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Inflation
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JPMorgan's Kelly Sees US Disinflation Trend from Lower Tariffs and Strait of Hormuz Oil Flow, Says Fed is on Wrong Track Signaling Less Communication
David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that he anticipates a disinflation trend in the United States. He attributes this to decreasing tariff costs and the eventual
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Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos reports July CPI core goods prices rose 0.20%, largest MoM increase since Sept 2025; shelter up 0.14%, core services ex-shelter up 0.19%.
Nick Timiraos, known for his insights into the Federal Reserve, highlighted key components of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Core goods prices increased by 0.20% month-over-month, marking t
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Baird's Ross Mayfield Says Softer Core Inflation and Limited Wage Pressure Make September Fed Hike Unlikely
Baird's Ross Mayfield Says Softer Core Inflation and Limited Wage Pressure Make September Fed Hike Unlikely
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Analysis suggests rising energy costs, with US gasoline averaging $4.03/gallon (up from $3.87 a month ago), could reignite August inflation after July's cooling.
Analysis suggests rising energy costs, with US gasoline averaging $4.03/gallon (up from $3.87 a month ago), could reignite August inflation after July's cooling. Falling energy prices, including a 2.9
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US Core CPI rose 0.22% in July, bringing the 12-month change down to 2.5%.
US Core CPI rose 0.22% in July, bringing the 12-month change down to 2.5%.
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Goldman Sachs strategists expect the Federal Reserve to "stand pat" in 2026, contrary to market expectations of interest rate hikes
Matheus Dibo, Goldman Sachs' head of investment strategy for EMEA, stated on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday that while the market is currently still pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike in Septemb
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Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Rise, Market Focuses on Upcoming CPI Report
At 8:00 AM ET on August 12, Bitcoin's price rose to $64,194, and Ethereum's price increased to $1,915.50. Cryptocurrency prices found support after recent employment reports fell short of expectations
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Silver prices break $66, reaching a new high since June, amidst market expectations of slowing July inflation.
Silver September futures reached $66.49 per ounce at 7:45 AM ET on Wednesday, after opening at $64.87 per ounce, down 0.1% from Tuesday's closing price. This increase occurred ahead of the release of
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Gold futures prices held steady above $4400 ahead of the CPI report, trading at $4470.40 at 7:35 AM ET.
Gold December Futures (GC=F) opened at $4430 on Wednesday, down 0.2% from Tuesday's close. Influenced by last week's weaker-than-expected jobs report and market expectations for today's July CPI repor
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Wall Street firms forecast U.S. headline CPI between 3.30% and 3.40% ahead of today's release, with a deviation potentially triggering sharp market reactions.
Wall Street firms forecast U.S. headline CPI between 3.30% and 3.40% ahead of today's release, with a deviation potentially triggering sharp market reactions.
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Dollar ticks up 0.05% to 99.85, underpinned by renewed Iran tensions and focus on upcoming US inflation data
The US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.85, supported by escalating tensions in the Gulf region and market anticipation of crucial US economic data, particularly inflation figures. Oil prices edged highe
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US CPI inflation data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, may further reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, following weak July jobs reports.
The odds of a September tightening currently stand just below 50%. However, technology goods, including those from Apple, could lead to a firmer-than-expected inflation reading due to recent price hik
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CNBC: AI's expensive build-out and slow corporate adoption are causing short-term inflationary pressures, rather than the previously predicted deflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation efforts.
Tech leaders like Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have predicted that AI will bring about deflationary effects. However, the current rollout of AI in the economy is encountering corporate inertia,
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China's Commodity Markets Defy Economic Rules, Complicating Beijing's Inflation Fight
Chinese producers are surviving on lower prices, which is complicating the government's efforts to combat weak inflation.
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Citi's Hollenhorst Sees Trend Toward Cooling Inflation
Citi's Hollenhorst Sees Trend Toward Cooling Inflation
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India's July retail inflation accelerated to 4.45% due to higher food prices, up from 4.38% a month ago, a pace unlikely to alter the Reserve Bank of India's rate outlook.
The July inflation figure was largely in line with economists' expectations and marked the second consecutive month that inflation breached the RBI's 4% medium-term target. Food inflation climbed to 5
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India's July inflation remained within the Reserve Bank's 2%-6% target range, cementing expectations for a prolonged pause in interest rate hikes.
India's July inflation remained within the Reserve Bank's 2%-6% target range, cementing expectations for a prolonged pause in interest rate hikes.
