24/7 News

The Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department has started quarterly publication of labor market indicators. These indicators are considered suitable for complementary monitoring of the output gap, given their relevance to forecasting wages and prices amid intensifying labor supply constraints. The data, which also include updates on the output gap and potential growth rate, are released on a quarterly basis, typically on the third business day of January, April, July, and October.

According to Wu Blockchain, Payward, the parent company of Kraken, and Singapore Gulf Bank (SGB), a digital bank regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain, have announced a strategic partnership. Payward has integrated SGB's real-time multi-currency clearing network, SGB Net, to provide 24/7 instant settlement services for institutional clients in specific jurisdictions across Asia and the Gulf region. Initially, this service will support USD transactions for a select group of clients, with plans to expand to more clients and additional currencies. SGB will also connect to Payward's Kraken Prime to access digital asset liquidity and price trades for its clients.

Morgan Stanley's Chief Equity Strategist, Mike Wilson, noted in his latest report that the US equity market has quietly fractured, with 51% of Russell 3000 components having fallen more than 20% from their June highs, officially entering bear market territory. He believes there is currently a divergence gap of approximately 12% between market breadth and index prices, and this divergence must be reconciled. Wilson emphasized that US Treasury volatility is a critical variable determining market direction: if bond volatility cannot subside, the S&P 500 index could drop to the 6800 to 7300 point range in the next month; if bond volatility cools down, individual stock gains will push the index higher. Currently, the 10-year US Treasury yield has returned to 5.25%, the MOVE index, which measures US Treasury volatility, has broken above 100, while the VIX equity volatility index remains below 15, indicating a rare divergence between equity and bond volatility.

Lookonchain monitoring shows that crypto trader Machi (@machibigbrother) has achieved two more wins in PUMP token trading, bringing his total to 12 consecutive wins in the past week, with a total profit of $2.14 million. Currently, Machi holds long positions of 34,100 ETH (valued at $92.98 million), 456 BTC (valued at $39.41 million), 174,500 HYPE (valued at $15.84 million), and 425 million PUMP (valued at $2.72 million).

On Monday, the dollar fell and bond markets stabilized as investors pared bets on an aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Trading was light in Asia due to holidays in China and South Korea, with markets largely influenced by Wall Street's performance last Friday.

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened down 8 points, or 0.04%, at 23,963 points; the Tech Index fell 19 points, or 0.47%, to 4,138 points; and the China Enterprises Index dropped 9 points, or 0.12%, to 8,021 points.

Last week's data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in September, with non-farm payrolls for the prior two months also significantly revised down, virtually ruling out another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors now assign only a 22% probability to a Fed hike this month, down from 64% a week ago.

The increased likelihood of a Fed pause this month pushed the Tokyo Nikkei Index to open up 804 points, or 1.18%, at 69,113 points, having risen by as much as 1,656 points during the session.

The recent global bond sell-off paused on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly retreating to 5.2643% and the 2-year yield at 4.8143%. The dollar weakened on reduced rate hike expectations, with the euro rebounding from a 17-month low to $1.1243 against the dollar, the pound slightly rising to $1.3241 against the dollar, and the dollar marginally falling to 157.81 against the yen.

Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers, stated that while the labor market is generally stable, last Friday's revisions indicate that the U.S. economy experienced job losses in two of the first nine months of this year, and the risk of further job losses means the Fed cannot hike rates by another 100 basis points.

Cedric Lam, Senior Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank, noted that although recent U.S. data has started to show inflation below expectations, market technicals, driven by forced selling from hedge funds and real estate investment trusts, might temporarily delay the downward trend in bond yields. He added that he does not expect this to be a prolonged sell-off and has taken an opportunistic bullish stance on 10-year U.S. Treasuries.

Elias Haddad, Head of Global Markets Strategy at BBH, believes that policy tightening in other regions and the increased likelihood of a Fed pause in October are negative for the dollar, but the outperformance of the U.S. economy and strong foreign demand for U.S. securities still present upside risks for the dollar.

