HSBC Qianhai: China's pharmaceutical sector sees increasing divergence, with leading innovative drug companies embracing BD for a second growth curve.
HSBC Qianhai's latest research report indicates that China's pharmaceutical sector is undergoing a structural revaluation amid anti-corruption efforts and pressure to control medical insurance costs, with the average share price of pharmaceutical companies correcting by approximately 19% in the first half of this year. The report suggests that the proportion of innovative drugs will segment the sector into different growth trajectories, projecting product revenue growth of 10% to 15% for leading innovative drug companies from 2027 to 2028, with innovative drug revenue growth exceeding 20%. Concurrently, global Phase III clinical progress of overseas licensed assets and BD (business development) milestone payments are seen as the second growth engine for 2027-2028, gradually replacing domestic sales data as the primary driver for the valuation of top pharmaceutical companies. HSBC Qianhai names Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group as its top pick and expects BD revenue for Hengrui Medicine and Hansoh to continue growing, while Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group (CSPC) and Sino Biopharmaceutical's growth rates may decline.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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