Wallstreetcn Analysis: Besides explicit factors, the strengthening dollar is also due to a structural evolution in the global dollar liquidity mechanism, with the private sector replacing official institutions as the core support.
Wallstreetcn.com analysis points out that in addition to explicit factors such as the recovery of the US economy and geopolitical conflicts pushing up inflation, the strengthening of the US dollar is also due to a subtle structural evolution in the global dollar liquidity mechanism, which has formed an unnoticed bottom support for the dollar. Among these, the overseas private sector is replacing the official sector as the core force in global dollar absorption and allocation. Even under the "de-dollarization" narrative, dollar buying is unlikely to truly dry up. This trend is reflected in the continuous decline in the proportion of global central banks' dollar foreign exchange reserves, while the private sector's share of holding US long-term securities has risen from 67% in 2008 to 83% in the past five years. The analysis suggests that the acceleration of the "foreign exchange hidden among the people" trend since 2020 may be related to the global AI industry wave. Overseas technology companies' rigid dollar demand for future AI capital expenditures has led to the formation of an "external closed loop" for the dollar outside the American continent. Furthermore, the private sector's allocation logic, centered on risk-return ratios, has made it a core holding force in the US Treasury market. The outperformance of US equity assets has strengthened the preference for dollar allocation, and carry trades have further solidified the dollar's pivotal position. The article also warns that this pro-cyclical loop, built by profit-seeking capital and carry trade leverage, while supporting the dollar in the short term, also harbors immense inherent fragility. It could amplify volatility in overseas asset markets and inversely impact the global foreign exchange and cross-border liquidity environment.
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