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Inflation
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OPEC+ has paused its production increase, but its control over oil prices is weakening due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and member withdrawals. Diesel prices have hit a new all-time high.
OPEC+ held a virtual meeting on Sunday, September 6, deciding to keep oil production targets for October at the same level as September, ending six consecutive months of increases. However, analysis i
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Yahoo Finance analysis suggests investors should 'stay the course' as S&P 500 sets record highs, citing historical average 12.7% gain in year after new peaks
The analysis notes that despite headwinds such as the war in Iran, high Treasury yields, and inflation, the S&P 500 continues to climb. Historical data, going back to 1950, shows an average gain of 12
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Japanese media: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% next week, and is considering accelerating the pace of rate hikes to "once per quarter."
According to Kyodo News and Reuters, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) plans to raise its policy interest rate by 25 basis points from approximately 1.0% to around 1.25% at its monetary policy meeting on Septem
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U.S. Social Security COLA Projected to Rise 3.6% in 2027, Largest Increase in Three Years
The Senior Citizens League estimates that the US Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2027 is projected to increase by 3.6%, which would be the largest annual adjustment since 2023. If
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Brent crude oil approaches $100/barrel, sparking inflation concerns and dragging down global equities, after Saudi Arabia suspended some energy operations due to attacks.
Brent crude oil prices are nearing $100 per barrel, intensifying inflation concerns and leading to volatility in US stock futures and a decline in global equities. This follows Saudi Arabia's suspensi
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Silver prices opened at $66.82 per ounce on Tuesday, up 0.1% from Friday, due to the ongoing conflict in Iran and escalating inflation concerns.
Silver (SI=F) December futures opened at $66.82 per ounce on Tuesday (September 8), up 0.1% from Friday's close. As of 8:08 AM ET, silver prices remained at $66.53. The ongoing conflict between the US
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Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities face a double threat this week: US inflation data and the risk of a Japanese yen carry trade unwinding.
Investors are closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due out on Friday, which will be released ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. Federal Reserve Chairman W
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Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4435 on Tuesday, with a weaker dollar being the key driver; oil prices approached $100, and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week rose to 60%.
Spot gold rose as much as 0.7% to $4,435 per ounce in Asian trading on Tuesday, with analysts attributing its counter-trend rally to a weaker dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% on Tuesd
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Commodities guru Jeff Currie: U.S. Treasury's "financial repression" is leading markets back to a "hard asset" era, $10,000 gold is not a pipe dream.
In a podcast interview on September 7, Jeff Currie, former Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, warned that as U.S. debt interest soars to $1.1 trillion (projected to reach $1.5 trillion) an
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Asian Stock Markets Mixed as Investors Look to U.S. CPI Data
Asian stock markets were slightly subdued on Tuesday, lacking cues from New York due to Monday's Labor Day holiday. Investors are now looking to U.S. consumer inflation data, which is due Friday. Mean
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Japan's nominal wage growth in July hit a new high since 1997, further supporting the central bank's interest rate hike.
Japan's nominal wages rose by 4.7% year-on-year in July, marking the largest single-month increase since January 1997 and significantly exceeding market expectations. Concurrently, real wages increase
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Asian Stocks Set to Edge Lower as Middle East Tensions Fuel Oil Price Rises and Inflation Concerns; Yen Holds Near February Highs
Asian stocks are poised for a decline as escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, intensifying inflation concerns and making investors wary of potential further monetary t
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Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have risen to 52%, as Donald Trump continues to pressure Warsh to cut rates.
Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have risen to 52%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged stands at 48%. This shift occurs as US Pres
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Federal Reserve officials are divided on their stance on interest rate hikes, with the market focusing on the August inflation data to be released this week.
On August 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the Federal Reserve is focused on price stability and committed to curbing high inflation. Following his remarks, the CME FedWatch Tool s
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The average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. reached $4.15 per gallon as of September 5, marking a new historical high for Labor Day.
The average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. reached $4.15 per gallon as of September 5, marking a new historical high for Labor Day.
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The U.S. 10-year government bond yield reached 4.791% during Monday's trading, approaching the 5% mark; the 30-year U.S. government bond yield rose to 5.24% last Friday, hitting a new nearly 20-year high.
Wallstreetcn analysis indicates that the sustained rise in long-term interest rates faces triple pressure from sticky inflation, dovish monetary policy, and expanding fiscal deficits. The market is co
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Bitcoin and Ethereum opened higher on Monday, with investors focusing on inflation data this week.
Bitcoin opened at $80,351.40 on Monday, September 7, US Eastern Time, up 0.7% from Sunday's open; Ethereum opened at $2,514.80, up 1.4% from Sunday's open. The market is currently closely watching key
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Deutsche Bank strategist Allen says traders are mistaken about interest rates or prices.
Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen states that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate hikes needed to combat inflation, given the upward pressure on prices.
