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Forecasting the market
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Svmuu Evening Brief
1. Robinhood excludes certain prediction market contracts due to concerns over market manipulation and insider trading risks; 2. X Product Lead: Reduces aggregated account revenue share to 60%, will c
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Google News Accidentally Displays Polymarket Prediction Market Results, Official Statement Attributes It to System Error
Svmuu News Some links to Polymarket's prediction markets briefly appeared in the search results of Google's news service, Google News, displayed alongside mainstream media news, but were subsequently
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Analyst: Bitcoin and Ethereum Approach Critical Price Levels, Possibly Signaling Market Trend Reversal
Svmuu News Macro analyst Jordi Visser stated that despite widespread market expectations of the crypto industry entering a bear market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are less than 10% away from key levels that
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Robinhood Excludes Certain Prediction Market Contracts Due to Concerns Over Market Manipulation and Insider Trading Risks
Svmuu News Robinhood, while accelerating its expansion into prediction markets, has proactively excluded certain contract products due to concerns that they could facilitate market manipulation and in
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Viewpoint: If BTC Breaks Above $76,000 and ETH Breaks Above $2,400, an Uptrend May Be Imminent
Svmuu News Macro investor Jordi Visser stated that Bitcoin and Ethereum are not far from key price levels that could signal a trend reversal this year, despite a growing consensus within the industry
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Polymarket's "Iran-Israel/US Conflict Ends Before April 15" Probability Drops to 47%, Down 22% in 24 Hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for the Polymarket contract "Iran-Israel/US Conflict Ends Before April 15" has dropped to 47%, down 22% in 24 hours; the probability for "Iran-
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Polymarket's "Rory McIlroy Wins the 2026 US Masters" Probability Rises to 70%, Up 46% in 24 Hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for "Rory McIlroy wins the 2026 US Masters" on Polymarket has risen to 70%, a 46% increase in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for
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U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Announces First Members of Innovation Working Group to Advance Cryptocurrency Regulatory Clarity
Svmuu News The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Mike Selig has announced the first members of the newly established Innovation Working Group, aiming to provide clear industry
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Account with Only 43% Win Rate Purchases $200,000 on Hornets Defeating Pistons in NBA Regular Season
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "Hornets vs. Pistons NBA Regular Season," an account with only a 43% win rate (address: 0xe0f01e5ce19e71138a1fc77d3b466f50b7
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Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" Probability Drops to 43%, Down 12% in 24 Hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for the Polymarket event "Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by May 31" has significantly decreased, dropping 6% in 1 hour and 12% in 24 hours.
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World Cup Prediction Market Heats Up, Gate Platform Shows Spain's Probability of Winning "2026 World Cup Champion" at 15.4%
Svmuu News: The World Cup prediction market heated up today, with odds distribution becoming more dispersed and market divergence intensifying. As a CEX integrated with Polymarket, data from the Gate
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Caixin: Polymarket's Use of USDC for Settlement and Delivery Poses Significant Legal Risks for Participants in Mainland China
Svmuu News Caixin.com published an article titled "Financial Innovation or Insider Trading? The Rise and Controversy of Polymarket." It points out that when insider information can be openly monetized
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NBA Regular Season Bulls Cover Spread Against Wizards, Account Losing Over $4.3 Million Makes Single-Game Profit Exceeding $190,000
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the outcome of the prediction event "NBA Regular Season Bulls vs. Wizards Game Winner" on Polymarket has been determined, with the Bulls achieving a cover vict
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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. CZ: Willing to bet $1 billion on whether a formal divorce has occurred; 2. Star: Will not participate in public betting and demands CZ clarify false statements involving them; 3. WLFI plans to subm
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Polymarket's "Taylor Swift Will Get Married by the End of June" Probability Drops to 19%, Plunging 45% in 24 Hours
Monitoring by Svmuu Seer Channel shows that the probability of "Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce getting married before June 30" on Polymarket has dropped to 19%, a 45% decrease in 24 hours. Previous mai
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White House Warns Staff Against Using Insider Information for Predictive Market Trading
Svmuu News The White House has internally reminded staff not to use policy-related insider information for trading on prediction markets. The warning was issued on March 23, around the time when US Pr
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The probability of Polymarket's "OneFootball Club's FDV exceeding $50 million market cap one day after listing" has dropped to 14%, with a 24H decline of 51%
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "OneFootball Club's FDV exceeding $50 million market cap one day after listing" on Polymarket has dropped to 14%, with a 24-hour decline of
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Account with over $4.3 million in losses purchases a total of $190,000 on Chicago Bulls to cover the spread against Washington Wizards in NBA regular season
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "NBA Regular Season: Chicago Bulls vs. Washington Wizards," an account with over $4.3 million in losses (address: 0x492442ea
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Polymarket "Trump Announces End of Military Action Against Iran by April 21" Probability Drops to 21%, Down 22% in 24 Hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of the Polymarket contract "Trump Announces End of Military Action Against Iran by April 21" has sharply dropped to 21%, a 24-hour decrease of
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Binance Wallet Integrates Predict.fun to Launch Gas-Free Prediction Market Trading
Svmuu News Binance Wallet has integrated Predict.fun, expanding the on-chain prediction market functionality from the testing phase to a broader scope, and providing users with Gas fee subsidies for t
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Social App Giggles Completes Over $1 Million Pre-Seed Funding, Led by 1kx
Svmuu News: Social application Giggles, which integrates prediction market mechanisms, announced the completion of over $1 million in Pre-Seed funding. The round was led by 1kx, with participation fro
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Binance Announces Integration with Predict.fun and Launches Prediction Market Feature
According to official news, the Binance App has integrated the third-party platform Predict.fun and officially launched a prediction market feature. Users can participate in on-chain probability tradi
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CFTC Seeks to Block Arizona's Enforcement Against Kalshi, Argues Sports Prediction Contracts Are Federally Regulated Financial Derivatives
Svmuu News The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice filed documents in federal court on Tuesday, seeking to prevent Arizona from applying its gambling laws to
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NBA Regular Season Thunder Defeat Clippers, Win Rate Exceeds 58%, Account Profits Over $80,000 in Single Game
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the outcome of the prediction event "NBA Regular Season Thunder vs. Clippers Game Winner" on Polymarket has been settled, with the Thunder winning this game. T
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Judge stays CFTC's civil case against US soldier over illegal Polymarket bet, regulator now seeks to weigh in on criminal proceedings
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, while the regulator is attempting to weigh in on the related criminal case.
