Svmuu, QCP Capital released its latest market report, stating that after a prolonged consolidation around the $80,000 range, BTC has fallen below $78,000. The "long gamma" effect brought about by IBIT options had previously suppressed market volatility, but with over $4 billion in IBIT options expiring last Friday, this supporting force has significantly weakened.
QCP points out that the current macroeconomic environment is also deteriorating, with US Treasury yields reaching new highs for this cycle. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has risen to 4.62%, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.14%. Simultaneously, the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen to the 158-159 range, approaching the key level of 160, leading to market concerns over potential Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market and the risk of yen carry trade unwinding.
The report suggests that market sentiment currently remains largely dependent on progress in trade negotiations, but last week's meeting between Trump and Chinese leaders did not release specific details. Additionally, with rising oil prices and US inflation remaining high, the market has begun to price in the probability of a further 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve before January next year, with the current anticipated probability standing at approximately 50% to 60%.
QCP stated that without clearer progress on tariff policies or the US-Iran situation, the crypto market is highly likely to continue its consolidation pattern. Although short-term volatility briefly spiked during this decline, it has already begun to recede, and selling call options strategies may once again push BTC prices to fluctuate around the current range.