India, the world's largest sugar consumer, has seen its retail sugar prices rise from 40 rupees per kilogram in September 2025 to 75 rupees (approximately $0.79) in recent months. The government projects sugar output for the current season (October 2025 to September 2026) to be around 30.6 million tons, an 11% decrease from the previous estimate of 34.3 million tons. This decline is primarily attributed to reduced sugarcane acreage and insufficient rainfall caused by El Niño. Additionally, some farmers shifting to other crops, rising labor costs, and low returns from sugarcane cultivation have exacerbated supply tightness. The increase in sugar prices coincides with India's festive season, when dessert sales account for over 40% of annual revenue. Traditional sweets contain as much as 30-60% sugar, putting pressure on festive spending for low-income households.