Bank of America Securities strategist Michael Hartnett noted in his latest report that the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator dropped from 8.1 to 7.4, falling below the 8.0 threshold, officially ending the "sell signal" triggered on May 26. He believes that the termination of the signal does not equate to a buy signal, and whether investors can return to tech stocks in mid-November will depend on the trend of semiconductor prices, a key variable.
Hartnett maintains a "defensive bias" and listed two prerequisites for returning to risk assets: the Federal Reserve raising interest rates on October 28 to restore credibility, and an easing of AI financing concerns. Neither of these has materialized yet. He warned that if semiconductor prices fall, it would signal further tightening of AI credit and a peak in capital expenditure growth, at which point market returns in 2027 would shift from capital appreciation to earnings-driven.
BofA's Hartnett: His "sell signal" has ended, investors may return to tech stocks by mid-November, but the key depends on semiconductor price trends.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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