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Federal Reserve
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Dollar ticks up 0.05% to 99.85, underpinned by renewed Iran tensions and focus on upcoming US inflation data
The US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.85, supported by escalating tensions in the Gulf region and market anticipation of crucial US economic data, particularly inflation figures. Oil prices edged highe
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US CPI inflation data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, may further reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, following weak July jobs reports.
The odds of a September tightening currently stand just below 50%. However, technology goods, including those from Apple, could lead to a firmer-than-expected inflation reading due to recent price hik
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CNBC: AI's expensive build-out and slow corporate adoption are causing short-term inflationary pressures, rather than the previously predicted deflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation efforts.
Tech leaders like Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have predicted that AI will bring about deflationary effects. However, the current rollout of AI in the economy is encountering corporate inertia,
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Metzler Capital Markets analysts believe today's U.S. inflation data will have limited influence on the Federal Reserve's September rate decision.
The analysts noted that while the data could drive short-term market movements, the Fed is likely to await additional upcoming data releases, including producer price index and personal consumption ex
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Cleveland Fed President Hammack warns one rate hike likely insufficient to curb inflation, citing wage erosion
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack stated in an interview that a single 25 basis point rate hike would likely not be enough to combat the current inflation, though she did not sp
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Pimco Sees Fed on Hold in 2026 as Inflation Moderates
Pimco Sees Fed on Hold in 2026 as Inflation Moderates
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Pimco's Seidner Says Market Angst Over Fed Credibility is Overdone, US Bond Yields Attractive
Pimco's Seidner Says Market Angst Over Fed Credibility is Overdone, US Bond Yields Attractive
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LBMA survey shows the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy becomes the decisive factor influencing gold price forecasts, analysts lower 2026 gold price expectations
Analysts have lowered their gold price forecasts for 2026, according to the mid-year survey released Tuesday by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). The survey noted that the Federal Reserve'
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Treasury Yields and Dollar Remain Stable Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data, as Investors Await Clues on Fed's Rate Hike Path.
Treasury Yields and Dollar Remain Stable Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data, as Investors Await Clues on Fed's Rate Hike Path.
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Boston Fed President Susan Collins says poorer Americans are struggling to make ends meet, and she would back a September interest rate rise if inflation remains hot.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins says poorer Americans are struggling to make ends meet, and she would back a September interest rate rise if inflation remains hot.
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Deutsche Bank strategists warn: The market is pricing in a "non-existent perfect combination," simultaneously betting on strong growth, limited rate hikes, and controllable oil prices, leaving almost no room for error regarding policy, inflation, and geopolitical situations.
In his latest report, Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen points out that the current market is simultaneously betting on strong economic growth, limited interest rate hikes by the Federal Rese
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Trend-following funds (CTAs) have taken a record-breaking short position in global bonds, involving over $400 billion in capital, with this week's US CPI report expected to be a key factor for profits and losses.
Trend funds (commodity trading advisors, CTAs) have increased their short bets on global bonds to a record level, with assets under management estimated to exceed $400 billion. UBS data shows that CTA
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JPMorgan Chase Asset Management: The Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising interest rates until inflation cools, as core PCE remains above 3%
Kelsey Berro, a fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Chase Asset Management, stated that despite recent signals of slowing inflation and market expectations of only a modest 0.2% month-over-mont
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Markets anticipate a modest increase in the U.S. July CPI month-over-month, with core CPI month-over-month projected at 0.2%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. The market generally expects the July overall CPI to increase by only 0.1% month-over-month, w
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FOMC members will be highly focused on Wednesday's July month-over-month inflation change to assess the feasibility of achieving the 2% inflation target without further policy tightening; the new Federal Reserve Chair has previously expressed disinterest in such high-frequency data-driven frameworks.
X platform commentator Nick Timiraos noted that more Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have indicated they will closely monitor the next few price level readings to determin
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Fed's Goolsbee: Biggest Problem Facing the Economy Is Inflation
Fed's Goolsbee: Biggest Problem Facing the Economy Is Inflation
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Analysis indicates that the market currently anticipates a 53% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September, and recommends FDRR, a dividend fund designed to navigate a rising rate environment.
According to Yahoo Finance analysis, the market currently anticipates a 53% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its September meeting (Polymarket data), while futures markets
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The Motley Fool Analyst Predicts Gold Will Rebound to Over $5,000 Per Ounce Before Year-End
Analyst David Jagielski believes gold will return to its record highs, citing concerns about the stock market, potential interest rate hikes by the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, ongoing U.S.-Iran deal ch
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MarketWatch analysis: Fed's rate hike decision hinges on July CPI report
According to MarketWatch analysis, the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision will largely depend on the July consumer-price index (CPI) report, which is due out Wednesday. While a surprisi
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JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon warns investors: Inflation may not decline due to strong spending in AI sector
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated that strong spending in artificial intelligence (AI) could prevent inflation from falling and might prompt Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to raise interest
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Silver futures opened 1% higher on Tuesday at $65.94/ounce, breaking above $65 for the first time since June, influenced by employment data and the situation in Iran.
