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Forecasting the market
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Gate Prediction Market: Probability of Hantavirus Pandemic in 2026 Drops to Approximately 7%
According to data from Gate, a CEX platform integrated with Polymarket, the "Yes" probability in the "2026 Hantavirus Pandemic" event is currently around 7%, a significant decline from previous levels
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Polymarket New Market: "Will a confirmed Hantavirus case occur in the US before May 15?"
Monitoring from Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Will there be a confirmed Hantavirus case in the US before May 15?" The probability of "Yes" is currently a
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Polymarket's "Hantavirus pandemic in 2026" probability has dropped to 7%, falling 28% this week
Svmuu Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket "Hantavirus pandemic in 2026" prediction event has seen its probability drop to 7%, a decline of 28% this week. The settlement criteria
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A loss of over $1.96M account purchased $156k worth of "UFC 328 Flyweight Championship: Tatsuro Taira to defeat Joshua Van"
Monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel shows that in the Polymarket "UFC 328 Flyweight Championship: Tatsuro Taira VS Joshua Van" prediction event, an account with losses exceeding $1.96 million purchas
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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. Strategy CEO: Will only sell Bitcoin under specific circumstances such as dividend payments or tax optimization; 2. Strategy CEO: Strategy has achieved a 9.4% BTC yield and $5 billion in BTC gains
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CFTC and SEC Strengthen Oversight Collaboration on Prediction Markets, Potentially Expanding Enforcement Scope
According to FOX reporter Charles Gasparino, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission are currently strengthening their collaboration on the regula
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The ETF Store President: Prediction Market ETFs May Be Launched Soon
Svmuu News: Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, posted on platform X, stating that SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce recently mentioned in a speech that the regulatory body is attempting to strike a
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Account with losses exceeding $1.5 million had total purchases of $260,000; Thunder defeated Lakers by the spread in Game 3 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals
The Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "NBA Western Conference Semifinals G3 Thunder vs. Lakers" prediction event, an account that has lost over $1.5 million (address:
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Polymarket launches new "When will Trump administration declassify new batch of UFO files" event
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event titled "When will the Trump administration declassify the next batch of UFO files." According to information on
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Win rate 55% account purchases $200,000 on Knicks defeating 76ers in NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Semifinals G3
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Semifinals G3 Knicks vs. 76ers" prediction event, an account with a win rate over 55% (address: 0xa71093cafc
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Polymarket odds of "S&P 500 reaching 8,000 points by end of June" currently stand at 10%
Svmuu Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that as the S&P 500 breaks through 7,400 points to hit a new all-time high, the probability on Polymarket of "S&P 500 reaching 8,000 points by the end of J
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Polymarket Merges Cross-Chain Bridge Deposit Recovery Tool
According to the official documentation of the prediction market platform Polymarket, the Bridge Deposit page has consolidated the previously separate Ethereum and Polygon deposit recovery tools into
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A 53% win-rate account purchased $200,000 worth of bets on the Thunder covering a 15.5-point spread against the Lakers in NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 2
Monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel shows that in the Polymarket "NBA Western Conference Semifinals G2: Thunder vs. Lakers" prediction event, an account with a 53% win rate (address: 0xc8075693f48668
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Coinbase reports net loss of $394 million in Q1, total revenue falls to $1.41 billion
Svmuu reports that according to its Q1 2026 financial results, impacted by declining crypto asset prices and reduced trading activity, the company recorded a net loss of $394.1 million for the quarter
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An account with losses exceeding $2.3 million placed a $210,000 bet on Game 2 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals, where the Pistons beat the Cavaliers as the underdog.
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Semifinals G2 Pistons vs. Cavaliers" prediction event, an account with losses exceeding $2.3 million (addres
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Arkham Launches Predictive Market Data Analysis Feature, Allowing Users to Track Trader Holdings and Profit Performance
Svmuureports that Arkham has launched a predictive market data analysis feature, enabling users to track the on-chain behavior, holdings, and comprehensive performance analysis of traders in the predi
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Kalshi completes $1 billion funding round led by Coatue Management
Svmuu News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has announced the completion of a new $1 billion funding round, led by Coatue Management, propelling the company’s valuation to $22 billion. Kalshi is a p
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Predict.fun Launches "Who Will Top This Week's XHunt Chinese KOL Rankings", CZ Probability Currently at 83%
Monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel shows that the prediction market Predict.fun has launched a new event: "Who Will Top This Week's XHunt Chinese KOL Rankings," with total trading volume exceeding $
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U.S. CFTC Chair: State-Level Lawsuits Over Prediction Markets Could Ultimately Reach the Supreme Court
Svmuu News: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig stated at Consensus 2026 that the CFTC has filed lawsuits against regulatory agencies in approximately five to six states,
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Champions League: PSG's title probability rises to 57%, up 29% in 24 hours
Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "UEFA Champions League Winner" prediction event, Paris Saint-Germain's winning probability has now risen to 57%, up 29% in 24 hours. Ar
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Account with over $2.2 million in profit purchases $60,000 on 76ers defeating Knicks in NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals G2
According to monitoring by Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel, in the Polymarket "NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals G2 76ers vs. Knicks" prediction event, an account with over $2.2 million in profit (address:
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US Diplomats Warned: Do Not Use Classified Information to Bet on Prediction Sites
SvmuuNews According to an internal State Department memo seen by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. diplomats have been warned not to use classified information to place bets on prediction websites. As lar
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Gate Prediction Market: MegaETH's First-Day FDV Mainstream Expectation Ranges Between $1.5 Billion and $2 Billion
SvmuuNews According to Gate's prediction market data, in the event related to "MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?", the market expects its valuation to exceed $1.5 billion but finds it dif
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Polymarket new event “Will US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump’s visit to China?”
