
Svmuureported that market maker Wintermute released a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, with a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting a new low sin
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US stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio rises to 238%, hitting a new all-time high
Svmuu News The Kobeissi Letter posted on X platform, stating that the ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP has risen to a record high of 238%. The current total stock market value stands a
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“New Stock God” Serenity Reiterates on LeaderDrive: Stock Remains Severely Undervalued, But I Cannot Predict Short-Term Fluctuations
Svmuu, "New Stock God" Serenity posted again on platform X: "If we take into account component costs, existing customers, and the size of the robotics market, LeaderDrive's stock price remains severel
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Cathie Wood: Next phase of this cycle may feature accelerating economic growth, declining inflation, lower interest rates, and a stronger US dollar
Svmuu News ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood posted on platform X that the latest jobs report came in stronger than expected, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 172,000 compared to a market expectation of
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Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin and other risk assets retreat, while value stocks are relatively resilient
Svmuu reported that Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that despite strong U.S. employment data, not only cryptocurrencies but almost all asset classes are currently weakening overall
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US dollar speculative long positions reached $16.5 billion, hitting a new high since February 2025
Svmuu reported that The Kobeissi Letter posted on X platform, stating that the scale of speculative long positions in the US dollar has increased to $16.5 billion, the highest level since February 202
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China's fixed-asset investment nationwide fell by 7.2% year-on-year from January to August, with private investment down by 10.1%.
According to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August 2026, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 29,309.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrea
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BIS sees no signs of stress in markets overall, risk appetite has remained 'remarkably resilient'
BIS sees no signs of stress in markets overall, risk appetite has remained 'remarkably resilient'
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This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions. Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference.
This week is packed with macroeconomic events, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference and update the Summary of
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China's M2 money supply rose 7.5% YoY in August, slightly below the estimated 7.6%, while new yuan loans for Jan-Aug totaled CNY10.44T, missing the estimated CNY10.784T.
China's M2 money supply rose 7.5% YoY in August, slightly below the estimated 7.6%, while new yuan loans for Jan-Aug totaled CNY10.44T, missing the estimated CNY10.784T.
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Cathie Wood believes Wall Street has not priced in the upcoming economic boom.
Cathie Wood, in ARK Invest's latest monthly market commentary, stated that the global economy is in a transformative period driven by the convergence of five exponential technologies: artificial intel
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Yahoo Finance Analysis: Bitcoin has historically performed poorly in September, but typically sees strong rebounds in October and November.
Yahoo Finance analysis indicates that after Bitcoin surged 25% in August, September has historically been a poor performing month, with an average return of -2.93%, earning it the nickname "Rektember.
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Former Trump Economic Advisor Hassett: There's a Big Issue with Diesel Because It's a Refined Product
Former Trump Economic Advisor Hassett: There's a Big Issue with Diesel Because It's a Refined Product
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France lowers 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%, expects 1% growth in 2027
France lowers 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%, expects 1% growth in 2027
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CNBC analysis: AI is losing its dominance in the U.S. stock market as a key tech-stock volatility metric reverses
CNBC analysis indicates that a key tech-stock volatility metric, the spread between Cboe's VIXEQ and VIX indexes, is reversing from record highs seen this summer. This suggests investors are shifting
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European natural gas reserves hit a 15-year low, enough for only a mild winter.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Europe is about to enter winter, but natural gas storage levels are at a 15-year low, only enough to cope with a mild winter. This suggests that some European gov
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Gavekal CEO Louis-Vincent Gave Discusses Global Market Investment Outlook and Strategy
Gavekal CEO Louis-Vincent Gave Discusses Global Market Investment Outlook and Strategy
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Financial Times: Global Debt Interest Payments Hit $2 Trillion, Exceeding Defense Spending in Many Countries
The Financial Times reported that global annual interest payments on debt have reached $2 trillion, with many countries, including the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, now spending more
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HSBC warns global markets' resilience to shocks may not last, citing higher corporate taxes and private debt as key risks
HSBC strategists noted in a report on Monday that while markets have shrugged off numerous shocks in recent years, this resilience could be broken by several developments. Key risks include higher cor
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Bloomberg Analysis: German Stimulus Spending Fails to Boost Investor Confidence, Sunday's State Election Results Further Fuel Concerns
Bloomberg market analysis indicates that despite significant stimulus from the German government, market performance remains subdued. Investor concerns, which have not been fully resolved, were furthe
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Former Trump administration trade advisor Navarro warned that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates now, it would hit critical sectors of the U.S. economy that most need to prosper, such as manufacturing and real estate. He expressed hope that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh would stop "those clowns'" impulse to raise rates.
