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Inflation
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Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: It's premature to judge the impact of the war on inflation; temporary price shocks can be overlooked for now
Svmuureported that Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated it is currently too early to determine the impact of the Iran war on inflation, and policymakers need to adopt a "look through" approach to te
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Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: If Credibility in Monetary Policy is Maintained, Energy Shocks Can Be Ignored
Svmuureports that Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that if the Fed maintains credibility in its monetary policy, it can overlook energy shocks. If war-driven inflation spreads, consideration wil
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Federal Reserve's Schmid: Must Clearly Communicate Commitment to Curbing Inflation
Svmuu reported that Federal Reserve's Schmid stated he will continue to closely monitor persistently high inflation, and believes that Fed officials should clearly indicate their willingness to take a
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Fed's Schmid: Primary focus is on bringing inflation back to the 2% target
Svmuu News: Fed's Schmid said the primary focus is on bringing inflation back to the 2% target. (Jin10)
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Former BOJ Board Member: BoJ’s June Rate Hike is Crucial to Avoid Falling Behind the Inflation Curve
Svmuureported that Makoto Sakurai, who served as a board member of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) from 2016 to 2021, stated that the central bank is highly likely to raise interest rates next month, and this
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Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve: It is too early to conclude that an immediate rate hike is needed after April PCE inflation data.
SvmuuNews: Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve stated that it is too early to conclude that an immediate rate hike is needed following the release of April PCE inflation data. (Jinshi)
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Opinion: Market still underestimates potential tightening policies of the Fed
Svmuureported that T. Rowe Price Chief US Economist Blerina Uruci said the market may still be underestimating the possibility of further tightening by the Federal Reserve. In a report, Uruci noted th
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Federal Reserve's Musalem: Scenarios Requiring Rate Hikes Exist
Svmuureports that Federal Reserve official Musalem stated that scenarios exist where the economy may require rate hikes. He believes there is a risk that inflation may not converge to the target as de
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Federal Reserve's Musalem: Cannot Count on AI Boom to Solve Inflation Issues
Svmuu, Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that policymakers cannot rely on the potential productivity boom from artificial intelligence to alleviate persistently high inflation. Musalem noted: "I believ
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Federal Reserve’s Musalem: Higher real interest rates should be addressed through rate hike policies
Svmuu reported that Federal Reserve’s Musalem stated that higher real interest rates should be addressed through rate hike policies. It is currently unclear whether the U.S. is in a period of high pro
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Analysis: Signs of Market Fatigue Under US-Iran Conflict, Strengthening Global Expectation That ‘High Interest Rates Will Persist Longer’
According to a research note from Bank of New York Mellon analyst Bob Savage, the market is showing signs of increasing fatigue. Bob Savage stated that the renewed escalation of the US-Iran military c
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Federal Reserve's Williams: Unclear How Productivity Boom Will Impact Interest Rates
Svmuu reported that Federal Reserve's Williams stated it remains unclear how improvements in productivity will ultimately affect interest rates and the central bank's policy decisions. Williams said,
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"Fed Whisperer": April Core PCE Rose a Moderate 0.24% Month-over-Month, Annualized Rate Remains at 2.9%
Svmuu News "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos stated that the core PCE price index rose 0.24% in April. While this is the most moderate month-over-month increase in the past five months, the annualized rat
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Analysis: As Inflation Accelerates, Fed Chair Warsh May Need to Convince Colleagues That Rate Hikes Aren't Necessarily the Answer
Svmuu reported that driven by soaring energy prices due to the Iran situation, U.S. consumer spending increased slightly in April, with the annual inflation rate accelerating to its highest level sinc
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Fed's Favored PCE Inflation Strengthens, May Continue to Hold Steady
Svmuu reported that driven by rising energy prices due to the Iran war, the U.S. inflation rate in April hit its fastest pace in three years, further solidifying economists' views that the Federal Res
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U.S. April Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year 3.3%, Expected 3.30%
Svmuureported that the U.S. Core PCE Price Index for April recorded a year-over-year rate of 3.3%, in line with the expected 3.30%, compared to the previous value of 3.20%. (Jin10)
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PCE expected to rise to 3.8%, U.S. April PCE to be released at 8:30 PM tonight, with core PCE year-over-year expected at 3.3%
Svmuu reports that the U.S. April PCE data will be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. The market expects the April PCE year-over-year increase to be 3.8%, compared to the previous value of 3.5%
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Federal Reserve’s Goolsbee: Rising AI productivity expectations combined with rising oil prices may force central banks to raise interest rates
Svmuu reported that Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday further intensified his warning: the market’s growing expectations for AI’s potential to boost productivity could push up inflatio
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Jefferson: Federal Reserve: Action is needed to restore the 2% inflation target
Svmuu reported that Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that it is very important not only to communicate but also to take action so that the public understands our intention and commitment
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Federal Reserve’s Kashkari: Prolonged Iran War Could Trigger a 'Series' of US Rate Hikes
Svmuu News: According to Nikkei Asia, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed may implement a "series" of interest rate hikes in response to inflationary issues
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Former New York Fed President Dudley: Inflation Has Missed Targets for Years, Federal Reserve's Credibility Is at Risk
Svmuu News: Former New York Fed President William Dudley warned that the Federal Reserve’s credibility as an “inflation fighter” is at risk of being lost, given its long-term failure to meet the 2% in
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Brent crude oil price rose to an intraday high, breaking $100 per barrel
According to Gate data, Brent crude oil price rose to an intraday high, breaking through $100 per barrel.
