Goldman Sachs Analysis: WTI Crude Oil and 10-Year US Treasury Yield Correlation Rises to 35-Year High
Isabel Blaze, an analyst with Goldman Sachs' FICC and Commodities team, noted in her latest report that the correlation between WTI crude oil and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has risen to its highest level in 35 years, while the correlation between equities and yields has fallen to its most negative level since 1960. The report suggests that the pricing logic in the crude oil options market is no longer centered on supply shocks but on interest rate fluctuations in the bond market, leading to a significant increase in put option skew and a drop in call option skew below pre-war levels. With the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield currently at a high of 5.32%, upward risks for crude oil are largely unhedged, and macro portfolios' exposure to interest rate volatility is implicitly transmitted through crude oil positions. Goldman Sachs points out that if geopolitical tensions escalate again, oil prices and the bond market will face a dual shock.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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