Zhongtai Securities Research Report: The explosion of AI inference demand accelerates the evolution of hashrate interconnection, reallocating industry chain value towards NPO and CPO and other segments.
Wang Fang and Sun Yuewen, analysts at Zhongtai Securities, released a research report on August 29, stating that the demand for AI inference tokens is expected to grow by over 300 times within two years, forcing data center interconnects to accelerate their evolution from copper cables to Near Package Optics (NPO) and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO). The main technical trend is to move the optoelectronic conversion position from the front panel to near the ASIC to reduce high-speed electrical signal transmission loss. The report cited Google data, which estimates its monthly processing volume to increase from 9.7 trillion in May 2024 to over 3,200 trillion in May 2026. Major tech companies are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with Google, Amazon, and Meta projected to have full-year capital expenditures of $195-205 billion, $220 billion, and $130 billion, respectively, in 2026. As technology iterates, the industry chain value will be reallocated from traditional pluggable optical modules to high-power CW lasers, FAU, high-density connectivity, and advanced packaging. However, actual performance realization still depends on customer design wins and mass delivery.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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