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Analyst: The path of least resistance for gold prices remains downward
Svmuu News On Tuesday, gold prices fell; Earlier, the renewed tensions between the US and Iran pushed Brent crude oil prices higher and clouded the outlook for US interest rates, causing concerns over
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Economist: Japan's 10-Year Government Bond Yield May Rise to 3.1% in the Second Half of FY2027
Svmuu News According to economists at Daiwa Institute of Research, Japan's 10-year government bond yield is expected to rise to around 3.1% in the second half of fiscal year 2027. Fiscal year 2027 end
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Asian Stocks, Bonds Set to Decline Thursday on Inflation Jitters
The decline tracks Wall Street losses as an oil rally and stronger-than-expected US economic data fueled inflation concerns and bets on further interest-rate hikes. The yen, near a three-week low, wil
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US Treasury yields soar, with 10-year note hitting 5.125% and 2-year note topping 4.9%, threatening higher borrowing costs for consumers
Government debt costs leaped higher on Wednesday, driven by factors including a report showing increased inflation pressures, surging expectations for an October Fed rate hike, and weak demand at a 5-
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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ECB's Lane: Eurozone HICP inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In a speech in Geneva, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, unveiled the ECB's September macroeconomic projections, forecasting HICP inflation for the Eurozone a
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McDonald's CEO expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist in restaurant industry
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated on Wednesday that the company does not anticipate a change in these conditions, viewing them as the new operating environment. He noted that in the most recent
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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U.S. September PMI data surged to a five-year high, with input costs reaching their highest since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns.
U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0, the Services PMI to 58.7, and the Composite PMI to 58.4. All figures substantially
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Germany's largest trade union, IG Metall, is seeking a 5% wage increase for 3.7 million workers, putting new pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
Germany's IG Metall union will launch a new round of wage negotiations in October, demanding a 5% pay raise for approximately 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical components industries to c
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Eastmoney Securities Research Institute Report: The world has not yet entered a phase of full tightening, and there is room to increase allocation to US Treasury bonds.
Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The re
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Analysts conclude their longest upgrade cycle in five years, holding a net negative view on U.S. corporate earnings prospects for the first time.
For the first time in months, equity analysts have turned net negative on the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reflecting concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on company
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Hong Kong's August overall consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY, underlying inflation 1.9%
Hong Kong's overall consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year in August, matching July's figure. The underlying inflation rate, which excludes one-off government relief measures, also remained unchang
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks warns: Out-of-control US fiscal discipline is the fundamental reason for rising interest rates, with the current deficit at about 6% of GDP.
Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks stated in his latest memo on Tuesday that the uncontrolled fiscal discipline in the U.S. is the fundamental reason for rising long-term interest rates, and that
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Singapore Core Inflation Rises Third Month to 2.2% in August, Highest Since 2024
Singapore's core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in August, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest
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Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day.
Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day, with the cost of filling up a tank increasing by 40% since the beginning of the year.
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ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
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Citigroup Survey: Inflation Overtakes Tariffs as Family Offices' Top Concern, Wealthy Flock to Gold and US Equities
Inflation has supplanted trade wars and tariffs as the top risk concern for ultra-high-net-worth individuals this year, with interest rate changes and global financial system stability closely followi
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Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
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Fed’s Collins Says Last Week’s Rate Hike Will Help Return Inflation to Goal
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she supported last week’s decision to raise interest rates, which she said would help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Demand Surges at South African Bond Auction Ahead of Rate Call
Demand surged at an auction of South African government bonds as investors sought relatively high yields ahead of inflation data and a central bank policy meeting scheduled for later this week.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
Inflation
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