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Federal Reserve
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Macquarie: Expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the first half of 2027
Svmuu News Macquarie expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the first half of 2027, whereas the previous forecast was for a rate hike in the fourth quarter of 2026. (Jin10)
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An address spent $6.07 million betting that the Fed will not cut rates in March
Monitoring by Seer Channel shows that a newly created 5-day-old address spent $6.07 million betting that the Fed will not cut interest rates in March, with an average price of 99.5¢ and a maximum pote
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"Fed Whisperer": Fed Leans Toward Silence This Week, Recent Shocks Become Two-Way Factor
Svmuu News "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos: The Federal Reserve may be more inclined to remain silent this week. But forecasts force them to outline a path. Two former Fed chairs told me they hope to av
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Trump: The Fed Should Immediately Convene a Special Meeting to Cut Rates
Svmuu News Trump said the Federal Reserve should immediately convene a special meeting to cut interest rates. (Jin10)
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Analysis: Institutional Funds Drive Bitcoin's Strength, but Breaking Through the $75,000 Resistance Level Still Faces Pressure
Svmuu News Bitcoin briefly broke above $74,000 on Monday, continuing its upward trend. Analysis suggests strong institutional demand is driving prices. Additionally, global crypto ETF products saw net
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Rising oil prices shift expectations for interest rate cuts; an options bet at Federal Reserve yields $10 million in profits
Svmuu News: This month’s sharp rise in oil prices and the market’s downward revision of expectations for Federal Reserve’s monetary easing have resulted in a $10 million profit from an options trade o
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Iran War Clouds Outlook; Federal Reserves Face Pressure on Both Fronts; Hawk-Dove Showdown Looms
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Officials are set to meet this week, with their policy outlook already disrupted by the war in Iran, which has brought one-fifth of global oil supplies to a standstill. Offi
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Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Stabilizes Above $70,000, Institutional Accumulation Within Range May Brew Breakout
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, Bitcoin has regained its footing above the $70,000 mark ahead of this week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 18th, with market momentum showing a c
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Wall Street's Big Three Still Bullish on U.S. Stocks: Geopolitical Shocks Won't Alter Bull Market
Svmuu According to strategists from major Wall Street banks, their bullish case for U.S. equities remains intact despite risks stemming from the war in Iran. Rising oil prices, cost-of-living concerns
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Jerome Powell: Even if investigated, he will not step down after his term as chairman ends
Svmuu News: Documents declassified last Friday reveal that, during a meeting with the Department of Justice in January, attorneys for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Jerome Powell raised the possibili
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U.S. Court Upholds Fed Ruling, Denies Custodia's Request for Rehearing on Master Account
Svmuu News The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, in a 7-3 vote, has denied crypto bank Custodia's request for an en banc rehearing. This decision upholds the October 2025 panel ruling, affi
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Federal Court Halts DOJ Subpoena Investigation into Current Fed Chair, Elizabeth Warren's Support for Warsh as Fed Chair Probability Surges Significantly
Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability for "Will Elizabeth Warren vote to support Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?" has risen from 1.9% to 28.0%. A recent ruling by a U.S. federal d
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Polymarket's "Fed rate cut before June FOMC meeting concludes" probability drops 11% in 24 hours, currently reported at 28%
According to monitoring by Svmuu Seer's Prophet Channel, the probability of the Polymarket event "Fed rate cut before the June FOMC meeting concludes" has dropped 11% in 24 hours and is currently repo
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Bank of America Analyst: Further Decline in S&P 500 Index Could Trigger Policy Response from White House or Fed
Svmuu According to Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett, a further decline in the S&P 500 Index—down to around 6600 points, just 1% below recent levels—could trigger a policy response from the Whi
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Barclays: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points each in September 2026 and March 2027
Svmuu News Barclays: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points each in September 2026 and March 2027, compared to previous forecasts for rate cuts in June and September of this year. (Jin10)
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Rabinettenbank: Middle East Conflict May Continue to Support the Dollar
Svmuu According to Jane Foley of Rabobank in a report, as there are no signs of easing in the Middle East conflict, the US dollar may still have room for further strengthening. The rise of the dollar
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Bank of America: Oil Price Shock May Push Up Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts; Jerome Powells Will Adopt a Wait-and-See Approach
Svmuu News: Bank of America stated that the Federal Reserve will have to contend with another round of supply shocks—soaring oil prices. In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released ahead of
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Market Analysis: Rising Core PCE Poses Challenges for Fed Doves
Svmuu News According to the US financial website investinglive: This report poses a problem for the doves within the Federal Reserve. The overall data largely met expectations, but upon closer inspect
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Market News: Traders Bet on Fed Rate Cut Before September
Svmuu News: Market news indicates that traders are betting on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before September. (Jin10)
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A survey shows that economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year
Svmuu News: According to a Bloomberg survey, economists have pushed back their expectations for the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve from March to June, but still anticipate two 25-basis-
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Analysis: Bitcoin forms a chip accumulation zone between $62,000 and $72,000, poised for new breakout momentum
Svmuu According to Cointelegraph, amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the price of Bitcoin has broken through $72,000, reaching a new high since March 5th, demonstrating strong ma
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Analysis: Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Expectations, Market Fears Fed May Struggle to Cut Rates
Svmuu According to data, the one-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 4.62%, the highest level since June 2022; the two-year breakeven inflation rate has also climbed to 3.18%, reaching a near o
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Analysts: Market Concerns Over Fed Rate Cut Path Intensify, Gold Prices Set for Weekly Decline
Svmuu News On Friday, New York gold futures fell below $5,100 per ounce, poised for a weekly decline. A stronger U.S. dollar, rising oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy are
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Analysis: Tonight's PCE May Show Unprecedented Anomalies in Decades, Another Hurdle for Fed's Rate Cut Path
Svmuu News At 8:30 PM Beijing time on Friday, the United States will release the January PCE Price Index. The market expects the PCE data to rise 2.9% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value,
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Arthur Hayes: AI Giant Equity Dilution May Weigh on Stock Prices, Short-Term Bearish for Bitcoin, While Central Bank Bailouts Hold Long-Term Promise
Arthur Hayes: AI Giant Equity Dilution May Weigh on Stock Prices, Short-Term Bearish for Bitcoin, While Central Bank Bailouts Hold Long-Term Promise
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Donald Trump's special committee hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has been postponed to December 14.
