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Federal Reserve
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Analysis: The Fed Could Raise Rates as Early as Next Week; U.S. Treasury Yields Rise to Year-to-Date Highs
Svmuu News: As the threat of an escalation of the war in Iran pushed up oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the year, with the market anticipating that the Federal Reserve
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"The Fed's Voice": The July Policy Meeting Has Become One of the Most Unpredictable in Recent Years
Svmuu News: Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed’s mouthpiece,” wrote in a post on July 23 (local time) that the Fed’s July policy meeting will be one of the most difficult to predict in recent years.Risi
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Analysis: U.S. initial jobless claims fell sharply last week, and the job market remains stable.
Svmuu News: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell sharply last week, indicating that the U.S. job market remains stable and that Federal Reserve officials need to continue focusing on
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Head of Research at Grayscale: If the Fed Stops Raising Interest Rates, Bitcoin's Price May Have Already Bottomed Out
Svmuu News: Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, wrote that there are currently two main views on when the Bitcoin bear market will end: one follows the “four-year cycle,” and the other views Bi
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Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: To Build a High-Win-Rate Trading Framework for Gold, It Is Necessary to Combine Data from CME and CFTC Open Interest Reports, Among Other Sources
Svmuu News: Recently, Lewis Huang, Chief Analyst of Bitget CFD, shared advanced strategies for trading gold. He pointed out that to develop a high-win-rate gold trading strategy, traders must look bey
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Semiconductor Stocks Face Several Key Events Over the Next Two Weeks, with AI Capital Expenditures Taking Center Stage
Svmuu News: Paradis Labs posted on X stating that it is currently difficult to determine whether semiconductor stocks have bottomed out. Most AI infrastructure-related stocks rose that day, with SIVE,
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Yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds hit two-month highs as rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns
Svmuu News: The U.S. Treasury market fell, with yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries rising to their highest levels in about two months. Surging crude oil prices fueled market concerns that inflat
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All 104 economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
Svmuu News: According to a Reuters survey, all 104 economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29. Of the 104 economists, 78 (compared with 78
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Bitcoin Probability of Bitcoin Reaching $67,500 in July Rises to 70%; Spot ETFs See Net Inflows for 5 Consecutive Days
Svmuu News: Polymarket traders have raised the probability that Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July to 70%, up from approximately 56% earlier this week.The current market probability of Bitcoin reachin
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Analysis: The U.S. Treasury yield curve may invert
Svmuu News: The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to narrow further in the coming months, according to Capital Economics, which noted that escalating tensions in
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QCP Market: Oil Prices and Fed Expectations Weigh on Risk Assets; BTC Trades in a Narrow Range
Svmuu News: QCP Market reports that global market sentiment has shifted toward risk aversion due to the situation in the Middle East and expectations of a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve.Followi
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WEEX Labs: This Week, U.S. Stocks Will Focus on Q2 Earnings Reports and Fed Expectations; Macroeconomic Data Is Relatively Limited
Svmuu News: This week, the focus of the U.S. stock market will shift to the second-quarter earnings reports from tech giants such as Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel. At the same time, attention will be on
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The President of the Cleveland Fed Hints at the Need for Rate Hikes to Combat Inflation; Markets See a 65% Probability of a Rate Hike in September
Svmuu News: Hamack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, recently hinted that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to curb persistently high inflation. Currently, interest
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U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Rises to 54.4; Declining Inflation Expectations Offer Relief to the Federal Reserve
Svmuu News: Samuel Tombs of Pantheon noted that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 54.4 from 49.5 in June, exceeding economists’ expectations of 50.5 but remaining below last
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The cost of hedging against the U.S. dollar has fallen to its lowest level this year, as the market bets that risks to the reserve currency are limited in the short term
Svmuu News: As the market assesses a lower likelihood of a major shock to the U.S. dollar in the short term, the cost for investors to hedge against dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level th
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Fed’s Hamak: There Is No Conflict Between the Fed’s Dual Mandates
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve official Hammack stated that there is no conflict between the Fed’s dual mandates. Persistently high inflation is the greater cause for concern. The labor market is nearing
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Analysis: Expectations of interest rate hikes, combined with a shift in capital flows, have led tech giants to lead the decline in the broader U.S. stock market.
Svmuu News: On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with tech stocks falling across the board.the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen more than 20% from its all-time closin
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Spot gold has fallen back below $3,970 per ounce
Svmuu News: According to Gate data, spot gold has fallen back below $3,970 per ounce, down 0.16% on the day. Goldman Sachspreviously noted that, despite pressure from expectations of a hawkish Federal
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Goldman Sachs: Central Bank Buying Will Support Gold Prices
Svmuu News Goldman Sachs reports that, despite pressure from expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve, central bank buying is expected to provide support for gold prices.Demand remains strong; accord
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The Financial Supervisory Service of South Korea will monitor brokerage firms’ margin trading and securities lending and borrowing activities to prevent retail investors’ losses from escalating.
