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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. Spotify Requires Kalshi and Polymarket to Remove Brand Logos; Streaming Manipulation Incident Impacts Prediction Market Settlements; 2. South Korean Companies Question OUSD Alliance Membership List
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Weekly Profit of $1.5 Million; Bought Tickets for $330,000; Won During Regular Time in an Argentine Match
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “World Cup Round of 16: Argentina vs. Cape Verde,” an address that made a profit of $1.13 million over the past week
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A "smart money" investor bet $130,000 on Colombia to beat Ghana in the World Cup Round of 16.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Colombia vs. Ghana,” the account “hot2trot” (address: 0xb61b2079b95f6b7476fd3203e0274ff
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Spotify Requires Kalshi and Polymarket to Remove Their Brand Logos; Streaming Manipulation Incident Affects Prediction Market Settlements
Svmuu News: Spotify has asked prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding and clarify that there is no partnership between the two companies, after it was discovered that
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A "smart money" investor bet $290,000 on Argentina to defeat Cape Verde in the World Cup Round of 16
According to PPP prediction market monitoring data, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Argentina vs. Cape Verde,” the account shijiebeifacai, which has generated total pro
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G2 came back to win two straight games, forcing a decisive fifth game; predict.fun currently puts the probability of “TES defeating G2 at the League of Legends MSI” at 53%.
According to Svmuu Seer’s channel monitoring, in the “League of Legends MSI: G2 vs. TES (BO5)” match on predict.fun, the probability of TES defeating G2 rose to 92% at one point but has now dropped to
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Another Case of Prediction Market Manipulation: Over 500,000 Fake Plays Removed; Spotify Discovers That Manipulation of Malcolm Todd’s Song Plays Is Linked to Kalshi Bets
Svmuu News: Music streaming platform Spotify has removed over 500,000 fraudulent plays from musician Malcolm Todd’s song “Earrings.” The song had previously been propelled to the top of the charts. Sp
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No one is betting on a draw between Switzerland and Algeria, but the only large bet is from Top Idiot Qian, who predicts there won’t be a draw.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, there have been no large bets placed on a draw in regulation time for the Switzerland vs. Algeria match, which is set to kick off in half an hour, with
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Switzerland Aims to Break the Knockout Stage Curse; predict.fun Currently Puts the Probability of a Swiss Victory Over Algeria at 49%
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, in the “World Cup Round of 16: Switzerland vs. Algeria” prediction event on predict.fun, the probability of a Swiss victory is currently reported at
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$570,000 profit in one week; bet $340,000 on "Over 2.5 goals" in Portugal vs. Croatia
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket event “World Cup Round of 16: Portugal vs. Croatia” total goals prediction, an address that earned $570,000 in one week held a $360,0
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$310,000 profit in one week; purchased for $240,000; no wins in Austrian regular-season games
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “World Cup Round of 16: Spain vs. Austria,” an address that had earned $310,000 in one week purchased $240,000 worth
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Cristiano Ronaldo Reunites with Old Friend Modrić; predict.fun Currently Puts the Probability of “Portugal Beating Croatia” at 56%
According to monitoring data from the Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel, in the “World Cup Round of 16: Portugal vs. Croatia” prediction event on predict.fun, the probability of a Portugal victory is current
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A "smart money" bettor placed a $112,000 bet on Spain to win the World Cup Round of 16 match.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Spain vs. Austria,” smart money generated total profits of nearly $163,000 (Address: 0x
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With no goals conceded in the group stage, predict.fun currently puts the probability of “Spain defeating Austria” at 75%
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, in the “World Cup Round of 16: Spain vs. Austria” prediction event on predict.fun, the probability of a Spain victory is currently reported at 75%; t
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The probability on Polymarket that “GPT-5.6 will be released to the public on July 7” has risen to 64%, up 26% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP’s prediction market tracking, the probability on Polymarket that “GPT-5.6 will be released to the public on July 7” has risen to 64%, up 26% over the past 24 hours The rules state tha
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Kalshi's nominal trading volume exceeded $32.6 billion in June, setting another all-time high
Svmuu News: KalshiData posted on X that Kalshi’s nominal trading volume reached $32.6 billion in June, setting a new all-time high. This figure is nearly double the nominal trading volume of over $17
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Investigative Reporter: Polymarket’s Official Startup Narrative Is False; It Has Deep Ties to Peter Thiel and Israeli Interests
Svmuu News: Investigative journalist Whitney Webb has published a series of investigative articles on Polymarket’s origins and growth ambitions, casting doubt on the company’s official founding narrat
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Polymarket has published a new article titled “Tesla to Launch Robotaxi Service in California by December 31”
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, Polymarket has added a new prediction event: “Tesla will officially launch a driverless taxi (robotaxi) service in California by December 31, 2026.” If
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After losing over $3 million, a top contrarian trader bought $180,000 worth of Senegal shares, which failed to win during regular time.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “World Cup Round of 16: Belgium vs. Senegal,” the address 0x224a89db28ac7a407d9c634a6e4c426c428c242f purchased 180,0
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Newly established in 9 days with $620,000 in profits; "smart money" buys $280,000; Bosnia and Herzegovina takes the 1.5-goal handicap against the U.S.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket “World Cup Round of 16: USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina” handicap prediction event, the account hot2trot (address: 0xb61b2079b95f6b747
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World.xyz, a prediction market on the Solana blockchain, has launched
Svmuu News: World.xyz, a fully on-chain prediction market built on Solana, is now live on the Phantom wallet and its official website. The platform allows users to trade contracts on cryptocurrency pr
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A "smart money" bettor placed a $95,000 bet on T1 to defeat TL in the League of Legends MSI Play-Ins.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “MSI Qualifier T1 vs. TL,” with a predicted win probability of 65.5%, the “smart money” account retroactivesource (0
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Polymarket’s probability that “Claude Fable 5 will resume service for U.S. customers by July 1” has risen to 97%, up 71% in the last 24 hours.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, the probability on Polymarket that “Claude Fable 5 will resume service for U.S. customers by July 1” has risen to 97%, up 71% over the past 24 hours. D
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On predict.fun, the probability that “Mbappé will win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot” briefly surpassed Messi’s, currently standing at 42%, up 16% over the past 24 hours.
