Wallstreetcn analysis indicates that following the "August 28 New Policy on Existing Home Sales," the policy transmission mechanism in China's real estate market has shifted from primarily impacting investment volume to influencing risk appetite. This change suggests that the housing market recovery will precede consumer recovery.

The analysis posits that the new policy has severed the transmission loop of "real estate policy → real estate investment → consumer stocks," meaning that a rebound in consumption will depend more on stable retail sales growth or accelerated infrastructure investment. Concurrently, in response to external shocks (such as the two-year US Treasury yield hitting a new high of 4.78%), China has adopted a structural domestic demand policy of "stabilizing the housing market first, then stabilizing consumption." This approach supports the housing market (Shanghai's existing home price index has risen for seven consecutive months month-over-month) by guiding the appreciation of the RMB (CNH has appreciated nearly 4% this year) and maintaining low policy interest rates (one-year NCD rates remain low). However, this has also led to a rise in RMB swap points (from 1.61% at the beginning of the year to 3.14%), which has suppressed domestic consumption.