China and Russia are tightening their grip on Arctic shipping routes, with Moscow and Beijing last week agreeing to expand freight traffic, increase port services, and deepen cooperation on building polar vessels. This move follows the EU's unveiling of a new Arctic strategy aimed at countering growing Chinese and Russian influence.

Analysts suggest Europe's ability to challenge this partnership is limited, given Russia's control over the Northern Sea Route and China's commercial clout. The Northern Sea Route can shorten the Asia-Europe journey by approximately 35%, from 28-35 days via Suez to 18-22 days. This route offers Russia an opportunity to redirect energy exports to Asia and provides China with an alternative trade artery.

While Arctic trade currently accounts for roughly 0.3% of global shipping, it is projected to reach about 1% by 2030. A study also projects that melting polar ice could increase the Northern Sea Route's annual transit capacity to between 127 million and 463 million tonnes by 2050.