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Stock Funds Are Up 12.6% for Year So Far
Despite various pressures, August marked another positive month for stock funds. Investors continue to face concerns including inflation, potential Federal Reserve interest-rate increases, and U.S.-Ir
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Cointelegraph Analysis: Markets Tilt Toward September Rate Hikes, With Upcoming CPI/PPI and Fed Decision Crucial for Bitcoin's $80,000 Support
Cointelegraph analysis suggests that this week's CPI and PPI prints, along with the Federal Reserve's September 16 rate decision, could determine whether Bitcoin can secure $80,000 as a support level.
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Al Jazeera: Geopolitical Conflicts and Refineries Prioritizing Diesel Production Lead to Global Marine Fuel Shortages; Middle East Exports Down 45%, Singapore Prices Up 76%
Al Jazeera reports that geopolitical conflicts (US-Iran conflict, Russia-Ukraine war) and refineries prioritizing the production of more profitable diesel have led to a global shortage of marine fuel.
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Nike (NKE) stock plunges 78% from 2021 peak to a 12-year low of $38.50, down 40% YTD; analysts believe it has not yet bottomed
Nike (NKE) stock has plummeted by about 78% from its November 2021 peak of nearly $180 per share, currently trading at $38.50 per share, marking its lowest price in approximately 12 years. The stock i
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Yahoo Finance: The US 10-year government bond yield hovers around 4.8%, a new high since November 2023.
Yahoo Finance analysis indicates that the US 10-year government bond yield is currently hovering around a multi-year high of 4.8%, having touched 4.818% earlier this month, its highest level since Nov
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JPMorgan Chase strategist Matejka says investors should buy stocks on dips given the strong corporate earnings outlook.
JPMorgan Chase strategist Matejka stated that despite rising global bond yields and inflation concerns, the stock market rally will continue given strong corporate earnings prospects, and investors sh
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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ECB's Lane: Eurozone HICP inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In a speech in Geneva, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, unveiled the ECB's September macroeconomic projections, forecasting HICP inflation for the Eurozone a
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McDonald's CEO expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist in restaurant industry
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated on Wednesday that the company does not anticipate a change in these conditions, viewing them as the new operating environment. He noted that in the most recent
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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U.S. September PMI data surged to a five-year high, with input costs reaching their highest since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns.
U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0, the Services PMI to 58.7, and the Composite PMI to 58.4. All figures substantially
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Germany's largest trade union, IG Metall, is seeking a 5% wage increase for 3.7 million workers, putting new pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
Germany's IG Metall union will launch a new round of wage negotiations in October, demanding a 5% pay raise for approximately 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical components industries to c
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Eastmoney Securities Research Institute Report: The world has not yet entered a phase of full tightening, and there is room to increase allocation to US Treasury bonds.
Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The re
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Analysts conclude their longest upgrade cycle in five years, holding a net negative view on U.S. corporate earnings prospects for the first time.
For the first time in months, equity analysts have turned net negative on the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reflecting concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on company
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Hong Kong's August overall consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY, underlying inflation 1.9%
Hong Kong's overall consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year in August, matching July's figure. The underlying inflation rate, which excludes one-off government relief measures, also remained unchang
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks warns: Out-of-control US fiscal discipline is the fundamental reason for rising interest rates, with the current deficit at about 6% of GDP.
Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks stated in his latest memo on Tuesday that the uncontrolled fiscal discipline in the U.S. is the fundamental reason for rising long-term interest rates, and that
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Singapore Core Inflation Rises Third Month to 2.2% in August, Highest Since 2024
Singapore's core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in August, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest
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Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day.
Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day, with the cost of filling up a tank increasing by 40% since the beginning of the year.
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ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
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Citigroup Survey: Inflation Overtakes Tariffs as Family Offices' Top Concern, Wealthy Flock to Gold and US Equities
Inflation has supplanted trade wars and tariffs as the top risk concern for ultra-high-net-worth individuals this year, with interest rate changes and global financial system stability closely followi
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Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
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Fed’s Collins Says Last Week’s Rate Hike Will Help Return Inflation to Goal
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she supported last week’s decision to raise interest rates, which she said would help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Demand Surges at South African Bond Auction Ahead of Rate Call
Demand surged at an auction of South African government bonds as investors sought relatively high yields ahead of inflation data and a central bank policy meeting scheduled for later this week.
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ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood dismisses Fed rate-hike fears, expects tech innovation to drive stronger growth and lower inflation
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood states that higher interest rates will not derail the technology boom, arguing that rapid innovation will drive stronger economic growth. Wood anticipates the current tech r
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U.S. Treasury yields retreated as the market focused on ADP employment data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that all Iranian airlines would be shut down starting Wednesday.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.943%, the 2-year yield dropped 1 basis point to 4.741%, and the 30-year yield declined 2 basis points to 5.272%. Investors are awaiting th
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
Inflation
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