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Cleveland Fed President Hammack warns one rate hike likely insufficient to curb inflation, citing wage erosion
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack stated in an interview that a single 25 basis point rate hike would likely not be enough to combat the current inflation, though she did not sp
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Pimco Sees Fed on Hold in 2026 as Inflation Moderates
Pimco Sees Fed on Hold in 2026 as Inflation Moderates
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U.S. stock index futures rise, oil prices climb on U.S.-Iran standoff; Donald Trump says U.S. controls Strait of Hormuz, threatens Iran
U.S. stock index futures rose ahead of a key U.S. inflation report for July. Meanwhile, oil prices rose due to the ongoing standoff between the U.S. and Iran. Former U.S. President Donald Trump said l
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Japan's long-term interest rates are projected to rise significantly in fiscal year 2025, reaching 2.35-2.40% by the end of March 2026, the highest level since February 1999.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s market operations report for fiscal year 2025, released today, indicates a significant rise in long-term interest rates for FY2025, reaching a range of 2.35-2.40% by the end
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Treasury Yields and Dollar Remain Stable Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data, as Investors Await Clues on Fed's Rate Hike Path.
Treasury Yields and Dollar Remain Stable Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data, as Investors Await Clues on Fed's Rate Hike Path.
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Boston Fed President Susan Collins says poorer Americans are struggling to make ends meet, and she would back a September interest rate rise if inflation remains hot.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins says poorer Americans are struggling to make ends meet, and she would back a September interest rate rise if inflation remains hot.
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Deutsche Bank strategists warn: The market is pricing in a "non-existent perfect combination," simultaneously betting on strong growth, limited rate hikes, and controllable oil prices, leaving almost no room for error regarding policy, inflation, and geopolitical situations.
In his latest report, Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen points out that the current market is simultaneously betting on strong economic growth, limited interest rate hikes by the Federal Rese
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Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.055%, the highest since August 1996.
Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose 8 basis points to 3.055% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since August 1996. This followed a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, driven by a rebound in oil
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Asian Stocks, Bonds Set to Decline Thursday on Inflation Jitters
The decline tracks Wall Street losses as an oil rally and stronger-than-expected US economic data fueled inflation concerns and bets on further interest-rate hikes. The yen, near a three-week low, wil
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US Treasury yields soar, with 10-year note hitting 5.125% and 2-year note topping 4.9%, threatening higher borrowing costs for consumers
Government debt costs leaped higher on Wednesday, driven by factors including a report showing increased inflation pressures, surging expectations for an October Fed rate hike, and weak demand at a 5-
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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ECB's Lane: Eurozone HICP inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In a speech in Geneva, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, unveiled the ECB's September macroeconomic projections, forecasting HICP inflation for the Eurozone a
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McDonald's CEO expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist in restaurant industry
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated on Wednesday that the company does not anticipate a change in these conditions, viewing them as the new operating environment. He noted that in the most recent
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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U.S. September PMI data surged to a five-year high, with input costs reaching their highest since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns.
U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0, the Services PMI to 58.7, and the Composite PMI to 58.4. All figures substantially
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Germany's largest trade union, IG Metall, is seeking a 5% wage increase for 3.7 million workers, putting new pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
Germany's IG Metall union will launch a new round of wage negotiations in October, demanding a 5% pay raise for approximately 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical components industries to c
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Eastmoney Securities Research Institute Report: The world has not yet entered a phase of full tightening, and there is room to increase allocation to US Treasury bonds.
Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The re
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Analysts conclude their longest upgrade cycle in five years, holding a net negative view on U.S. corporate earnings prospects for the first time.
For the first time in months, equity analysts have turned net negative on the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reflecting concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on company
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Hong Kong's August overall consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY, underlying inflation 1.9%
Hong Kong's overall consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year in August, matching July's figure. The underlying inflation rate, which excludes one-off government relief measures, also remained unchang
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks warns: Out-of-control US fiscal discipline is the fundamental reason for rising interest rates, with the current deficit at about 6% of GDP.
Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks stated in his latest memo on Tuesday that the uncontrolled fiscal discipline in the U.S. is the fundamental reason for rising long-term interest rates, and that
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Singapore Core Inflation Rises Third Month to 2.2% in August, Highest Since 2024
Singapore's core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in August, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest
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Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day.
Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day, with the cost of filling up a tank increasing by 40% since the beginning of the year.
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ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
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Citigroup Survey: Inflation Overtakes Tariffs as Family Offices' Top Concern, Wealthy Flock to Gold and US Equities
Inflation has supplanted trade wars and tariffs as the top risk concern for ultra-high-net-worth individuals this year, with interest rate changes and global financial system stability closely followi
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Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
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Fed’s Collins Says Last Week’s Rate Hike Will Help Return Inflation to Goal
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she supported last week’s decision to raise interest rates, which she said would help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
Inflation
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