Silver September futures reached $65.45 at 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday. The surge was primarily driven by last week's employment report, which reduced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in Septem
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Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen, believes the Federal Reserve will take a wait-and-see approach to interest rates.
Nuveen Global Investment Strategist Laura Cooper discussed the rise in real yields and the Federal Reserve's rationale for tightening policy on Bloomberg, and expressed the above views in this context
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Kansas City Fed President Schmid calls inflation his primary concern, advocates for tighter policy; US 30-year fixed mortgage rate rises to 6.69%
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid stated in an August 4 speech that inflation is his primary concern, deeming it "too high" and requiring "tighter policy" to bring it back to the Feder
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Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, Timmer, warns: Rising US Treasury yields are competing for funds with risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin, and history shows market corrections are often painful.
CoinDesk cited an analysis by Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments' director of global macro, pointing out that U.S. government bond yields (the risk-free rate in financial markets) are rising again,
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Arthur Hayes: AI Giant Equity Dilution May Weigh on Stock Prices, Short-Term Bearish for Bitcoin, While Central Bank Bailouts Hold Long-Term Promise
Arthur Hayes: AI Giant Equity Dilution May Weigh on Stock Prices, Short-Term Bearish for Bitcoin, While Central Bank Bailouts Hold Long-Term Promise
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Donald Trump's special committee hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has been postponed to December 14.
The special committee hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, initiated by Donald Trump, has been postponed to December 14, White House officials revealed on Wednesday. Donald Trump esta
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Nick Timiraos: A Democratic Senate would pose the strongest check on Donald Trump's reshaping of the Federal Reserve
Nick Timiraos: A Democratic Senate victory would serve as the most powerful check on Donald Trump's reshaping of the Federal Reserve. If any Federal Reserve Board of Governors vacancies arise in the f
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Lombard Odier Economists: A Democratic Senate Win Helps Reduce Uncertainty Around Fed Independence
According to Dow Jones Market Talk, Samy Chaar, Chief Economist at Lombard Odier, believes that a Democratic victory in the Senate would provide a check on Donald Trump's key institutional personnel n
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According to a Federal Reserve survey on November 2, banks tightened their lending standards for non-bank financial institutions, which could restrict financing for Bitcoin investors.
According to a lending survey released by the Federal Reserve on November 2, banks tightened their lending standards for non-bank financial institutions, while demand from commercial lenders and priva
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U.S. Treasuries fell due to strong U.S. job openings data and oil price volatility.
US job openings data exceeded economists' expectations, indicating a still robust labor market, which could give the Federal Reserve room to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Meanwhile, oil pric
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U.S. factory activity strengthened in October, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 59.0, which could complicate Bitcoin's hopes for interest rate cuts.
U.S. factory activity strengthened in October, with the ISM Production Index rising to 59.0, potentially complicating Bitcoin's hopes for rate cuts. A report released by the Institute for Supply Manag
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Bitcoin Trades Near $77,500 as US Midterm Voting Begins, Influenced by Binance Hack and Macro Factors
Bitcoin traded near $77,500 on Tuesday morning as polls opened for the U.S. midterm elections, down about 0.6% on the day. The price action is pressured by factors including a record $6.3 billion Bina
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Nick Timiraos reposts a 2000 news article: Tech bubble executives ignored rate hike risks, companies went bankrupt nine months later.
Nick Timiraos reposted an old news story from 2000, recalling the tale of Sy Picon during the dot-com bubble. In January 2000, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sy Picon, founder of Sy Picon, a di
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US Treasuries Rise, Yields Extend Slide as Oil Prices Tumble
US Treasuries rose, extending their biggest monthly advance in over two years, as tumbling oil prices eased concerns about inflation pressure potentially leading to additional Federal Reserve interest
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Citi FX traders see continued carry trade opportunities
Citigroup Inc.'s US currency desk expects the carry trade to keep offering opportunities for investors, even though the strategy may struggle to replicate a period of standout returns. Fuad Muvdi, hea
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh plans to reduce the number of interest rate votes to just six times per year starting in 2028, which economists say could delay relief for borrowers.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh announced plans to reduce the number of interest rate setting votes over the next two years. Specifically, in 2027, one of the Federal Reserve's eight meetings will not
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S&P 500 historically sees strong gains after midterm elections, averaging 13.7% one year later
A CNBC analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1980 through 2024 shows the index rose an average of 13.7% one year after midterm elections, with positive returns in 91% of cases. The S&P 500 was up after all
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OPEC+ maintained its oil production targets, which could exacerbate inflation concerns and limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing, posing a new macro test for Bitcoin.