Peter Navarro, former trade advisor to the Trump administration, stated in a conversation with Steve Bannon that if the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates rashly now, it would strike at the
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Wall Street Risk Complex Defies Rate Threat After Jobs Blowout, Global Bond Selloff Proves No Wrecking Ball
Wall Street Risk Complex Defies Rate Threat After Jobs Blowout, Global Bond Selloff Proves No Wrecking Ball
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Gold futures fall as U.S. payrolls rise more than expected
Gold futures fall as U.S. payrolls rise more than expected
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Bitcoin’s apparent demand turns negative as price struggles with $77K
One of Bitcoin’s onchain demand indicators turned negative again after a brief August rebound, as BTC price slipped below $77,000 amid a broader bond and equities sell-off.
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Government Bond Yields Surge Globally: Japan's 30-Year Nears All-Time High at 4.19%, UK's 30-Year Hits 1998 Peak
Government borrowing costs have been surging around the world as investors demand more compensation to entice them to hold longer-maturity debt. Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds are near al
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U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 5.286%, Highest Since August 18, Erasing Treasury Secretary Bessent's Intervention Drop
The 30-year Treasury yield surged as high as 5.286%, marking its highest level since August 18. This rise brings yields near levels seen before U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's bond-market inte
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Stanley Druckenmiller Criticizes Treasury's Bond Buybacks for Suppressing Yields, Warning It Delays Social Security Reform and 22% Benefit Cuts by 2032
Macro investor Stanley Druckenmiller stated that the U.S. Treasury's decision to double long-term debt buybacks, targeting 10- to 30-year maturities with at least $4 billion per operation from Septemb
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Japanese 30-year bond yield hits historical high, while UK 10-year gilt yield reaches highest since June 2008 and German 10-year bund yield highest since 2011, as US bonds tumble.
Japanese 30-year bond yield hits historical high, while UK 10-year gilt yield reaches highest since June 2008 and German 10-year bund yield highest since 2011, as US bonds tumble.
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With eight months to go until the 2027 French presidential election, French assets are already starting to show signs of stress.
With eight months to go until the 2027 French presidential election, French assets are already starting to show signs of stress.
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Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) shares fell 6.6% due to Grand Theft Auto VI leaks and macroeconomic concerns.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) shares fell 6.6% due to Grand Theft Auto VI leaks and macroeconomic concerns.
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Five Fundamental Factors Driving Bitcoin Market Recovery
The recent Bitcoin market has shown signs of recovery, supported by multiple fundamental factors. The halving event in April 2024 reinforced its scarcity; an improving macroeconomic environment, with the U.S. Treasury expanding bond buybacks and a low probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, created favorable conditions for risk assets. Institutional capital continues to flow in through spot ETFs, driving Bitcoin's integration into mainstream finance. Market sentiment has shifted from "fear" to "greed," but leverage in the derivatives market remains relatively moderate. At the same time, the development of blockchain technology and the gradual clarification of regulatory frameworks have further reduced the uncertainty for institutional entry, collectively laying the foundation for Bitcoin's long-term development.
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Bitcoin Breaks $80,000: Buying Emerges Amid Volatile Federal Reserve Policy Expectations, Who's Positioning?
Bitcoin's price recently surged from around $63,000 in mid-August, briefly breaking above $81,000 on August 26, setting a multi-month high. This rally comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy fluctuate; the CME tool still shows a high probability of maintaining current interest rates, but expectations for a rate hike within the year have increased. On-chain data indicates that large "whale" investors actively accumulated Bitcoin when it retested the $60,000 mark, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded strong net inflows, suggesting that institutional capital is a significant driver of this rebound.
