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Polymarket
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On Polymarket, the probability that Anthropic will reach a year-end valuation of $1.5 trillion has risen to 78%, with the price up 47% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, data from the “Anthropic’s Highest Valuation This Year” prediction event on Polymarket shows that the probability of Anthropic reaching a valuation of
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Made $400,000 in a week; used $220,000 to buy in; Morocco failed to win during regular time
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup quarterfinal prediction event for France vs. Morocco, “pingan123”—a “smart money” player who made $400,000 in 7 days—purcha
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Svmuu Evening Brief
1. Iranian media: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has launched super-heavy missiles targeting U.S. bases in Arab countries in the Persian Gulf; 2. Research firm: Global semiconductor device industry r
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A "smart money" investor bought $336,000 worth of BLG to beat HLE
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “League of Legends MSI Winners’ Bracket Final: HLE vs. BLG,” the “smart money” account Eztennis (address: 0x4be1fa92
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With profits exceeding $430,000, "smart money" bought $72,000 worth of HLE, which defeated BLG
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “League of Legends MSI Winners’ Bracket Final: HLE vs. BLG,” a “smart money” account (address: 0xef27152015c5313daf4
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Polymarket has launched its Perp trading feature, supporting select crypto and stock assets with up to 20x leverage
Svmuu News: According to the official interface, Polymarket has launched Perp trading, currently supporting 10 assets, including BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, as well as gold, silver, SP500, NAS100, WTIOIL, an
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A "smart money" investor bought approximately $370,000 worth of bets on France to defeat Morocco in the World Cup quarterfinals.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: France vs. Morocco,” a “smart money” account that generated over $870,000 in profits
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After making a profit of $1.22 million on a single bet, an address exited the market after creating a new wallet on Polymarket
Svmuu News: According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, a certain address placed just one bet on Polymarket after creating a new wallet, made a profit of $1.22 million, and then cashed out.
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Polymarket: The probability that “WTI crude oil will rise to $80 in July 2026” stands at 47%; the price has risen 28% over the past 24 hours
According to PPP prediction market tools, the probability that “WTI crude oil will rise to $80 in July 2026” on Polymarket has reached 47%, up 28% in the past 24 hours. Donald TrumpToday, it was repor
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Some idiot bet $101,000 on the World Cup quarterfinals, but France couldn't beat Morocco
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: France vs. Morocco,” a “dumb money” account that lost over $6.1 million (address: 0x224
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Svmuu Evening Brief
1. Musk: SpaceXAI will release Grok 4.5 to the public tomorrow; 2. The USD/KRW forward market saw a sell-off of the U.S. dollar related to the listing of SK Hynix ADRs; 3. Early CASHCAT buyers made a
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A "smart money" investor bet approximately $150,000 on France to defeat Morocco in the World Cup quarterfinals.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: France vs. Morocco,” a “smart money” account with a win rate exceeding 75% (Address:
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Weekly Profit of $2.4 Million; $710,000 Spent on Addresses; Egypt Fails to Win in Regular Time
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup prediction event for the Argentina vs. Egypt match, the address “swisstony”—which had earned $2.4 million over the past 7 d
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$2 million profit in one week; $1.27 million spent on bets; total goals in Argentina vs. Egypt under 2.5
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket event predicting the total goals in the Argentina vs. Egypt match, the address “Sparkling8899”—which had earned $2 million over the p
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A "smart money" investor bet $101,000 on Argentina to defeat Egypt in the World Cup Round of 16.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Argentina vs. Egypt,” a “smart money” account that has generated $271,000 in profits (a
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Polymarket traders went from a profit of $5.6 million to a loss of $103,000 in 13 days
Svmuu News: According to Onchain Lens, Polymarket trader 1two1two (0x722...59A) went from a profit of $5.6 million to a loss of $103,000 in 13 days. The account was created in June 2026, with a win ra
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With a 36% win rate, Colombia purchased $360,000 worth of tickets but was unable to defeat Switzerland
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “World Cup Round of 16: Switzerland vs. Colombia,” the address 0x9d5d726b75be95f1b32c69e0bf5b71bfa63fe218—which had
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On Polymarket, the probability that Tesla and SpaceX will announce a merger by the end of September has dropped to 10%, with the figure falling 30% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, data from the “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?” prediction event on Polymarket shows that the probability of Tesla and SpaceX officia
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Polymarket Team Members Seek Experts in Token Economy Model Design
Svmuu News: Mustafa Aljadery, a member of the Polymarket team, posted on X seeking talent for token economics model design, asking, “Who is the best in the world at building token economics models? Pl
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Polymarket traders estimate a 23% probability that the U.S. will block public access to major Chinese AI models by the end of 2026.