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Needham Says Crypto Rally Has Strong Momentum, Prediction Market Kalshi Expects Bitcoin to Reach $90,000 This Year
Needham stated that the cryptocurrency rebound is strong, believing that the large-scale sell-off has largely ended and investor attention is shifting towards digital assets. The prediction market Kal
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Yahoo Finance Review: Gemini exchange offers bank-grade security and regulation, but has higher trading fees and limited coin selection
Reviews indicate that the Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss brothers in 2014, operates as a New York trust company and is strictly regulated by state banking authorities, having reported no l
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Argus Downgrades DraftKings (DKNG) to Hold From Buy, Removes Price Target on Rising Costs, Tax Uncertainty
Argus noted that DraftKings' stock price has fallen by 43.22% over the past year, primarily due to high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes, and increased competition in prediction m
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
Under the planned tie-up, Gemini Titan will become the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. Gemini w
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Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Bans in Multiple US States Amid Legal Battles, While CFTC Defends Industry and Proposes New Rules
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is currently blocked for customers in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada, with Washington state authorities accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling bu
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Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin to end 2026 near current levels, around $75,000
Speculators on the prediction market platform estimate Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts. This forecast suggests a slight decline from
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Prediction Markets Increasingly Skeptical on Near-Term US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices the chances of a deal at 11% before March 1, 2027, 22% before January 1, 2028, and 35% before January 20, 2029.
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Research shows Bitcoin contracts on prediction market Kalshi increasingly lead Binance price discovery as BTC breaks $68,000
Research by financial forecasting firm Synth has found that the price movements of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi are increasingly predictive of subsequent Bitcoin price changes on Binance. Sin
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Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi Prediction Market Trading to Its ~3,000 Institutional Clients
The investment bank will help its institutional clients execute block event contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange. This move aims to increase institutional participation in prediction market
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
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Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin Attorney General in anticipation of state lawsuit over sports contracts
Prediction market platform Novig has filed a lawsuit against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett. The move is preemptive, as Novig anticipates Wisconsin wi
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Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting with cryptocurrency CEOs at the White House this Wednesday, sources say
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House this Wednesday that will bring together CEOs of cryptocurrency, prediction market, and artificial intelligence companies,
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Hyperliquid ETFs See Inflow Reversal Amidst Rising Perpetual Futures Competition
Funds including Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG), Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), and 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) initially performed well, with HYPG nearing $113 million in AUM and the la
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Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
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Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
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Gemini shares slide after reporting $108 million loss; Winklevoss says 'we still have work to do'
The crypto exchange's prediction market volume nearly doubled as it continued expanding beyond traditional crypto trading.
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Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
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US CFTC to hold meeting on Aug. 20 to explore crypto, AI, and prediction market regulations with SEC, without waiting for CLARITY bill
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a meeting for its Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20 to address regulation related to crypto assets, artificial intelligence and pred
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US CFTC cautions prediction market platforms over "deficient" incentive program filings, citing manipulation risks
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance, expressing concern over an increase in "procedurally or substantively deficient" filings from prediction market firms for ince
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Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
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SKALE Labs launches Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired paper-trading sandbox for training AI agents
SKALE Labs launched Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired, paper-trading prediction market sandbox on its zero-gas blockchain, allowing builders to train AI agents before taking them live on Polymarket.
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Gemini Exchange: The Path to Regulatory Compliance and Strategic Transformation
Founded in 2014 by the Winklevoss twins, the Gemini exchange is known for its strict regulatory compliance, holding a NYDFS trust charter and CFTC derivatives license. In 2025, Gemini filed for an IPO, and in 2026, it announced its "Gemini 2.0" strategy, shifting its focus to prediction markets and event contracts, while also adjusting its international market presence. Despite facing the Gemini Earn controversy and SEC charges, customer compensation has been completed. The platform is renowned for its security, but users have expressed negative feedback regarding its customer service and account issues.
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Forecasting the market
24H Trending
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1
Crypto Adoption Reaches 25% in Europe's Four Largest Economies: Banks Accelerate Layout Under MiCA Push
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Dollar Rises, U.S. Treasury Yields Fall
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3
Retired Lineman Made Costly Error by Accepting $310,000 Pension Buyout Check Personally, Triggering 20% Federal Withholding and Potential Tax Penalties
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AI scammers are scouring obituaries to target widows, with one losing $7,000 after being told her late husband evaded taxes
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Exclusive: India plans to issue its first tokenized corporate bonds in September, to be issued by state-owned REC, worth less than $57 million, and will be settled using central bank digital currency
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
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T. Rowe Price to acquire fixed income fund manager F/m Investments, which manages $19bn in assets
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Ozon, Russia's second-largest online retailer, saw its shares drop by 12% after its warehouse was hit by a Ukrainian drone attack.
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Bybit to support STABLE (STABLE) network upgrade on Aug 26, 2026; deposits and withdrawals to be temporarily suspended.
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The Deep Integration Trend of TRON with FinTech
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