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Inflation
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Gold futures prices held steady above $4400 ahead of the CPI report, trading at $4470.40 at 7:35 AM ET.
Gold December Futures (GC=F) opened at $4430 on Wednesday, down 0.2% from Tuesday's close. Influenced by last week's weaker-than-expected jobs report and market expectations for today's July CPI repor
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Wall Street firms forecast U.S. headline CPI between 3.30% and 3.40% ahead of today's release, with a deviation potentially triggering sharp market reactions.
Wall Street firms forecast U.S. headline CPI between 3.30% and 3.40% ahead of today's release, with a deviation potentially triggering sharp market reactions.
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Dollar ticks up 0.05% to 99.85, underpinned by renewed Iran tensions and focus on upcoming US inflation data
The US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.85, supported by escalating tensions in the Gulf region and market anticipation of crucial US economic data, particularly inflation figures. Oil prices edged highe
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US CPI inflation data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, may further reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, following weak July jobs reports.
The odds of a September tightening currently stand just below 50%. However, technology goods, including those from Apple, could lead to a firmer-than-expected inflation reading due to recent price hik
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CNBC: AI's expensive build-out and slow corporate adoption are causing short-term inflationary pressures, rather than the previously predicted deflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation efforts.
Tech leaders like Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have predicted that AI will bring about deflationary effects. However, the current rollout of AI in the economy is encountering corporate inertia,
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China's Commodity Markets Defy Economic Rules, Complicating Beijing's Inflation Fight
Chinese producers are surviving on lower prices, which is complicating the government's efforts to combat weak inflation.
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Citi's Hollenhorst Sees Trend Toward Cooling Inflation
Citi's Hollenhorst Sees Trend Toward Cooling Inflation
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India's July retail inflation accelerated to 4.45% due to higher food prices, up from 4.38% a month ago, a pace unlikely to alter the Reserve Bank of India's rate outlook.
The July inflation figure was largely in line with economists' expectations and marked the second consecutive month that inflation breached the RBI's 4% medium-term target. Food inflation climbed to 5
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India's July inflation remained within the Reserve Bank's 2%-6% target range, cementing expectations for a prolonged pause in interest rate hikes.
India's July inflation remained within the Reserve Bank's 2%-6% target range, cementing expectations for a prolonged pause in interest rate hikes.
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Cleveland Fed President Hammack warns one rate hike likely insufficient to curb inflation, citing wage erosion
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack stated in an interview that a single 25 basis point rate hike would likely not be enough to combat the current inflation, though she did not sp
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Pimco Sees Fed on Hold in 2026 as Inflation Moderates
Pimco Sees Fed on Hold in 2026 as Inflation Moderates
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U.S. stock index futures rise, oil prices climb on U.S.-Iran standoff; Donald Trump says U.S. controls Strait of Hormuz, threatens Iran
U.S. stock index futures rose ahead of a key U.S. inflation report for July. Meanwhile, oil prices rose due to the ongoing standoff between the U.S. and Iran. Former U.S. President Donald Trump said l
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Japan's long-term interest rates are projected to rise significantly in fiscal year 2025, reaching 2.35-2.40% by the end of March 2026, the highest level since February 1999.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s market operations report for fiscal year 2025, released today, indicates a significant rise in long-term interest rates for FY2025, reaching a range of 2.35-2.40% by the end
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Treasury Yields and Dollar Remain Stable Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data, as Investors Await Clues on Fed's Rate Hike Path.
Treasury Yields and Dollar Remain Stable Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data, as Investors Await Clues on Fed's Rate Hike Path.
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Boston Fed President Susan Collins says poorer Americans are struggling to make ends meet, and she would back a September interest rate rise if inflation remains hot.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins says poorer Americans are struggling to make ends meet, and she would back a September interest rate rise if inflation remains hot.
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Deutsche Bank strategists warn: The market is pricing in a "non-existent perfect combination," simultaneously betting on strong growth, limited rate hikes, and controllable oil prices, leaving almost no room for error regarding policy, inflation, and geopolitical situations.
In his latest report, Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen points out that the current market is simultaneously betting on strong economic growth, limited interest rate hikes by the Federal Rese
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Yen Traders Boost Options Activity Ahead of US Inflation Data Amid Directional Uncertainty
Yen traders are ramping up options market activity ahead of key US inflation data, turning to derivatives for flexibility amid a lack of consensus on the currency’s direction.