The special committee hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, initiated by Donald Trump, has been postponed to December 14, White House officials revealed on Wednesday. Donald Trump esta
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Nick Timiraos: A Democratic Senate would pose the strongest check on Donald Trump's reshaping of the Federal Reserve
Nick Timiraos: A Democratic Senate victory would serve as the most powerful check on Donald Trump's reshaping of the Federal Reserve. If any Federal Reserve Board of Governors vacancies arise in the f
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Lombard Odier Economists: A Democratic Senate Win Helps Reduce Uncertainty Around Fed Independence
According to Dow Jones Market Talk, Samy Chaar, Chief Economist at Lombard Odier, believes that a Democratic victory in the Senate would provide a check on Donald Trump's key institutional personnel n
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According to a Federal Reserve survey on November 2, banks tightened their lending standards for non-bank financial institutions, which could restrict financing for Bitcoin investors.
According to a lending survey released by the Federal Reserve on November 2, banks tightened their lending standards for non-bank financial institutions, while demand from commercial lenders and priva
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U.S. Treasuries fell due to strong U.S. job openings data and oil price volatility.
US job openings data exceeded economists' expectations, indicating a still robust labor market, which could give the Federal Reserve room to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Meanwhile, oil pric
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U.S. factory activity strengthened in October, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 59.0, which could complicate Bitcoin's hopes for interest rate cuts.
U.S. factory activity strengthened in October, with the ISM Production Index rising to 59.0, potentially complicating Bitcoin's hopes for rate cuts. A report released by the Institute for Supply Manag
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Bitcoin Trades Near $77,500 as US Midterm Voting Begins, Influenced by Binance Hack and Macro Factors
Bitcoin traded near $77,500 on Tuesday morning as polls opened for the U.S. midterm elections, down about 0.6% on the day. The price action is pressured by factors including a record $6.3 billion Bina
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Nick Timiraos reposts a 2000 news article: Tech bubble executives ignored rate hike risks, companies went bankrupt nine months later.
Nick Timiraos reposted an old news story from 2000, recalling the tale of Sy Picon during the dot-com bubble. In January 2000, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sy Picon, founder of Sy Picon, a di
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US Treasuries Rise, Yields Extend Slide as Oil Prices Tumble
US Treasuries rose, extending their biggest monthly advance in over two years, as tumbling oil prices eased concerns about inflation pressure potentially leading to additional Federal Reserve interest
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Citi FX traders see continued carry trade opportunities
Citigroup Inc.'s US currency desk expects the carry trade to keep offering opportunities for investors, even though the strategy may struggle to replicate a period of standout returns. Fuad Muvdi, hea
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh plans to reduce the number of interest rate votes to just six times per year starting in 2028, which economists say could delay relief for borrowers.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh announced plans to reduce the number of interest rate setting votes over the next two years. Specifically, in 2027, one of the Federal Reserve's eight meetings will not
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S&P 500 historically sees strong gains after midterm elections, averaging 13.7% one year later
A CNBC analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1980 through 2024 shows the index rose an average of 13.7% one year after midterm elections, with positive returns in 91% of cases. The S&P 500 was up after all
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OPEC+ maintained its oil production targets, which could exacerbate inflation concerns and limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing, posing a new macro test for Bitcoin.