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Can Bitcoin Replicate Gold's 1970s Performance: A Battle Between Digital Scarcity and Macro Hedging
In the 1970s, gold surged 24-fold amidst the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and high inflation. Today, Bitcoin, as "digital gold," recently broke above $80,000, driven by an influx of institutional capital and rising global government debt. This article will delve into a comparison of the similarities and differences in their driving factors, explore whether Bitcoin has the potential to replicate gold's historic gains, and analyze its unique position and challenges as a macro hedge.
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Bitcoin Price Continues to Rise: Analysis of Three Core Driving Factors
Recent Bitcoin prices have surged significantly, briefly breaking above $80,000, driven primarily by three factors. The U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond buybacks has sparked market expectations of dollar depreciation and improved liquidity, prompting investors to view Bitcoin as "digital gold." Concurrently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to attract substantial net inflows of institutional funds, indicating strong market demand. Furthermore, the rapid price increase triggered a short squeeze in the derivatives market, forcing the liquidation of billions of dollars in short positions, which further amplified the rally.
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With US PCE inflation remaining high, can Bitcoin continue to serve as an inflation hedge amid risk re-evaluation?
The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index continues to exceed the Federal Reserve's target, with a year-over-year increase of 3.8% in April 2026 and 3.7% in June. Against this backdrop, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" and an inflation hedge is being re-evaluated by the market. Since 2026, Bitcoin has exhibited characteristics of a risk asset highly correlated with tech stocks, rather than a traditional safe-haven asset, with its price falling from approximately $93,000 at the beginning of the year to about $64,900. Although some institutions still favor its long-term value, factors such as tightening liquidity, geopolitical events, and ETF redemptions are severely testing Bitcoin's inflation-hedging capabilities in the short term.
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Crypto Market Falls Across the Board, Bitcoin Hovers at $64K: Healthy Correction or Trend Reversal?
On August 14, 2026, the cryptocurrency market was broadly under pressure, with Bitcoin prices fluctuating around $64,000. Although it had fallen below $75,000 in February this year, the market is still searching for direction. The high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment, uncertainty surrounding US regulatory bills, and selling pressure from miners are the main factors contributing to the market downturn. This article will explore whether the current market is a healthy pullback to build momentum or signals a deeper trend reversal, and analyze various perspectives.
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Arthur Hayes' Bitcoin Predictions: $125,000 by End of 2026 and Long-Term Million-Dollar Target
Renowned cryptocurrency investor Arthur Hayes has made bold predictions about the future price of Bitcoin on multiple occasions. He anticipates Bitcoin reaching $125,000 by the end of 2026 and potentially surpassing $1 million around 2028. These forecasts are primarily based on his analysis of macroeconomic factors such as global liquidity expansion, the bursting of an AI-driven credit bubble, dollar devaluation, and geopolitical tensions. Hayes believes these factors will lead to massive monetary easing, thereby driving up the price of Bitcoin as a decentralized store of value.
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China's Q2 2026 Economic Growth Slows: Policy Focus Shifts to High-Quality Development, Hong Kong Stocks' Resilience Under Scrutiny
In the second quarter of 2026, China's GDP grew by 4.3% year-on-year, lower than the 5.0% in the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Under the structural contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand," the Chinese government is shifting its policy focus from simply pursuing growth speed to improving growth quality and developing "new productive forces." During the same period, Hong Kong's economy also experienced a growth回调, but its active foreign trade and valuation advantages have kept Hong Kong stocks in the spotlight for some investors amidst market fluctuations. Relevant economic data can be viewed on Svmuu.
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Bitcoin Price Retreats After PPI Soars 6% YoY: Macroeconomic Logic and Market Outlook
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 6.00% year-over-year in May 2026, coupled with persistently high inflationary pressures, sparking market concerns about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening. Affected by this, Bitcoin, after briefly returning above $80,000 in May, fell to approximately $64,000 in early August, breaching a critical psychological level. This article will delve into the impact of PPI data on the Bitcoin market, as well as the market logic and short-term outlook within the macroeconomic context.