Svmuu News: The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) of South Korea has called on financial institutions to strengthen market stability and proactive risk management. Regarding the stock market, the FS
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Federal Reserve Vice Chair: If Inflation Doesn't Ease in the Short Term, We May Need to Reconsider Our Policy Stance
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson stated that if inflation does not cool down soon, interest rate hikes should be considered, but the current monetary policy is sound. In remarks prepar
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Federal Reserve's Schmid: Recent inflation data is encouraging, but it is still too early to draw conclusions
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve official Schmid stated that recent inflation data is encouraging, but it is still too early to draw conclusions. When formulating monetary policy, it is time to stop exclud
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Fed's Logan: Interest Rates Should Be Raised to Combat Inflation
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve official Logan stated that the Fed should raise interest rates to combat high inflation. June inflation data showed that price increases were slowing, but not enough to con
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Deutsche Bank: If the Fed Opts for Quantitative Tightening Rather Than Interest Rate Hikes, the Dollar Could Weaken
Svmuu News: Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravelos noted in a report that if the Federal Reserve shifts its policy focus from raising interest rates to reducing its balance sheet (i.e., quantitative t
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Arthur Hayes: AI Giant Equity Dilution May Weigh on Stock Prices, Short-Term Bearish for Bitcoin, While Central Bank Bailouts Hold Long-Term Promise
Arthur Hayes: AI Giant Equity Dilution May Weigh on Stock Prices, Short-Term Bearish for Bitcoin, While Central Bank Bailouts Hold Long-Term Promise
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Donald Trump's special committee hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has been postponed to December 14.
The special committee hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, initiated by Donald Trump, has been postponed to December 14, White House officials revealed on Wednesday. Donald Trump esta
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Nick Timiraos: A Democratic Senate would pose the strongest check on Donald Trump's reshaping of the Federal Reserve
Nick Timiraos: A Democratic Senate victory would serve as the most powerful check on Donald Trump's reshaping of the Federal Reserve. If any Federal Reserve Board of Governors vacancies arise in the f
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Lombard Odier Economists: A Democratic Senate Win Helps Reduce Uncertainty Around Fed Independence
According to Dow Jones Market Talk, Samy Chaar, Chief Economist at Lombard Odier, believes that a Democratic victory in the Senate would provide a check on Donald Trump's key institutional personnel n
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According to a Federal Reserve survey on November 2, banks tightened their lending standards for non-bank financial institutions, which could restrict financing for Bitcoin investors.
According to a lending survey released by the Federal Reserve on November 2, banks tightened their lending standards for non-bank financial institutions, while demand from commercial lenders and priva
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U.S. Treasuries fell due to strong U.S. job openings data and oil price volatility.
US job openings data exceeded economists' expectations, indicating a still robust labor market, which could give the Federal Reserve room to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Meanwhile, oil pric
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U.S. factory activity strengthened in October, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 59.0, which could complicate Bitcoin's hopes for interest rate cuts.
U.S. factory activity strengthened in October, with the ISM Production Index rising to 59.0, potentially complicating Bitcoin's hopes for rate cuts. A report released by the Institute for Supply Manag
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Bitcoin Trades Near $77,500 as US Midterm Voting Begins, Influenced by Binance Hack and Macro Factors
Bitcoin traded near $77,500 on Tuesday morning as polls opened for the U.S. midterm elections, down about 0.6% on the day. The price action is pressured by factors including a record $6.3 billion Bina
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Nick Timiraos reposts a 2000 news article: Tech bubble executives ignored rate hike risks, companies went bankrupt nine months later.
Nick Timiraos reposted an old news story from 2000, recalling the tale of Sy Picon during the dot-com bubble. In January 2000, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sy Picon, founder of Sy Picon, a di
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US Treasuries Rise, Yields Extend Slide as Oil Prices Tumble
US Treasuries rose, extending their biggest monthly advance in over two years, as tumbling oil prices eased concerns about inflation pressure potentially leading to additional Federal Reserve interest
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Citi FX traders see continued carry trade opportunities
Citigroup Inc.'s US currency desk expects the carry trade to keep offering opportunities for investors, even though the strategy may struggle to replicate a period of standout returns. Fuad Muvdi, hea
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh plans to reduce the number of interest rate votes to just six times per year starting in 2028, which economists say could delay relief for borrowers.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh announced plans to reduce the number of interest rate setting votes over the next two years. Specifically, in 2027, one of the Federal Reserve's eight meetings will not
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S&P 500 historically sees strong gains after midterm elections, averaging 13.7% one year later
A CNBC analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1980 through 2024 shows the index rose an average of 13.7% one year after midterm elections, with positive returns in 91% of cases. The S&P 500 was up after all
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OPEC+ maintained its oil production targets, which could exacerbate inflation concerns and limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing, posing a new macro test for Bitcoin.