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Bitcoin remains stuck in $62,000-$66,000 range as ETF inflows offset selling, with Wednesday's U.S. inflation report seen as next potential catalyst
Bitcoin has extended a five-week standstill, with steady demand from exchange-traded funds being offset by selling from miners and corporate holders. Trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels
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U.S. stocks slid (Dow -0.34%, S&P 500 -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.6%) as Strait of Hormuz negotiations remain deadlocked, driving oil prices higher ahead of inflation data.
U.S. stocks slid (Dow -0.34%, S&P 500 -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.6%) as Strait of Hormuz negotiations remain deadlocked, driving oil prices higher ahead of inflation data.
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JPMorgan Chase Asset Management: The Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising interest rates until inflation cools, as core PCE remains above 3%
Kelsey Berro, a fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Chase Asset Management, stated that despite recent signals of slowing inflation and market expectations of only a modest 0.2% month-over-mont
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Markets anticipate a modest increase in the U.S. July CPI month-over-month, with core CPI month-over-month projected at 0.2%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. The market generally expects the July overall CPI to increase by only 0.1% month-over-month, w
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FOMC members will be highly focused on Wednesday's July month-over-month inflation change to assess the feasibility of achieving the 2% inflation target without further policy tightening; the new Federal Reserve Chair has previously expressed disinterest in such high-frequency data-driven frameworks.
X platform commentator Nick Timiraos noted that more Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have indicated they will closely monitor the next few price level readings to determin
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Fed's Goolsbee: Biggest Problem Facing the Economy Is Inflation
Fed's Goolsbee: Biggest Problem Facing the Economy Is Inflation
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The Motley Fool Analyst Predicts Gold Will Rebound to Over $5,000 Per Ounce Before Year-End
Analyst David Jagielski believes gold will return to its record highs, citing concerns about the stock market, potential interest rate hikes by the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, ongoing U.S.-Iran deal ch
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Record diesel prices are exposing pain points in the stock market and economy
Record diesel prices are exposing pain points in the stock market and economy, with a major risk being that high diesel prices will continue to put upward pressure on inflation.
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Iran's car market prices surge 40-130% since February, with officials calling it a 'mafia system', highlighting cost-of-living crisis
Domestic car prices in Iran have mostly risen 40% to 80% since the start of the war in February, with some vehicles selling for over 130% of their September 2025 costs. This makes even locally made ca
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MarketWatch analysis: Warsh's Fed aims to tame inflation to 2% by 2029 with slightly higher rates, and Wall Street now believes it
MarketWatch analysis indicates that after more than five years of previous attempts, Federal Reserve leaders believe they can reduce the inflation rate to 2% by 2029 with only slightly higher U.S. int
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Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs analyzed that despite strong economic performance, low consumer confidence may be attributed to a general "decline in well-being" across society.
Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs informed clients that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a historic low this year, dropping 13% year-over-year in September, with an almo
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US stocks were mixed, as inflation concerns and Middle East conflicts offset AI optimism.
US stocks were mixed, as inflation concerns and Middle East conflicts offset AI optimism.
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Polls show: US voters' opposition to war with Iran hits record high, 71% believe the Trump administration lacks a clear strategy
A Fox News poll released Thursday shows that 71% of American voters believe the Trump administration "lacks a clear strategy" to end the conflict with Iran, which has led to rising inflation and soari
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WuBlockchain: CoinShares Says Bitcoin Unlikely to Break $80K Without Inflation Improvement or Fed Shift
CoinShares stated that Bitcoin faces two major near-term headwinds: a more hawkish Federal Reserve and a setback to the CLARITY Act. The firm believes a decisive break above $80,000 is unlikely before
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Al Jazeera: Middle East conflict causes living costs to soar for 2 billion people in South Asia, disrupts energy supplies in multiple countries.
Al Jazeera reports that the escalating conflict in the Middle East is causing a worsening cost-of-living crisis for a quarter of the world's population, approximately 2 billion people in South Asia. C
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Soaring US Treasury yields offer a "silver lining," with some investors seeing a buying opportunity at 5% yields.
