CICC Research published a report stating that despite being optimistic about the return prospects of AI assets, they recommend using asset allocation to navigate recent market volatility and "buy insurance" for AI assets. The report points out that in addition to increasing allocations to defensive assets such as cash, bonds, and high-dividend stocks, a depreciating dollar trade can also help hedge AI asset risks, and suggests increasing gold allocation as an effective strategy for this trade.
The report analyzes that since 2026, the dollar has shown a period of strength, creating an "AI dollar" effect, where increased cross-border transactions in the AI industry chain boost dollar demand, and AI investments enhance US economic growth momentum, pushing up the dollar. Under this influence, the dollar has become the "dividing line" for global equity market divergence: the US, Japanese, and South Korean stock markets, deeply involved in the AI industry chain, show a positive correlation with the dollar, while the Indian stock market and the Hang Seng Index, with relatively limited AI benefits, show a negative correlation with the dollar. The report believes that a cooling of AI trading may weaken the US's relative growth advantage and dollar demand, and a depreciating dollar trade is expected to hedge against the adjustment pressure on AI assets.
CICC emphasizes that gold is an effective tool for positioning in a depreciating dollar trade, as it serves as an alternative asset to the dollar system and has a fundamental negative correlation with the dollar. The report notes that since 2026, the negative correlation between gold and the dollar has significantly strengthened, with a correlation coefficient as high as -81.2%.
CICC: Suggest increasing gold allocation to hedge AI asset risks, dollar depreciation trade is an effective strategy
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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