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Bitcoin's Recent Downturn: Multiple Factors Intertwine, Market Focuses on Year-End Trends
On August 6, 2026, Bitcoin price pulled back after touching the $65,000 resistance level and is currently hovering between $63,000 and $64,000, halving from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. In the first half of this year, Bitcoin price has fallen by over 30%. This downturn is influenced by multiple factors, including continuous net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, selling plans by institutions like MicroStrategy, and weak global macroeconomic data. Additionally, a shift in preference towards AI stocks, regulatory uncertainty, and large-scale leveraged liquidations have also exacerbated market pressure. Analysts hold differing views on short-term trends, while long-term forecasts are generally cautiously optimistic, but market sentiment is complex, and investors need to closely monitor macroeconomic data and policy changes.
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A Look Back at 2021: The Five Key Factors Affecting Bitcoin Price Fluctuations
2021 was a year of extreme volatility for the Bitcoin market, with prices surging past $40,000 at the start of the year, reaching an all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November, and then experiencing a pullback toward the end of the year.During this period, widespread adoption by institutional investors and enterprises, the global macroeconomic narrative of inflation hedging, changes in regulatory policies by various governments, the statements and actions of Tesla and its founder Elon Musk, as well as market supply and demand dynamics and shifts in sentiment, collectively constituted the key drivers influencing the price fluctuations of Bitcoin.These factors intertwined to profoundly shape Bitcoin’s market performance in 2021.
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Bitcoin Back to $70,000: Amid Macroeconomic Pressures and Geopolitical Turmoil, What Is Supporting the Price?
After the price of Bitcoin once again surpassed $70,000 in March 2026, it has recently (July 2026) pulled back amid macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty, fluctuating around $64,000.Although the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted significant institutional capital following its approval in early 2024, there have also been recent outflows. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis of current external pressures—including inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical conflicts—and explore key supporting factors such as institutional investors, long-term holders, and the halving effect at Bitcoin, while examining the perspectives of both bulls and bears.
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Will the Depreciation of the U.S. Dollar Drive Up the Price of Bitcoin? An Analysis of the Complex Relationship and Recent Shifts
The relationship between the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the price of Bitcoin has historically been complex and dynamic. Traditionally, Bitcoin has often been viewed as “digital gold” and has garnered attention as a hedging tool when the dollar weakens. However, as of 2026, the market has observed that this negative correlation is weakening and has even turned positive during certain periods.JPMorgan Chase Research by and VanEck indicates that the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index has undergone a structural shift; its performance is now more influenced by short-term capital flows, market sentiment, and institutional investor behavior—such as the spot ETF effect—rather than solely by the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven attributes. Understanding this relationship requires an in-depth analysis of the specific drivers of U.S. dollar depreciation.
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Bitcoin Analysis of Correlation with U.S. Stocks: Will Markets Move in Tandem During a Market Crash?
Bitcoin The correlation with the U.S. stock market has long been a focus of attention. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a high degree of convergence with the S&P 500 Index, particularly after institutional investors entered the market.However, as of July 2026, the latest data shows that the short-term correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market has declined significantly, even turning negative, sparking debate over whether it can serve as an independent safe-haven asset. Macroeconomic factors, Federal Reserve policy, and institutional adoption continue to influence the performance of Bitcoin, causing its role to oscillate between that of “digital gold” and a high-risk asset.
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Bitcoin What is the relationship between this and stocks?
Bitcoin The relationship between Bitcoin and stocks is complex and constantly evolving. Initially viewed as an independent asset class, the correlation between and U.S. stocks—particularly tech stocks—has strengthened significantly since the 2020 pandemic and the implementation of quantitative easing policies.Macroeconomic policies, inflation, interest rates, investor sentiment, and institutional participation are the primary factors influencing the correlation between the two. Although decoupling may occur during specific periods, global liquidity and risk appetite remain the key drivers of their respective trends.
Macroeconomics
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