As the world's largest bond market remains under pressure, some investors see an attractive reason to buy U.S. Treasuries: yield. Driven by high inflation, ballooning budget deficits, and a surge in c
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The ECB's August Consumer Expectations Survey showed that inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 3.0%, with three-year and five-year inflation expectations also revised upwards.
A survey showed that consumers' inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose from 2.9% in July to 3.0%, three-year inflation expectations increased from 2.7% to 2.9%, and five-year inflation exp
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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Does not rule out the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike or consecutive rate hikes.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated at a press conference on Friday that there are no specific ideas regarding the pace of interest rate hikes, and policy will be decided after thorough dis
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Gasoline prices in Yemen's Houthi-controlled areas have increased by 10% for the first time in four years, sparking inflation concerns.
Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen announced on Monday a gasoline price hike of approximately 10%, from 4,750 Yemeni rials (approximately $8.90) to 5,250 Yemeni rials (approximately $9.80) per liter. Th
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ECB's Vujčić: Energy prices, now well above baseline, are driving market expectations for inflation and rate path; expects food inflation to peak at 3.4% in Q3 2027
European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujčić stated in an interview with Reuters that energy prices have continued to increase and are now well above the baseline of the ECB's latest pr
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German PPI MoM 1.1%, expected 0.4%, prior 1.1%, above expectations
PPI MoM: 1.1%, Est. 0.4%, Prev. 1.1%, Above Expectations Release Time: 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC
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German PPI YoY 4.6%, expected 4.1%, previous 3%, above expectations
PPI YoY: 4.6%, expected 4.1%, prior 3%, above expectations Release Time: 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC
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Economist Mihir Torsekar warns economic squeeze from higher borrowing costs and weaker purchasing power could sway US midterm elections
Senior economist Mihir Torsekar told Al Jazeera’s ‘This is America’ that Americans on the lower end of the economy are feeling the impact of higher borrowing costs and weaker purchasing power, which c
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised interest rates to 1.25%, a 31-year high, to combat persistent inflation.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday raised its policy interest rate from 1% to 1.25% with a 7-2 vote, reaching its highest level in 31 years. This move aims to counter persistent inflationary pressures
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Japan's central bank raises interest rate to 1.25%, a 31-year high, amid rising inflation
The Bank of Japan hiked its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points from 1% to 1.25% on Friday, marking the first increase since June and pushing borrowing costs to their highest level in 31
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Yen falls to 156.30 per dollar as softer August inflation dents BOJ aggressive tightening bets
The yen eased from 155.68-70 late Thursday, hours before the Bank of Japan's policy decision, after lower-than-expected consumer inflation in August dented expectations of aggressive tightening.
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RBA Governor Bullock: Australian Businesses Starting to Question if Inflation Will Return Below 3%
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock told a parliamentary panel on Friday that Australian businesses are starting to "bubble up" a view that elevated inflation is not coming back down be
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South Korean stocks opened up 2.24% on Friday, boosted by falling oil prices and easing inflation concerns following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) opened up 150.53 points, or 2.24%, at 6,865.94 points on Friday (9:15 AM KST). This followed an overnight rally on Wall Street, as falling oil prices and
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South Korea extends fuel tax cuts for two months until November to ease price pressures.
South Korea's Ministry of Finance announced on Friday that it would extend fuel tax cuts for another two months until November to ease price pressures stemming from ongoing tensions in the Middle East
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RBA Governor Bullock says board must decide if current rate is sufficient to cool prices
Australia’s central bank board needs to decide later this month whether its benchmark interest rate is at a level sufficient to restrain price pressures and return inflation to target, Governor Michel
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Japan's August inflation rate was 1.9% year-on-year, below expectations of 2.1% and matching the previous reading of 1.9%.
Japan's August inflation rate was 1.9% year-on-year, below expectations of 2.1% and matching the previous reading of 1.9%.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
Inflation
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Nick Timiraos reposted VKMacro's tweet: Japanese officials say failure to raise interest rates as demanded by the U.S. could escalate into a diplomatic issue.
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Global oil shipping costs have surged to historic highs, with supertankers earning over $1.2 million per day. A South Korean shipping magnate is making a massive bet, investing $7 billion, and is set to profit handsomely.
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