Svmuu News Bitcoin's current price is gradually approaching the historical "buy zone," but on-chain data indicates that typical bottom signals have not yet appeared in the market. Data shows that Bitcoin's spot price is around $68,000, while the network-wide average cost basis is approximately $54,000, leaving a premium of about 21%. This means the majority of holders are still in profit.
Historically, whether during the pandemic crash of 2020 or the bear market bottom in 2022, Bitcoin's price fell below its realized price, resulting in network-wide unrealized losses, which formed a strong buy zone. However, the current market has not yet entered this "comprehensive loss" phase. For the price to fall back to the realized price, Bitcoin would need to decline further to around $54,000, implying a potential downside of about 20%. It is worth noting, however, that this premium has narrowed rapidly. At the end of 2024, when Bitcoin's price was above $119,000, its premium relative to the realized price was as high as about 120%. This has now compressed to 21%, representing one of the faster convergence rates in recent years.
Furthermore, on-chain indicators also show that the market has not yet undergone sufficient adjustment. For example, the Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative, reflecting weakened demand from U.S. institutions. Despite this, the current range of $65,000 to $70,000 has remained stable amidst multiple macro shocks. Additionally, ETF inflows exceeded $1 billion in March, indicating continued buying support. Overall, Bitcoin is gradually approaching a potential bottom zone, but it has not yet experienced the historically typical "market clearing" process, leaving short-term uncertainty. (CoinDesk)