OPEC+ decided on November 1 to maintain its oil production targets for December, despite ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East, a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and strength
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Fed study finds Treasury dealers' financing burden can outlast their bond holdings, potentially impacting crypto credit markets
A Federal Reserve staff research, published on October 30, indicates that Treasury dealers may continue to finance customer bonds even after their own auction inventory has largely cleared. This linge
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Industry Insiders: Hong Kong Family Offices Still Interested in Overseas Real Estate Investment
According to the South China Morning Post, industry professionals interviewed believe that Hong Kong family offices' interest in real estate investments in Europe, the US, and Japan may not wane even
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US banks are owed $349B by private credit funds, as PIK interest payments rise to 10% of loans
US-domiciled private credit vehicles owed banks $349 billion at the end of 2025, according to a Federal Reserve report published on October 16, 2026. The report highlights that private credit funds ca
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U.S. stocks fell, Intel's share price plummeted, and Federal Reserve officials hinted at supporting interest rate hikes.
U.S. stocks fell, with Intel's share price dropping sharply, as Federal Reserve officials hinted at support for interest rate hikes, and a tech stock sell-off boosted U.S. Treasuries. Additionally, Bi
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Dallas Fed President Logan supported this week's Federal Reserve decision but still believes two more rate hikes are needed.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan expressed support for the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates this week, but she continues to believe the Federal Reserve still needs to raise rates
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem Says More Rate Hikes Needed Soon to Bring Inflation to Target
St. Louis Fed President Musalem Says More Rate Hikes Needed Soon to Bring Inflation to Target
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem: It will be necessary to tighten monetary policy further "soon" to address high inflation and loose financial conditions.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday that he judges it necessary to tighten monetary policy further "soon." He noted that despite the Federal Reserve's decision this week to keep int
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem: Judged it necessary to further tighten monetary policy "soon," otherwise inflation could be too high unless the Federal Reserve raises rates further.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that he judges it necessary to "soon" further tighten monetary policy. He outlined two inflation scenarios, with the one he considers more likely being:
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Federal Reserve official Musalem called for prompt interest rate hikes to restore price stability, stating that inflation risks persist and financial conditions remain loose.
Federal Reserve official Alberto Musalem stated that given persistent and still upward-biased inflation risks, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates again "soon" to restore price stability
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Federal Reserve insider Nick Timiraos: US Q3 employer benefit costs rose by 3.9%, exceeding wage growth of 3.1%, due to a surge in health insurance costs.
Federal Reserve insider Nick Timiraos, citing Employment Cost Index (ECI) data, noted that U.S. employer benefit costs surged by 3.9% in the third quarter, surpassing the 3.1% growth in wages and sala
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The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee Sounds AI Inflation Alarm: Can the Crypto Market Hold the $75,000 Mark?
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee warned that excessive market expectations for AI productivity could lead to rising inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and potentially even triggering stagflation. This warning has garnered attention across global financial markets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility recently. After surpassing the $80,000 mark, the market is closely watching whether it can consistently hold the critical support level of $75,000 amidst macroeconomic headwinds.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
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From Event to Your Screen: The Four Hurdles a Financial News Alert Must Clear
By the time the news is seen, half the market move has already happened. The problem often lies not in judgment, but in the sequence of information arrival. A financial news flash, from event occurrence to reaching the reader, must pass through four checkpoints: source coverage, deduplication and compression, traceable origin, and multi-language synchronization. This article breaks down this chain and provides three questions for ordinary investors to filter out noise.
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What is FED Coin? An Analysis of the Cryptocurrency of the Same Name and the Concept of the Federal Reserve's Digital Currency
The term "FED coin" carries a dual meaning within the cryptocurrency space: it can refer to low-market-cap cryptocurrencies circulating on the market, such as "Federal Reserve (FED)" or "FEDCOIN," which have no official affiliation with the Federal Reserve System and exhibit extremely low trading volumes; alternatively, it may informally refer to the concept of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) that the Federal Reserve is currently researching and exploring. This article will elaborate on the background, current status, and related developments of these two types of "FED coins" separately.
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Bitcoin Breaks $80,000: Buying Emerges Amid Volatile Federal Reserve Policy Expectations, Who's Positioning?
Bitcoin's price recently surged from around $63,000 in mid-August, briefly breaking above $81,000 on August 26, setting a multi-month high. This rally comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy fluctuate; the CME tool still shows a high probability of maintaining current interest rates, but expectations for a rate hike within the year have increased. On-chain data indicates that large "whale" investors actively accumulated Bitcoin when it retested the $60,000 mark, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded strong net inflows, suggesting that institutional capital is a significant driver of this rebound.
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Bitcoin tops $80,000, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike pause grow, who is actively positioning?
As of August 25, 2026, Bitcoin's price surpassed $80,000, marking its best week since 2023. This strong rebound comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in September are rising, with the probability of a pause in rate hikes briefly reaching 70%. Amid changing macroeconomic conditions and fluctuating ETF capital flows, large Bitcoin holders (whales) and institutional investors have emerged as the primary buying force, actively buying the dips and demonstrating a strategic willingness to allocate to scarce assets.
Federal Reserve
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