Svmuu News: According to a research report by Huatai Securities, the U.S. added 50,000 nonfarm jobs in December, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 70,000, while the cumulative figure for October and November was revised downward by 76,000. Although the unemployment rate edged down, the significant downward revisions for the previous two months caused the three-month average of private-sector nonfarm payrolls to drop to a low of 29,000, with structural imbalances further widening. Looking ahead, we maintain our view that the labor market will gradually improve, while monitoring the “discrepancy” between economic growth and employment. We expect the Fed to pause rate cuts from January to May and then cut rates once or twice after the new Fed chair takes office. December’s nonfarm payrolls fell short of expectations and were concentrated in a few sectors: the employment diffusion index showed a decline in December compared to November. Given that recent initial jobless claims have mostly outperformed expectations, layoff numbers have declined, and the NFIB business hiring sentiment—a leading indicator—continues to improve, we still expect U.S. nonfarm payrolls to rebound in the coming months. We are monitoring the “discrepancy” between U.S. economic growth and the labor market. From the Fed’s perspective, while the employment data is somewhat weak, it has not continued to deteriorate. We expect the Fed to pause rate cuts at its January meeting and emphasize that it will monitor subsequent data before making further decisions. Consequently, we expect the Fed to pause rate cuts from January through May, with one or two additional rate cuts anticipated after the new Fed chair takes office. (Jin Shi)