In commodities, oil prices remained elevated after Yemen's Houthi group claimed to have launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais.

UK fund house Schroders will increase investment and headcount in Hong Kong after being acquired by US asset manager Nuveen. Schroders’ global CEO Richard Oldfield said on Friday that Hong Kong is a critical interface for mainland China through schemes like Wealth Management Connect, which allows investors in the Greater Bay Area to buy wealth-management products across borders.

According to Bloomberg, OKX, through its joint venture OKXICE LLC with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a tokenized U.S. stock trading platform. The platform plans to initially offer tokenized shares of 63 NYSE-listed companies, with issuers given 30 days before trading begins to opt out. Last month, the SEC cleared the way for blockchain-based securities to trade in the U.S. under a temporary exemption framework, requiring digital assets to include full shareholder benefits like dividends and voting rights. The OKXICE platform's launch depends on the completion of the 30-day opt-out period and other requirements.

MBK Partners Chairman Michael ByungJu Kim has been summoned to a parliamentary audit for the second consecutive year, where lawmakers will scrutinize the private equity firm's handling of Homeplus, according to The Korea Herald. The National Assembly's Trade, Industry, Energy, SMEs and Startups Committee has summoned Kim to attend Wednesday's audit of the Ministry of SMEs and Startups. The questioning is expected to focus on the emergency business stabilization funds provided to Homeplus after it entered court-led restructuring and incurred losses.

Firmus Grid Ltd. plans to allocate about half the shares in its initial public offering (IPO) to existing shareholders, a move that would give current investors such as Nvidia Corp and Blackstone Group an opportunity to boost their holdings, Bloomberg Markets reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Woori Bank announced on Monday that it has completed its first corporate derivatives transaction, arranging a £70 million (approximately $93 million) loan and corresponding interest rate swap for a London-based company through its London trading hub. The transaction, signed on September 29 in collaboration with Woori Bank's London branch, aims to reduce the borrower's uncertainty regarding borrowing costs by converting floating-rate payments to fixed-rate payments. Woori Bank has directly hedged the swap in the London market.

Despite the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5%, sparking concerns that rising borrowing costs could lead to a debt spiral, some bond market experts believe the U.S. is still far from a fiscal crisis, CNBC reported. Analysts at TD Securities and L&G Asset Management point to the long weighted-average maturity of U.S. debt, an average interest rate below nominal economic growth, and the "exorbitant privilege" of the U.S. dollar as buffering factors. They argue that the surge in yields is also linked to economic resilience and expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, rather than solely fiscal concerns.

Illinois officials have joined crypto industry groups in seeking a six-month delay to the state’s controversial digital-asset tax. An agreed motion, filed on October 1, asks a judge to postpone the levy’s January 1 start until July 1, 2027, while a constitutional challenge brought by The Digital Chamber and the Illinois Blockchain Association proceeds. The state's Revenue Director and Attorney General joined the request, even as the state continues to dispute the industry groups’ claims against the law. The court had not been confirmed to have entered the order as of October 4. The Digital Asset Tax, enacted in June, imposes a 0.2% levy on the value of digital assets involved in certain covered transactions, rather than on investors’ trading profits.

Japanese companies are retreating from China at a record pace, with the number of firms falling to a historic low of 10,118 as of June, down 22% from June 2024. This marks the lowest level since Teikoku Databank began tracking the data in 2010, driven by a slowing Chinese economy and a diplomatic freeze between the two nations. In the past two years, 4,137 Japanese companies fully withdrew from China, while only 1,221 entered, the fewest on record outside the Covid-19 pandemic. Factors such as U.S. tariffs, growing labor costs, local competition, and concerns over personnel safety have also contributed to the exodus. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng stated on Tuesday that China "always welcomes" Japanese enterprises.

Japanese stocks jumped on Monday morning, with the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average crossing the 70,000 threshold during intraday trading for the first time in three months. The rally was driven by a tech sector surge and investors paring back bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, following a slower-than-expected September U.S. jobs report.