Morgan Stanley Warns: Storage Stocks Appear Cheap But Are Dangerous at the Peak of the AI Supercycle
Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that while the AI-driven memory chip super cycle continues, the investment logic for memory stocks has shifted. The market's optimistic expectations for memory stocks are already fully priced in, and further upside is being tested. The report emphasizes that the stronger the memory industry's fundamentals, the easier it is for the risk of a cycle peak to be underestimated; historically, memory stocks often peak before their earnings reach their highest point. The total market capitalization of Asian memory stocks has now entered the trillion-dollar range, with average EPS expectations raised by 432%, yet Samsung and SK Hynix's forward P/E ratios are only 3-4x. This seemingly cheap valuation may hide a trap. Morgan Stanley expects HBM prices to rise until 2027, and DRAM and NAND contract prices are likely to increase in Q4 2026. However, it warns of potential supply-demand changes from new capacity coming online in H2 2027, and that as AI clusters expand, the increasing weight of network hardware in system value could lead to a decreased share of revenue for memory manufacturers.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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