CITIC Securities, in its latest report on October 19, stated that market concerns about the debt sustainability of new cloud vendors like Coreweave are overblown, believing that short-term financing gaps can still be absorbed by existing channels. The report predicts that the real stress test will not arrive until 2028, when the ability of AI demand to continuously translate into rental payments will determine the quality of this round of high-leverage computing power expansion.

The report estimates that new cloud-related capital expenditures will approach $500 billion in 2027, corresponding to an annual new financing demand of approximately $310 billion. CITIC Securities believes that public market financing, GPU-backed financing supported by customer contracts, and customer prepayments are sufficient to cover this gap in the short term. For example, CoreWeave's latest loan, collateralized by investment-grade customer contracts, has seen its spread decrease to SOFR+2.25%. As of the end of Q2 2026, the four major CSPs (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) had uncommenced lease commitments totaling $830.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 249%.

CITIC Securities emphasized that the core variable for new cloud repayment capability is not interest rates, but computing power rental prices.