Morgan Stanley's Chief Equity Strategist, Mike Wilson, noted in his latest report that the US equity market has quietly fractured, with 51% of Russell 3000 components having fallen more than 20% from their June highs, officially entering bear market territory. He believes there is currently a divergence gap of approximately 12% between market breadth and index prices, and this divergence must be reconciled. Wilson emphasized that US Treasury volatility is a critical variable determining market direction: if bond volatility cannot subside, the S&P 500 index could drop to the 6800 to 7300 point range in the next month; if bond volatility cools down, individual stock gains will push the index higher. Currently, the 10-year US Treasury yield has returned to 5.25%, the MOVE index, which measures US Treasury volatility, has broken above 100, while the VIX equity volatility index remains below 15, indicating a rare divergence between equity and bond volatility.