OPEC+ decided on November 1 to maintain its oil production targets for December, despite ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East, a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and strength
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Fed study finds Treasury dealers' financing burden can outlast their bond holdings, potentially impacting crypto credit markets
A Federal Reserve staff research, published on October 30, indicates that Treasury dealers may continue to finance customer bonds even after their own auction inventory has largely cleared. This linge
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Industry Insiders: Hong Kong Family Offices Still Interested in Overseas Real Estate Investment
According to the South China Morning Post, industry professionals interviewed believe that Hong Kong family offices' interest in real estate investments in Europe, the US, and Japan may not wane even
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US banks are owed $349B by private credit funds, as PIK interest payments rise to 10% of loans
US-domiciled private credit vehicles owed banks $349 billion at the end of 2025, according to a Federal Reserve report published on October 16, 2026. The report highlights that private credit funds ca
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U.S. stocks fell, Intel's share price plummeted, and Federal Reserve officials hinted at supporting interest rate hikes.
U.S. stocks fell, with Intel's share price dropping sharply, as Federal Reserve officials hinted at support for interest rate hikes, and a tech stock sell-off boosted U.S. Treasuries. Additionally, Bi
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Dallas Fed President Logan supported this week's Federal Reserve decision but still believes two more rate hikes are needed.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan expressed support for the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates this week, but she continues to believe the Federal Reserve still needs to raise rates
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem Says More Rate Hikes Needed Soon to Bring Inflation to Target
St. Louis Fed President Musalem Says More Rate Hikes Needed Soon to Bring Inflation to Target
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem: It will be necessary to tighten monetary policy further "soon" to address high inflation and loose financial conditions.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday that he judges it necessary to tighten monetary policy further "soon." He noted that despite the Federal Reserve's decision this week to keep int
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem: Judged it necessary to further tighten monetary policy "soon," otherwise inflation could be too high unless the Federal Reserve raises rates further.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that he judges it necessary to "soon" further tighten monetary policy. He outlined two inflation scenarios, with the one he considers more likely being:
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Federal Reserve official Musalem called for prompt interest rate hikes to restore price stability, stating that inflation risks persist and financial conditions remain loose.
Federal Reserve official Alberto Musalem stated that given persistent and still upward-biased inflation risks, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates again "soon" to restore price stability
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Federal Reserve insider Nick Timiraos: US Q3 employer benefit costs rose by 3.9%, exceeding wage growth of 3.1%, due to a surge in health insurance costs.
Federal Reserve insider Nick Timiraos, citing Employment Cost Index (ECI) data, noted that U.S. employer benefit costs surged by 3.9% in the third quarter, surpassing the 3.1% growth in wages and sala
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The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee Sounds AI Inflation Alarm: Can the Crypto Market Hold the $75,000 Mark?
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee warned that excessive market expectations for AI productivity could lead to rising inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and potentially even triggering stagflation. This warning has garnered attention across global financial markets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility recently. After surpassing the $80,000 mark, the market is closely watching whether it can consistently hold the critical support level of $75,000 amidst macroeconomic headwinds.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
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From Event to Your Screen: The Four Hurdles a Financial News Alert Must Clear
By the time the news is seen, half the market move has already happened. The problem often lies not in judgment, but in the sequence of information arrival. A financial news flash, from event occurrence to reaching the reader, must pass through four checkpoints: source coverage, deduplication and compression, traceable origin, and multi-language synchronization. This article breaks down this chain and provides three questions for ordinary investors to filter out noise.
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What is FED Coin? An Analysis of the Cryptocurrency of the Same Name and the Concept of the Federal Reserve's Digital Currency
The term "FED coin" carries a dual meaning within the cryptocurrency space: it can refer to low-market-cap cryptocurrencies circulating on the market, such as "Federal Reserve (FED)" or "FEDCOIN," which have no official affiliation with the Federal Reserve System and exhibit extremely low trading volumes; alternatively, it may informally refer to the concept of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) that the Federal Reserve is currently researching and exploring. This article will elaborate on the background, current status, and related developments of these two types of "FED coins" separately.
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Bitcoin Breaks $80,000: Buying Emerges Amid Volatile Federal Reserve Policy Expectations, Who's Positioning?
Bitcoin's price recently surged from around $63,000 in mid-August, briefly breaking above $81,000 on August 26, setting a multi-month high. This rally comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy fluctuate; the CME tool still shows a high probability of maintaining current interest rates, but expectations for a rate hike within the year have increased. On-chain data indicates that large "whale" investors actively accumulated Bitcoin when it retested the $60,000 mark, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded strong net inflows, suggesting that institutional capital is a significant driver of this rebound.
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Bitcoin tops $80,000, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike pause grow, who is actively positioning?
As of August 25, 2026, Bitcoin's price surpassed $80,000, marking its best week since 2023. This strong rebound comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in September are rising, with the probability of a pause in rate hikes briefly reaching 70%. Amid changing macroeconomic conditions and fluctuating ETF capital flows, large Bitcoin holders (whales) and institutional investors have emerged as the primary buying force, actively buying the dips and demonstrating a strategic willingness to allocate to scarce assets.
Federal Reserve
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