Svmuu News: Polymarket traders estimate a 23% probability that the U.S. government will, by December 31, 2026, block the U.S. public’s access to major Chinese AI models through legislation, executive
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Total profits exceed $1.5 million; "smart money" bets $200,000 on Spain to beat Portugal
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup Round of 16 match between Portugal and Spain, the address RJW1—which has generated total profits exceeding $1.5 million—pur
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A "smart money" investor bought $108,000 worth of bets on Portugal failing to defeat Spain in the World Cup Round of 16.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Spain vs. Portugal,” a “smart money” account with total profits nearing $455,000 (addre
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A "smart money" investor bet $170,000 on Spain to beat Portugal in the World Cup Round of 16
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Spain vs. Portugal,” account RJW1 (address: 0x85f031d069de300055900c4055c1baeb6bde3f67)
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BitMart Wallet Launches Prediction Market, Supporting Real-Time Trading During the World Cup
Svmuu News: According to official reports, BitMart Wallet’s brand-new prediction market is now live, covering a wide range of topics including the World Cup, sporting events, crypto market trends, and
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Binance and Polymarket suspend trading following hacks; Trump administration promised tariff relief for Audi factory
Binance and Polymarket have suspended trading after hacks. Separately, the Trump administration promised tariff relief in talks to secure a U.S. Audi factory, and Cleveland-Cliffs will retain Stelco a
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Polymarket suffers second multimillion-dollar security breach in four months, with approximately $3.46 million in assets compromised
Polymarket suffers second multimillion-dollar security breach in four months, with approximately $3.46 million in assets compromised
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Kalshi and Polymarket Secure Media Deals Ahead of Midterm Elections
Prediction market operators Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket have struck business partnerships with several media companies, including CNN, CBS News, Dow Jones, and CNBC, ahead of the midterm elections. The
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Polymarket Resumes Trading and Announces Payout Plan: Users with Losses Under $10,000 Will Be Automatically Refunded by October 30
Polymarket announced it has fully restored trading and removed the compromised third-party vendor. Affected wallets have been identified on-chain, and users with losses under $10,000 will automaticall
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Polymarket launches 15-minute gold and silver betting in partnership with Chainlink
Polymarket has launched 15-minute gold and silver betting in partnership with Chainlink. These contracts use opening and closing spot prices, with U.S. participants paying approximately $1.74 per 100
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Senators Warren and Curtis Press Kalshi and Polymarket on Election Trading Safeguards
Senators Elizabeth Warren and Katie Britt have pressed prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket for information on their election trading safeguards. The senators have set a November 3 deadli
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Bubblemaps tracked a Polymarket exploit that led to $2.7 million in outflows. The platform's trading has resumed, and it has pledged full compensation.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has tracked $2.7 million in outflows from prediction market Polymarket following a previous security vulnerability incident. Polymarket's platform trading has now
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Prediction market Polymarket suffered a large-scale hack, with nearly 1,000 accounts compromised and over $2.6 million stolen.
Prediction market Polymarket has suffered a major security breach, with nearly 1,000 accounts compromised and over $2.6 million lost. Blockchain analyst Conor Grogan disclosed that a total of 995 acco
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Polymarket International Platform Suspends Trading Due to Third-Party Provider Hack
Prediction market platform Polymarket stated that its international platform is currently experiencing an outage due to a hack at an unnamed third-party provider. Traders first reported unauthorized w
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Binance founder CZ comments on Polymarket attack, stating it appears to be a front-end injection attack
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) commented on the Polymarket security incident, stating that it appears to be a front-end injection attack that injects incorrect transactions but shows a valid tran
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Polymarket confirmed that a third-party provider was compromised, has suspended trading, and pledged full refunds. The alleged attacker's wallet holds approximately $2.65 million in POL.
Polymarket confirmed that a third-party provider was compromised, has suspended trading, and pledged full refunds. The alleged attacker's wallet holds approximately $2.65 million in POL.
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Polymarket has suspended trading and interrupted its relay service after a trader reported an $800,000 account theft.
Polymarket has suspended trading and interrupted its relay service after a trader reported an $800,000 account theft.
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Polymarket confirmed that user funds were stolen due to a compromise of a third-party service provider, and has suspended trading and referred the matter to law enforcement, pledging full compensation.
Wu Blockchain reports that multiple Polymarket users have reported unauthorized fund transfers, with losses totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars. Polymarket stated it has identified and fixed the
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Polymarket Launches Ultra-Short-Term Crypto Prediction Markets on US Platform Amid CFTC Compliance Review
Polymarket has launched new Up/Down ultra-short-term crypto contracts on its U.S. platform. This move comes as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reviews Polymarket's compliance with
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Polymarket is investigating suspicious trades in the Israeli elections, raising concerns about potential insider trading in prediction markets.
Polymarket is investigating suspicious trades in the Israeli elections, raising concerns about potential insider trading in prediction markets.
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Polymarket generated $14 billion in trading volume from sports betting in the US within 30 days, while facing CFTC scrutiny.
According to DeFi Rate data, prediction market Polymarket's US platform recorded approximately $13.7 billion in notional trading volume in the 30 days ending October 26, with sports betting accounting
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Polymarket has added five-minute crypto contracts to its U.S. application, covering BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. These contracts are settled using CF Benchmarks prices and incur separate taker fees.
Polymarket has added five-minute crypto contracts to its U.S. application, covering BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. These contracts are settled using CF Benchmarks prices and incur separate taker fees.
