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Forecasting the market
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Title contenders continue their run; predict.fun currently puts the probability of “France defeating Morocco” at 63%
According to PPP prediction market tools, in the “World Cup Quarterfinals: France vs. Morocco” prediction event on predict.fun, the probability of a France victory is currently reported at 63%; the pr
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Svmuu Noon News
1. The U.S. military launched strikes against approximately 90 military targets in Iran; 2. Pantera Capital: Hyperliquid’s potential market size reaches $10 trillion in daily trading volume, with regu
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A "smart money" investor bought approximately $370,000 worth of bets on France to defeat Morocco in the World Cup quarterfinals.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: France vs. Morocco,” a “smart money” account that generated over $870,000 in profits
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In the race for a spot in the finals, predict.fun currently puts the probability of “HLE defeating BLG in the League of Legends MSI” at 63%.
According to PPP’s prediction market tracking, the probability of HLE defeating BLG in the “League of Legends MSI Winners’ Bracket Final: HLE vs. BLG” prediction event on predict.fun is currently repo
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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. He Yi: If you trust CZ or me, you can simply buy BNB—no need to look for clues or make donations; 2. BNB Chain plans to launch a new Layer 1 blockchain, with the mainnet expected to go live in 2027
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Prediction market World.xyz announced it will migrate from SOL to Robinhood Chain
Svmuu News: The decentralized prediction market World.xyz announced on X that, following deliberations by the team over the past 24 hours, it has decided to migrate from Solana to Robinhood Chain. The
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Polymarket: The probability that “WTI crude oil will rise to $80 in July 2026” stands at 47%; the price has risen 28% over the past 24 hours
According to PPP prediction market tools, the probability that “WTI crude oil will rise to $80 in July 2026” on Polymarket has reached 47%, up 28% in the past 24 hours. Donald TrumpToday, it was repor
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Google Update to Chrome Web Store Policies: Prohibition of Prediction Market Extensions
Svmuu News Google The Chrome Web Store Developer Policy has been updated to explicitly list prediction markets as prohibited products. Under the new policy, any Chrome extension that facilitates or su
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Some idiot bet $101,000 on the World Cup quarterfinals, but France couldn't beat Morocco
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: France vs. Morocco,” a “dumb money” account that lost over $6.1 million (address: 0x224
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Suspected insider account uses 30x leverage to short Nasdaq Composite 100 contracts worth approximately $17.3 million, with an unrealized profit of about $160,000
Svmuu News: According to on-chain data monitoring, approximately one hour before the Middle East-related statement at Donald Trump, the address beginning with 0xec4 significantly increased its positio
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A "smart money" investor bet approximately $150,000 on France to defeat Morocco in the World Cup quarterfinals.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: France vs. Morocco,” a “smart money” account with a win rate exceeding 75% (Address:
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Down 2-0, but coming back to win 3-2? predict.fun currently puts the probability of “T1 defeating G2 in the League of Legends MSI Knockout Stage” at 48%.
According to PPP’s prediction market tracking, the probability of T1 defeating G2 in the “League of Legends MSI Knockout Stage: T1 vs. G2” prediction event on predict.fun is currently reported at 48%.
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OKX World Cup Prediction Contest Adds a Separate Prize Pool for the Quarterfinals, with a Total Value of Approximately 225,000 U
Svmuu News: According to official reports, as the 2026 World Cup enters the quarterfinal stage, the OKX World Cup Prediction Contest will add five new standalone prize pools, covering predictions for
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A single bet netted $106,900; a certain account correctly predicted a 3–2 score in the Argentina vs. Egypt match
Svmuu News: On-chain analyst Ai posted on X that the account 0xec4…6c92b correctly predicted a 3-2 score in this morning’s Argentina vs. Egypt knockout match, turning a $2,329.9 investment into a prof
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predictfun Officially Launches Institutional-Grade Block Trading Functionality
Svmuu News: According to official reports, predict.fun, a prediction market platform within the BNB ecosystem, has announced the launch of institutional-grade bulk trading functionality. This feature
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Weekly Profit of $2.4 Million; $710,000 Spent on Addresses; Egypt Fails to Win in Regular Time
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup prediction event for the Argentina vs. Egypt match, the address “swisstony”—which had earned $2.4 million over the past 7 d
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$2 million profit in one week; $1.27 million spent on bets; total goals in Argentina vs. Egypt under 2.5
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket event predicting the total goals in the Argentina vs. Egypt match, the address “Sparkling8899”—which had earned $2 million over the p
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Sui has launched the WaterX_app Predict Festival, which will run for one month
Svmuu News: Sui announced on Platform X that the WaterX_app Predict Festival is now live. The festival will feature a month-long prediction event on Sui, including daily predictions, treasure chest re
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A "smart money" investor bet $101,000 on Argentina to defeat Egypt in the World Cup Round of 16.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Argentina vs. Egypt,” a “smart money” account that has generated $271,000 in profits (a
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Polymarket traders went from a profit of $5.6 million to a loss of $103,000 in 13 days
Svmuu News: According to Onchain Lens, Polymarket trader 1two1two (0x722...59A) went from a profit of $5.6 million to a loss of $103,000 in 13 days. The account was created in June 2026, with a win ra
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With a 36% win rate, Colombia purchased $360,000 worth of tickets but was unable to defeat Switzerland
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “World Cup Round of 16: Switzerland vs. Colombia,” the address 0x9d5d726b75be95f1b32c69e0bf5b71bfa63fe218—which had
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Not much of a surprise? predict.fun currently puts the probability of “Argentina defeating Egypt” at 73%
