Analysts believe this round of JPY appreciation is driven by capital repatriation, and the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund may shift its allocation from US Treasuries to JGBs.
Anatole Kaletsky, an analyst at investment research firm Gavekal, noted that the current appreciation of the Japanese Yen, unlike previous central bank interventions, is primarily driven by genuine capital repatriation. Reports indicate that Norway's sovereign wealth fund, Norges Fund, is adjusting its fixed-income allocation, potentially shifting from U.S. Treasuries to Japanese bonds, sparking speculation of further international capital returning to Japan. Additionally, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has explicitly expressed support for domestic savings repatriation, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates next week, with market expectations for the overnight rate to increase by one percentage point to 1.9% within the next 12 months. Analysts believe these factors could collectively drive a sustained appreciation of the Yen and signal the end of the carry trade era.
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Source:华尔街见闻 · Source Link
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