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CFTC Investigates Polymarket for Alleged Violation of Settlement Agreement
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating whether Polymarket violated its 2022 settlement agreement by failing to adequately block U.S. users from accessing its offshore pl
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NEXTPredict conference discusses prediction market expansion and applications
The NEXTPredict conference, held in New York from October 22nd to 23rd, brought together major prediction market exchanges, trading firms, and policymakers. JB Mackenzie, Vice President at Robinhood,
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Polymarket investigated dozens of midterm-election bets for possible insider trading and manipulation
Shana Bautista, Head of Global Intelligence and Investigations at prediction market platform Polymarket, told NPR that the company has investigated dozens of midterm election market bets involving pot
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Decrypt reported that experts pointed out that prediction markets severely misjudged the outcome of the Brazilian presidential election
Decrypt reported that experts pointed out that prediction markets severely misjudged the outcome of the Brazilian presidential election. Polymarket predicted Lula's chances of winning were only 20% be
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The National Basketball Association (NBA) has secured a prediction markets agreement with the U.S. derivatives regulator
The National Basketball Association (NBA) has secured a prediction markets agreement with the U.S. derivatives regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and partnered with leading fi
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The NBA has designated Kalshi and Polymarket as preferred prediction market exchanges. This agreement will provide Kalshi with official league data and NBA branding, while Polymarket has also received the same preferred designation.
The NBA has designated Kalshi and Polymarket as preferred prediction market exchanges. This agreement will provide Kalshi with official league data and NBA branding, while Polymarket has also received
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CFTC Accuses Polymarket of Insider Trading: $1.2 Million in Illegal Gains Reveals Regulatory Storm in Prediction Markets
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recently taken multiple enforcement actions against the prediction market platform Polymarket and its users. Following a fine imposed on Polymarket in 2022, the CFTC and the U.S. Department of Justice filed lawsuits against two individuals in 2026, accusing them of illegally profiting approximately $1.2 million and over $400,000, respectively, by trading event contracts on Polymarket using insider information. These cases, coupled with the CFTC's re-examination of Polymarket's compliance this month, highlight regulators' growing concern over insider trading and platform compliance in prediction markets, signaling stricter legal scrutiny for the sector.
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2026 World Cup Review: How Polymarket Prediction Data Reflected Market Expectations and Outcomes
The 2026 FIFA World Cup concluded on July 19, with Spain ultimately claiming the championship. On Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, the "World Cup Winner" event saw trading volume exceed $4.3 billion, making it the largest single sports event. Before the tournament, France and Spain were favorites, but on the eve of the final, Polymarket data showed Spain's probability of winning surged to 58%, which ultimately aligned with the outcome. This article will review how Polymarket data revealed the market's collective expectations for the event.
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Prediction Market Trading Platforms: An Overview of Four Core Platforms
Prediction market platforms allow users to bet on or trade the outcomes of future events, aggregating collective intelligence to forecast trends. This article will delve into four core platforms: Kalshi, regulated by the U.S. CFTC; Polymarket, a crypto-native platform based on Polygon; Augur, a decentralized pioneer on Ethereum; and Zeitgeist, which employs a Futarchy governance model within the Kusama ecosystem. We will analyze their operational models, regulatory compliance, technical characteristics, and current development status to help readers understand the diverse landscape of this emerging field.
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Polymarket Prediction Market Plagued by Insider Trading: Regulatory Challenges Highlighted by Maduro Ousting Bets
Crypto prediction market Polymarket has recently drawn significant attention due to multiple insider trading allegations. In one instance, a U.S. Army sergeant allegedly used classified military operation information to accurately bet on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, profiting over $400,000. This has led to criminal and civil lawsuits from the U.S. Department of Justice and the CFTC. Additionally, the platform has been involved in several other cases of trading based on internal information, highlighting the regulatory gaps and integrity challenges faced by prediction markets in their rapid development.
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Polymarket vs. Kalshi Valuation Showdown: An In-depth Analysis of Prediction Market Platform Investment Value
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi are competing in the rapidly evolving event contracts sector. Polymarket is seeking a $21 billion valuation, while Kalshi is targeting $40 billion. This article will provide a comprehensive comparison of their valuations, regulatory compliance, market share, trading volume, revenue models, and potential risks, offering readers a complete perspective to explore which holds greater investment potential in the current market environment.
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Polymarket Once Reached a Weekly Trading Volume Milestone of $2.1 Billion: Exploring Its Rise as the World's Largest Blockchain Prediction Market
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket set a new record in March 2026 with over $2.1 billion in weekly trading volume, solidifying its position as the world's largest blockchain prediction market. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, the platform operates on the Polygon network and uses USDC for transactions. Polymarket successfully operates compliantly in the United States by acquiring a CFTC-licensed entity and obtaining a "no-action" letter. Despite facing regulatory scrutiny and insider trading concerns, Polymarket has attracted prominent investors such as Intercontinental Exchange and established partnerships with X (Twitter) and Blockchain.com, continuously expanding its market influence.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Polymarket
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