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Prophecy Channel, in the “World Cup Round of 16: Argentina vs. Egypt” prediction event on predict.fun, Argentina’s probability of winning is currently reporte
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On predict.fun, the probability of “Mbappé winning the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot” has surpassed Messi’s, while Haaland has risen to third place
According to Svmuu Seer’s monitoring, the probability of “Mbappé winning the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot” on predict.fun has risen to 48%, surpassing Messi, with a weekly increase of 22%; the probabili
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On Polymarket, the probability that Tesla and SpaceX will announce a merger by the end of September has dropped to 10%, with the figure falling 30% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, data from the “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?” prediction event on Polymarket shows that the probability of Tesla and SpaceX officia
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Argus Downgrades DraftKings (DKNG) to Hold From Buy, Removes Price Target on Rising Costs, Tax Uncertainty
Argus noted that DraftKings' stock price has fallen by 43.22% over the past year, primarily due to high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes, and increased competition in prediction m
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
Under the planned tie-up, Gemini Titan will become the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. Gemini w
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Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Bans in Multiple US States Amid Legal Battles, While CFTC Defends Industry and Proposes New Rules
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is currently blocked for customers in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada, with Washington state authorities accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling bu
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Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin to end 2026 near current levels, around $75,000
Speculators on the prediction market platform estimate Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts. This forecast suggests a slight decline from
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Prediction Markets Increasingly Skeptical on Near-Term US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices the chances of a deal at 11% before March 1, 2027, 22% before January 1, 2028, and 35% before January 20, 2029.
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Research shows Bitcoin contracts on prediction market Kalshi increasingly lead Binance price discovery as BTC breaks $68,000
Research by financial forecasting firm Synth has found that the price movements of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi are increasingly predictive of subsequent Bitcoin price changes on Binance. Sin
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Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi Prediction Market Trading to Its ~3,000 Institutional Clients
The investment bank will help its institutional clients execute block event contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange. This move aims to increase institutional participation in prediction market
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
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Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin Attorney General in anticipation of state lawsuit over sports contracts
Prediction market platform Novig has filed a lawsuit against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett. The move is preemptive, as Novig anticipates Wisconsin wi
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Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting with cryptocurrency CEOs at the White House this Wednesday, sources say
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House this Wednesday that will bring together CEOs of cryptocurrency, prediction market, and artificial intelligence companies,
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Hyperliquid ETFs See Inflow Reversal Amidst Rising Perpetual Futures Competition
Funds including Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG), Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), and 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) initially performed well, with HYPG nearing $113 million in AUM and the la
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Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
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Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
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Gemini shares slide after reporting $108 million loss; Winklevoss says 'we still have work to do'
The crypto exchange's prediction market volume nearly doubled as it continued expanding beyond traditional crypto trading.
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Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
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US CFTC to hold meeting on Aug. 20 to explore crypto, AI, and prediction market regulations with SEC, without waiting for CLARITY bill
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a meeting for its Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20 to address regulation related to crypto assets, artificial intelligence and pred
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US CFTC cautions prediction market platforms over "deficient" incentive program filings, citing manipulation risks
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance, expressing concern over an increase in "procedurally or substantively deficient" filings from prediction market firms for ince
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Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
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SKALE Labs launches Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired paper-trading sandbox for training AI agents
SKALE Labs launched Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired, paper-trading prediction market sandbox on its zero-gas blockchain, allowing builders to train AI agents before taking them live on Polymarket.
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New York City Council Launches Investigation into Prediction Market Platforms, Including Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini Titan
The New York City Council has sent letters to Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini Titan, investigating these platforms for alleged use of "false, deceptive, or abusive marketing strategies" targe
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Kalshi becomes the first prediction market to stream full order books via DoubleZero Edge.
Prediction market platform Kalshi announced that it has become the first prediction market to distribute real-time, full order book data through its DoubleZero Edge service. This move will allow insti
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FlightAware drops lawsuit against Kalshi one day after filing
The flight tracker previously claimed that Kalshi improperly used its data and trademark to run prediction markets on flight cancellations.
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
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