OPEC+ decided on November 1 to maintain its oil production targets for December, despite ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East, a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and strength
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Fed study finds Treasury dealers' financing burden can outlast their bond holdings, potentially impacting crypto credit markets
A Federal Reserve staff research, published on October 30, indicates that Treasury dealers may continue to finance customer bonds even after their own auction inventory has largely cleared. This linge
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Industry Insiders: Hong Kong Family Offices Still Interested in Overseas Real Estate Investment
According to the South China Morning Post, industry professionals interviewed believe that Hong Kong family offices' interest in real estate investments in Europe, the US, and Japan may not wane even
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US banks are owed $349B by private credit funds, as PIK interest payments rise to 10% of loans
US-domiciled private credit vehicles owed banks $349 billion at the end of 2025, according to a Federal Reserve report published on October 16, 2026. The report highlights that private credit funds ca
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U.S. stocks fell, Intel's share price plummeted, and Federal Reserve officials hinted at supporting interest rate hikes.
U.S. stocks fell, with Intel's share price dropping sharply, as Federal Reserve officials hinted at support for interest rate hikes, and a tech stock sell-off boosted U.S. Treasuries. Additionally, Bi
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Dallas Fed President Logan supported this week's Federal Reserve decision but still believes two more rate hikes are needed.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan expressed support for the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates this week, but she continues to believe the Federal Reserve still needs to raise rates
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem Says More Rate Hikes Needed Soon to Bring Inflation to Target
St. Louis Fed President Musalem Says More Rate Hikes Needed Soon to Bring Inflation to Target
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem: It will be necessary to tighten monetary policy further "soon" to address high inflation and loose financial conditions.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday that he judges it necessary to tighten monetary policy further "soon." He noted that despite the Federal Reserve's decision this week to keep int
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem: Judged it necessary to further tighten monetary policy "soon," otherwise inflation could be too high unless the Federal Reserve raises rates further.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that he judges it necessary to "soon" further tighten monetary policy. He outlined two inflation scenarios, with the one he considers more likely being:
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Federal Reserve official Musalem called for prompt interest rate hikes to restore price stability, stating that inflation risks persist and financial conditions remain loose.
Federal Reserve official Alberto Musalem stated that given persistent and still upward-biased inflation risks, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates again "soon" to restore price stability
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Federal Reserve insider Nick Timiraos: US Q3 employer benefit costs rose by 3.9%, exceeding wage growth of 3.1%, due to a surge in health insurance costs.
Federal Reserve insider Nick Timiraos, citing Employment Cost Index (ECI) data, noted that U.S. employer benefit costs surged by 3.9% in the third quarter, surpassing the 3.1% growth in wages and sala
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The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee Sounds AI Inflation Alarm: Can the Crypto Market Hold the $75,000 Mark?
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee warned that excessive market expectations for AI productivity could lead to rising inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and potentially even triggering stagflation. This warning has garnered attention across global financial markets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility recently. After surpassing the $80,000 mark, the market is closely watching whether it can consistently hold the critical support level of $75,000 amidst macroeconomic headwinds.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
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From Event to Your Screen: The Four Hurdles a Financial News Alert Must Clear
By the time the news is seen, half the market move has already happened. The problem often lies not in judgment, but in the sequence of information arrival. A financial news flash, from event occurrence to reaching the reader, must pass through four checkpoints: source coverage, deduplication and compression, traceable origin, and multi-language synchronization. This article breaks down this chain and provides three questions for ordinary investors to filter out noise.
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What is FED Coin? An Analysis of the Cryptocurrency of the Same Name and the Concept of the Federal Reserve's Digital Currency
The term "FED coin" carries a dual meaning within the cryptocurrency space: it can refer to low-market-cap cryptocurrencies circulating on the market, such as "Federal Reserve (FED)" or "FEDCOIN," which have no official affiliation with the Federal Reserve System and exhibit extremely low trading volumes; alternatively, it may informally refer to the concept of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) that the Federal Reserve is currently researching and exploring. This article will elaborate on the background, current status, and related developments of these two types of "FED coins" separately.
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Bitcoin Breaks $80,000: Buying Emerges Amid Volatile Federal Reserve Policy Expectations, Who's Positioning?
Bitcoin's price recently surged from around $63,000 in mid-August, briefly breaking above $81,000 on August 26, setting a multi-month high. This rally comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy fluctuate; the CME tool still shows a high probability of maintaining current interest rates, but expectations for a rate hike within the year have increased. On-chain data indicates that large "whale" investors actively accumulated Bitcoin when it retested the $60,000 mark, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded strong net inflows, suggesting that institutional capital is a significant driver of this rebound.
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Bitcoin tops $80,000, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike pause grow, who is actively positioning?
As of August 25, 2026, Bitcoin's price surpassed $80,000, marking its best week since 2023. This strong rebound comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in September are rising, with the probability of a pause in rate hikes briefly reaching 70%. Amid changing macroeconomic conditions and fluctuating ETF capital flows, large Bitcoin holders (whales) and institutional investors have emerged as the primary buying force, actively buying the dips and demonstrating a strategic willingness to allocate to scarce assets.
Federal Reserve
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