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, the probability of “Mbappé winning the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot” on predict.fun briefly rose to 50% this morning, briefly surpassing Messi; it curr
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Needham Says Crypto Rally Has Strong Momentum, Prediction Market Kalshi Expects Bitcoin to Reach $90,000 This Year
Needham stated that the cryptocurrency rebound is strong, believing that the large-scale sell-off has largely ended and investor attention is shifting towards digital assets. The prediction market Kal
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Yahoo Finance Review: Gemini exchange offers bank-grade security and regulation, but has higher trading fees and limited coin selection
Reviews indicate that the Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss brothers in 2014, operates as a New York trust company and is strictly regulated by state banking authorities, having reported no l
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Argus Downgrades DraftKings (DKNG) to Hold From Buy, Removes Price Target on Rising Costs, Tax Uncertainty
Argus noted that DraftKings' stock price has fallen by 43.22% over the past year, primarily due to high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes, and increased competition in prediction m
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
Under the planned tie-up, Gemini Titan will become the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. Gemini w
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Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Bans in Multiple US States Amid Legal Battles, While CFTC Defends Industry and Proposes New Rules
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is currently blocked for customers in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada, with Washington state authorities accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling bu
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Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin to end 2026 near current levels, around $75,000
Speculators on the prediction market platform estimate Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts. This forecast suggests a slight decline from
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Prediction Markets Increasingly Skeptical on Near-Term US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices the chances of a deal at 11% before March 1, 2027, 22% before January 1, 2028, and 35% before January 20, 2029.
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Research shows Bitcoin contracts on prediction market Kalshi increasingly lead Binance price discovery as BTC breaks $68,000
Research by financial forecasting firm Synth has found that the price movements of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi are increasingly predictive of subsequent Bitcoin price changes on Binance. Sin
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Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi Prediction Market Trading to Its ~3,000 Institutional Clients
The investment bank will help its institutional clients execute block event contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange. This move aims to increase institutional participation in prediction market
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
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Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin Attorney General in anticipation of state lawsuit over sports contracts
Prediction market platform Novig has filed a lawsuit against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett. The move is preemptive, as Novig anticipates Wisconsin wi
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Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting with cryptocurrency CEOs at the White House this Wednesday, sources say
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House this Wednesday that will bring together CEOs of cryptocurrency, prediction market, and artificial intelligence companies,
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Hyperliquid ETFs See Inflow Reversal Amidst Rising Perpetual Futures Competition
Funds including Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG), Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), and 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) initially performed well, with HYPG nearing $113 million in AUM and the la
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Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
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Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
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Gemini shares slide after reporting $108 million loss; Winklevoss says 'we still have work to do'
The crypto exchange's prediction market volume nearly doubled as it continued expanding beyond traditional crypto trading.
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Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
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US CFTC to hold meeting on Aug. 20 to explore crypto, AI, and prediction market regulations with SEC, without waiting for CLARITY bill
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a meeting for its Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20 to address regulation related to crypto assets, artificial intelligence and pred
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US CFTC cautions prediction market platforms over "deficient" incentive program filings, citing manipulation risks
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance, expressing concern over an increase in "procedurally or substantively deficient" filings from prediction market firms for ince
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Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
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SKALE Labs launches Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired paper-trading sandbox for training AI agents
SKALE Labs launched Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired, paper-trading prediction market sandbox on its zero-gas blockchain, allowing builders to train AI agents before taking them live on Polymarket.
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New York City Council Launches Investigation into Prediction Market Platforms, Including Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini Titan
The New York City Council has sent letters to Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini Titan, investigating these platforms for alleged use of "false, deceptive, or abusive marketing strategies" targe
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
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