Eagle Capital Management: NVIDIA's AI Dominance May Face Challenges, Customer Self-Developed Chips to Squeeze Its Market Share and Profit Margins
Investment management firm Eagle Capital Management noted in its Q2 2026 investor letter that despite NVIDIA's dominance in the AI accelerator chip market, its largest customers (including Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic) are all developing in-house chip projects. As the market expands, these custom projects become more economical and offer better value for money. Eagle Capital Management believes that NVIDIA's gross margins of 75-80% imply a high markup on TSMC wafers, which will further incentivize customers to switch to self-developed chips. The firm anticipates that as NVIDIA's market share peaks and begins to decline, its profit margins may also decrease as it faces direct and indirect competition from its largest customers. Given these dynamics, Eagle Capital Management is reallocating capital from the most crowded AI trades to other attractive opportunities, while still selectively holding high-quality beneficiaries.
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