Goldman Sachs warns: The AI capital expenditure cycle is approaching an inflection point, with two of three major risk signals for US stocks already flashing.
Goldman Sachs senior macro trader Bobby Molavi noted in his latest report that the U.S. equity market is overly reliant on a few large technology stocks, liquidity is deteriorating, and the AI capital expenditure cycle is approaching an inflection point. He identified three key signals: divergence between stock prices and actual earnings, repricing of AI borrowers in credit markets, and an actual slowdown in capital expenditure growth. The first two signals have already appeared. Goldman Sachs predicts that the capital expenditure growth of hyperscale cloud service providers may peak in Q3 2026. Additionally, the report mentioned that the spread between French bond yields and German 10-year bunds has reached 140 basis points, the highest since 1990, and highlighted pressures in energy markets.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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