Morgan Stanley Strategists Warn: US Stocks Experiencing Worst Divergence Since Dot-Com Bubble, Ordinary Stocks "Crushed," AI Giants May Struggle to Carry the Load Alone
Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Mike Wilson noted in his latest report that the US stock market is experiencing a rare internal divergence, with indices appearing calm while ordinary stocks are in disarray. He warned that tightening financial conditions are primarily impacting ordinary stocks, rather than the few AI-centric giants. Morgan Stanley's Composite Financial Conditions Index has jumped to approximately 1.4 standard deviations, a level only breached a few times in the past 35 years. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has lagged the market-cap-weighted index by 6% over the past six months. In September, when the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassed 5%, the equal-weight index fell by 5% in a single month, while the market-cap-weighted index remained almost flat. Goldman Sachs' Tony Pasquariello added that the median S&P 500 component stock has fallen 15% from its 52-week high, the worst reading since the dot-com bubble burst. Furthermore, the S&P 500 equity risk premium has fallen below zero, and financial stocks have dropped 7.7% in 30 days, with their performance relative to the S&P 500 falling to its lowest level since 2019.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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