Svmuu Seer monitoring shows a new prediction event on Polymarket: “Will US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump’s visit to China?”. Currently, the probability of reaching a permanen
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Judge stays CFTC's civil case against US soldier over illegal Polymarket bet, regulator now seeks to weigh in on criminal proceedings
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, while the regulator is attempting to weigh in on the related criminal case.
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Needham Says Crypto Rally Has Strong Momentum, Prediction Market Kalshi Expects Bitcoin to Reach $90,000 This Year
Needham stated that the cryptocurrency rebound is strong, believing that the large-scale sell-off has largely ended and investor attention is shifting towards digital assets. The prediction market Kal
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Yahoo Finance Review: Gemini exchange offers bank-grade security and regulation, but has higher trading fees and limited coin selection
Reviews indicate that the Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss brothers in 2014, operates as a New York trust company and is strictly regulated by state banking authorities, having reported no l
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Argus Downgrades DraftKings (DKNG) to Hold From Buy, Removes Price Target on Rising Costs, Tax Uncertainty
Argus noted that DraftKings' stock price has fallen by 43.22% over the past year, primarily due to high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes, and increased competition in prediction m
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
Under the planned tie-up, Gemini Titan will become the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. Gemini w
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Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Bans in Multiple US States Amid Legal Battles, While CFTC Defends Industry and Proposes New Rules
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is currently blocked for customers in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada, with Washington state authorities accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling bu
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Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin to end 2026 near current levels, around $75,000
Speculators on the prediction market platform estimate Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts. This forecast suggests a slight decline from
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Prediction Markets Increasingly Skeptical on Near-Term US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices the chances of a deal at 11% before March 1, 2027, 22% before January 1, 2028, and 35% before January 20, 2029.
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Research shows Bitcoin contracts on prediction market Kalshi increasingly lead Binance price discovery as BTC breaks $68,000
Research by financial forecasting firm Synth has found that the price movements of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi are increasingly predictive of subsequent Bitcoin price changes on Binance. Sin
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Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi Prediction Market Trading to Its ~3,000 Institutional Clients
The investment bank will help its institutional clients execute block event contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange. This move aims to increase institutional participation in prediction market
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
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Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin Attorney General in anticipation of state lawsuit over sports contracts
Prediction market platform Novig has filed a lawsuit against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett. The move is preemptive, as Novig anticipates Wisconsin wi
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Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting with cryptocurrency CEOs at the White House this Wednesday, sources say
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House this Wednesday that will bring together CEOs of cryptocurrency, prediction market, and artificial intelligence companies,
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Hyperliquid ETFs See Inflow Reversal Amidst Rising Perpetual Futures Competition
Funds including Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG), Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), and 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) initially performed well, with HYPG nearing $113 million in AUM and the la
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Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
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Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
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Gemini shares slide after reporting $108 million loss; Winklevoss says 'we still have work to do'
The crypto exchange's prediction market volume nearly doubled as it continued expanding beyond traditional crypto trading.
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Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
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US CFTC to hold meeting on Aug. 20 to explore crypto, AI, and prediction market regulations with SEC, without waiting for CLARITY bill
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a meeting for its Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20 to address regulation related to crypto assets, artificial intelligence and pred
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US CFTC cautions prediction market platforms over "deficient" incentive program filings, citing manipulation risks
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance, expressing concern over an increase in "procedurally or substantively deficient" filings from prediction market firms for ince
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Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
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SKALE Labs launches Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired paper-trading sandbox for training AI agents
SKALE Labs launched Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired, paper-trading prediction market sandbox on its zero-gas blockchain, allowing builders to train AI agents before taking them live on Polymarket.
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Gemini Exchange: The Path to Regulatory Compliance and Strategic Transformation
Founded in 2014 by the Winklevoss twins, the Gemini exchange is known for its strict regulatory compliance, holding a NYDFS trust charter and CFTC derivatives license. In 2025, Gemini filed for an IPO, and in 2026, it announced its "Gemini 2.0" strategy, shifting its focus to prediction markets and event contracts, while also adjusting its international market presence. Despite facing the Gemini Earn controversy and SEC charges, customer compensation has been completed. The platform is renowned for its security, but users have expressed negative feedback regarding its customer service and account issues.
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Forecasting the market
24H Trending
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Crypto Adoption Reaches 25% in Europe's Four Largest Economies: Banks Accelerate Layout Under MiCA Push
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Dollar Rises, U.S. Treasury Yields Fall
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AI scammers are scouring obituaries to target widows, with one losing $7,000 after being told her late husband evaded taxes
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T. Rowe Price to acquire fixed income fund manager F/m Investments, which manages $19bn in assets
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Ozon, Russia's second-largest online retailer, saw its shares drop by 12% after its warehouse was hit by a Ukrainian drone attack.
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
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Exclusive: India plans to issue its first tokenized corporate bonds in September, to be issued by state-owned REC, worth less than $57 million, and will be settled using central bank digital currency
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Bybit to support STABLE (STABLE) network upgrade on Aug 26, 2026; deposits and withdrawals to be temporarily suspended.
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Retired Lineman Made Costly Error by Accepting $310,000 Pension Buyout Check Personally, Triggering 20% Federal Withholding and Potential Tax Penalties
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How to Choose a Reliable Cryptocurrency Exchange Platform? A Guide to Evaluating Mainstream Platforms
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